Right this very minute, ESPN2's First Take is interviewing a William Penn impersonator...about a curse...based on the fact that there are now buildings in Philadelphia that reach higher than his likeness perched atop City Hall. He was asked how this will affect their chances of winning the World Series and what he thought of the city putting jerseys on the statue in the past.
Let that fester for a moment.
William Penn. Impersonator. Being interviewed. On ESPN. About a "curse".
It really makes those mohawks and "9=8" shirts seem sensible and classy doesn't it.
Showing posts with label insanity. Show all posts
Showing posts with label insanity. Show all posts
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Saturday, July 12, 2008
A Match for the Ages
Okay, we get it guys. People want the NFL to be a 12 month deal. They want year round NFL coverage ranging from the strategy behind the X's and O's to an intrusive view of the players' lives. I get that.
And still, this is not necessary.
As a blogger, I think this could be a pretty cool idea for a feature length article: take all the base salaries in the NFL, and make a 53 man roster out of the players around their league: keeping the total payroll under 116 million, which is the NFL salary cap.
It's not necessary to have this done twice.
It's really, really dumb to have the two "teams" "play".
To have the "winner" of the game decided by Dr. Z, it just defies words.
"I know you like the Lombardies and you're gonna have to lay 12½."
To recap:
1. Michael Lombardi and Bucky Brooks now are in charge of make believe teams assembled under a ficticious 116 dollar cap.
2. The teams will clash in "Dream Game 2008"
3. The line on said game is 12.5
Now, Dr. Z gives us a horrifically scary play by play recap of the game.
Alright, let's recap:
1. The "Lombardi's" win 34-20
2. Those who took the Lombardi's and the points just beat the spread
3. Dr. Z lost against the spread -- on a game that was played inside his own head
Finally, since this post is in desperate need of common sense, I give you Ross Tucker, who apparently does have the mental capacity to put the basic point of this exercise into focus...the point that all 4 of the prior writers totally missed:
Just remember: Michael Lombardi and Bucky Brooks actually worked on the side of football that is responsible for these decisions. Lombardi is in part responsible for the mess that is the Oakland Raiders today. Tucker, obviously, was a player. Which of course, proves that the concept of value is hardly rocket science. It's simply the most important concept in the game, and one that most execs don't quite understand as well as they should.
And still, this is not necessary.
As a blogger, I think this could be a pretty cool idea for a feature length article: take all the base salaries in the NFL, and make a 53 man roster out of the players around their league: keeping the total payroll under 116 million, which is the NFL salary cap.
It's not necessary to have this done twice.
It's really, really dumb to have the two "teams" "play".
To have the "winner" of the game decided by Dr. Z, it just defies words.
"I know you like the Lombardies and you're gonna have to lay 12½."
To recap:
1. Michael Lombardi and Bucky Brooks now are in charge of make believe teams assembled under a ficticious 116 dollar cap.
2. The teams will clash in "Dream Game 2008"
3. The line on said game is 12.5
Now, Dr. Z gives us a horrifically scary play by play recap of the game.
Seven minutes left. Brady goes to work. The Brooksies have dressed only six D-linemen and that's their undoing. They're exhausted. The rotation is killing them. The rush has died. Brady works them over with his mini-backs, Maurice Jones-Drew and Ahmad Bradshaw. With three minutes to go, he runs Jones-Drew on a sucker-trap for six points. The Brooksies get the ball at midfield, after a nifty return by Devin Hester. Will this be an overtime contest, the first one in a title game since Colts-Giants?
But the numbers game kills Brees, too. The Lombardies have loaded their lineup with D-linemen, nine, count'em, nine! On third-and-long, the well-rested pair of wingmen, Dwight Freeney and Justin Tuck, get him in a squeeze and knock the ball loose. The Lombardies only have to run the clock now, but on third and long they run a draw play, over Shaun Rogers, who is too tired to get out of his stance, and little Maurice breaks it for 40 yards and the last score of the game, which gives the Lombardies a 34-20 victory. Dr. Z's bet, taking the 12½, sinks beneath the waves with all hands singing Nearer My God To Thee.
Alright, let's recap:
1. The "Lombardi's" win 34-20
2. Those who took the Lombardi's and the points just beat the spread
3. Dr. Z lost against the spread -- on a game that was played inside his own head
Finally, since this post is in desperate need of common sense, I give you Ross Tucker, who apparently does have the mental capacity to put the basic point of this exercise into focus...the point that all 4 of the prior writers totally missed:
The key is to attempt to compile all of the young players around the league drafted after the first round that have already proven themselves to be quality NFL players but have not yet received their second contracts. That is where all of the value is, both in the real NFL and in the Salary Cap Roster Challenge. Unlike the NFL, where you have to draft well in order to create that value, the Salary Cap Roster Challenge allows the combatants to selectively scour the league and scoop up all of the young players that have clearly outplayed their rookie contracts, thereby creating an enormously attractive value proposition for both their actual franchises and their virtual Roster Challenge teams.
Players that produce at a high level for a relatively paltry sum include the Saints' Marques Colston and Jahri Evans, the Giants' Ahmad Bradshaw and Kevin Boss and the Packers' Ryan Grant, Greg Jennings and James Jones, just to name a few. It also would have been easy to put a solid line together with the likes of the Bucs' Jeremy Trueblood and Aaron Sears. And there's no doubt I would have fought tooth and nail to get Devin Hester on my team -- $795,000 for a game-changer is a no-brainer.
Just remember: Michael Lombardi and Bucky Brooks actually worked on the side of football that is responsible for these decisions. Lombardi is in part responsible for the mess that is the Oakland Raiders today. Tucker, obviously, was a player. Which of course, proves that the concept of value is hardly rocket science. It's simply the most important concept in the game, and one that most execs don't quite understand as well as they should.
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
Dr. Z Effectively Ends Vikings' Title Hopes
By picking them to win it all.
Last year, I locked in my Super Bowl pick early and felt very good about the choice. For once, I wasn't trying to do a roster breakdown or getting myself all tied up in strengths and weaknesses. I was looking for a team with a chip on its shoulder, one that would be coming into the season with something to prove, a hungry team, nasty, etc.
Yeah, I mean, when any sportswriter is fatigued from a long and tiring day of careful analysis and number crunching...I suppose the next step is to just make up a bunch of intangibles as a defense for picking
The Saints were my Super Bowl winner.
(the Saints) to win the Super Bowl.
Anyway, the Saints didn't really look any worse at the end of the season than they did when Dr. Z picked them. The offense, passing offense at least, really didn't go anywhere from the prior year. Per DVOA, the Saints had the very worst pass D in the NFL last season. I don't think they were expected to be that bad, but they were 22nd against the pass in 2006, so one might assume that their 11 win season was sort of a fluke.
Anyway 7-9 wasn't a particularly poor season for them. They were just a really weak Super Bowl pick.
So why do I get this real hunch about [the Vikings]? OK, yeah, right now they're my choice for the winner of Supe (sic) XXIII. And here's why:
Let's get down to basics. Run the ball. Stop the run. Best in the league at both last year. I can't help it -- I'm hooked on the fundamentals. Their middle triangle of tackles Kevin and Pat Williams, backed up by E.J. Henderson, is classic, and now there's a serious element added to that mix.
DVOA doesn't actually have the Vikings the best at either, but I think I can ignore this point for now. They had Y/C numbers in the 3-4 range on defense, and in the 5-6 range on offense: which are both phenomenal. They were the first team in NFL history to finish with a greater than 2.8 yard difference between rushing yards for and against per play. Very good.
Of course, there are two major problems with this argument:
1) Assumption that trends will carry over from one year to the next. Sure the personnel is much of the same. But ESPECIALLY in the case of Pat Williams (dude's 36!), it's not smart to assume that career high performance is repeatable. And with Adrian Peterson's rookie year: the smart money is on his second season being not as good. Tremendous talent, but if he only averages 4.8 (only?) YPC, does this SB pick look smart then? Also:
2) Last year with elite rushing and rush stopping units (that really have zero room for improvement), the Vikings won (only!) 8 games and posted a 4.9% total DVOA, losing a must win game at home to a superior Redskin team in Week 16.
So yes, Dr. Z is predicting that 1) The Vikings will sustain their run production, and 2) somehow, they will win more games.
Of course, part of that somehow could be:
A trade with the Chiefs brought them defensive end Jared Allen in April. He brings with him the 2007 NFL sack title, plus a two-game DUI suspension at the beginning of the year. A gamble? Childress says no. Allen says he's on the wagon.
...
It's almost a miracle to get a guy like that in a trade. Sack specialists are like diamonds, and Allen's a young one -- only 26 years old! And he's not one of those wild-angle loopers who leaves a couple of acres inside for the runners. He's a technician who honors the down home of the game.
What the fuck is the "down home of the game"?!
I honestly think that Jared Allen is one of the five best defensive players in the game. There is no doubt in my mind that the 2008 Vikings are a better defensive team with Jared Allen than without him. He's probably worth every penny he got. And the Vikings do need a pass rush.
"Why," I was asked, "did Allen's production usually fall off in the second half?" And my answer was because he was on the field too much. The way the game is now, no defensive lineman, especially an edge rusher with a high motor, can do it without relief. And the Chiefs kept Allen on the field.
Allen's production really didn't fall off in the second half. Sure, a majority of his sacks came in the first half of ball games, but the Chiefs ranked 3rd (read: Third) in adjusted sack rate last year, so that 2nd half bs was probably just a sample size issue.
Anyway, I'm helping you make your argument, which isn't my job here.
Pass rush begets pass defense, which begets better statistics than the Vikings had last year, one of their big failings. They finished last in yards allowed. Where's the fix there? Madieu Williams, an active free safety for the Bengals last year. Charlie Gordon, a good, quick, free-agent cornerback.
I'll accept Williams being a decent addition, he's younger than the departed Dwight Smith -- but probably not any better.
Here's Charlie Gordon's PFR page. Let me know if you see anything there that screams Super Bowl caliber pass defense.
...
...
Okay, then. Moving on.
And I know where we're headed. Tarvaris Jackson, QB. Just 25 years old. Fine athlete, terrific scrambler, able to make big plays, but so far in his two years in the league, not enough of them. Sixth from the bottom among the ranked passers last year. When does it happen? Third year? Fourth? Not at all?
America voted: and they think it's...Not at all!
"(says Vikings coach Brad Childress) Besides the production, there's something to walking into the building every day and being the man. I mean every day. Tavaris is pretty good with that."
Tavaris Jackson, 2007
Comp %: 58.2%
QB Rating: 70.8
DVOA: -12.4%
the "man" efficency: 101.9
"I told him that when those legs go, you're going to have to learn to rely on other things," the coach says. "You've got to evolve. It's like a wounded animal. All the other senses are heightened. And he went out and had some of his most accurate games, passing the ball.
For 3 weeks (12-14), Jackson did an impressive impersonation of an NFL QB.
The next two weeks: 1 TD, 5 INTs.
Money.
(Childress, still) "When I got the job here, well, in my wildest dreams I didn't think I was going to have to get rid of a franchise quarterback. But after three weeks in the spring, it was just obvious that it wasn't going to work, with Daunte Culpepper. So I replaced him, and everybody pilloried us.
"Daunte was a guy who always used his legs. He wasn't an anticipatory thrower. He had to see the whites of their eyes. And once he got hurt, well, coming back from the injury, he couldn't play that way."
Per Wikipedia: "The pillory was a device used in punishment by public humiliation and often additional, sometimes lethal, physical abuse."
Given the circumstances: Justified.
(Again, Childress)"As a franchise quarterback, there's the matter of the work ethic, putting in your hours," Childress says. "Tarvaris knows that, how important it is that people see you working when they come in. Is he in the right place for a guy evolving? Yeah, I'm convinced he's got what it takes.
Except that
"We just have to see how he does on the field."
I suppose the next step is to just make up a bunch of intangibles as a defense for picking (the Vikings) to win the Super Bowl.
(Zimmerman here) So en fin, do I like the Vikings to go all the way? Well, yeah, why not? A feeling of destiny, that's what I sense about Brad Childress and his baby quarterback.
Last year, I locked in my Super Bowl pick early and felt very good about the choice. For once, I wasn't trying to do a roster breakdown or getting myself all tied up in strengths and weaknesses. I was looking for a team with a chip on its shoulder, one that would be coming into the season with something to prove, a hungry team, nasty, etc.
Yeah, I mean, when any sportswriter is fatigued from a long and tiring day of careful analysis and number crunching...I suppose the next step is to just make up a bunch of intangibles as a defense for picking
The Saints were my Super Bowl winner.
(the Saints) to win the Super Bowl.
Anyway, the Saints didn't really look any worse at the end of the season than they did when Dr. Z picked them. The offense, passing offense at least, really didn't go anywhere from the prior year. Per DVOA, the Saints had the very worst pass D in the NFL last season. I don't think they were expected to be that bad, but they were 22nd against the pass in 2006, so one might assume that their 11 win season was sort of a fluke.
Anyway 7-9 wasn't a particularly poor season for them. They were just a really weak Super Bowl pick.
So why do I get this real hunch about [the Vikings]? OK, yeah, right now they're my choice for the winner of Supe (sic) XXIII. And here's why:
Let's get down to basics. Run the ball. Stop the run. Best in the league at both last year. I can't help it -- I'm hooked on the fundamentals. Their middle triangle of tackles Kevin and Pat Williams, backed up by E.J. Henderson, is classic, and now there's a serious element added to that mix.
DVOA doesn't actually have the Vikings the best at either, but I think I can ignore this point for now. They had Y/C numbers in the 3-4 range on defense, and in the 5-6 range on offense: which are both phenomenal. They were the first team in NFL history to finish with a greater than 2.8 yard difference between rushing yards for and against per play. Very good.
Of course, there are two major problems with this argument:
1) Assumption that trends will carry over from one year to the next. Sure the personnel is much of the same. But ESPECIALLY in the case of Pat Williams (dude's 36!), it's not smart to assume that career high performance is repeatable. And with Adrian Peterson's rookie year: the smart money is on his second season being not as good. Tremendous talent, but if he only averages 4.8 (only?) YPC, does this SB pick look smart then? Also:
2) Last year with elite rushing and rush stopping units (that really have zero room for improvement), the Vikings won (only!) 8 games and posted a 4.9% total DVOA, losing a must win game at home to a superior Redskin team in Week 16.
So yes, Dr. Z is predicting that 1) The Vikings will sustain their run production, and 2) somehow, they will win more games.
Of course, part of that somehow could be:
A trade with the Chiefs brought them defensive end Jared Allen in April. He brings with him the 2007 NFL sack title, plus a two-game DUI suspension at the beginning of the year. A gamble? Childress says no. Allen says he's on the wagon.
...
It's almost a miracle to get a guy like that in a trade. Sack specialists are like diamonds, and Allen's a young one -- only 26 years old! And he's not one of those wild-angle loopers who leaves a couple of acres inside for the runners. He's a technician who honors the down home of the game.
What the fuck is the "down home of the game"?!
I honestly think that Jared Allen is one of the five best defensive players in the game. There is no doubt in my mind that the 2008 Vikings are a better defensive team with Jared Allen than without him. He's probably worth every penny he got. And the Vikings do need a pass rush.
"Why," I was asked, "did Allen's production usually fall off in the second half?" And my answer was because he was on the field too much. The way the game is now, no defensive lineman, especially an edge rusher with a high motor, can do it without relief. And the Chiefs kept Allen on the field.
Allen's production really didn't fall off in the second half. Sure, a majority of his sacks came in the first half of ball games, but the Chiefs ranked 3rd (read: Third) in adjusted sack rate last year, so that 2nd half bs was probably just a sample size issue.
Anyway, I'm helping you make your argument, which isn't my job here.
Pass rush begets pass defense, which begets better statistics than the Vikings had last year, one of their big failings. They finished last in yards allowed. Where's the fix there? Madieu Williams, an active free safety for the Bengals last year. Charlie Gordon, a good, quick, free-agent cornerback.
I'll accept Williams being a decent addition, he's younger than the departed Dwight Smith -- but probably not any better.
Here's Charlie Gordon's PFR page. Let me know if you see anything there that screams Super Bowl caliber pass defense.
...
...
Okay, then. Moving on.
And I know where we're headed. Tarvaris Jackson, QB. Just 25 years old. Fine athlete, terrific scrambler, able to make big plays, but so far in his two years in the league, not enough of them. Sixth from the bottom among the ranked passers last year. When does it happen? Third year? Fourth? Not at all?
America voted: and they think it's...Not at all!
"(says Vikings coach Brad Childress) Besides the production, there's something to walking into the building every day and being the man. I mean every day. Tavaris is pretty good with that."
Tavaris Jackson, 2007
Comp %: 58.2%
QB Rating: 70.8
DVOA: -12.4%
the "man" efficency: 101.9
"I told him that when those legs go, you're going to have to learn to rely on other things," the coach says. "You've got to evolve. It's like a wounded animal. All the other senses are heightened. And he went out and had some of his most accurate games, passing the ball.
For 3 weeks (12-14), Jackson did an impressive impersonation of an NFL QB.
The next two weeks: 1 TD, 5 INTs.
Money.
(Childress, still) "When I got the job here, well, in my wildest dreams I didn't think I was going to have to get rid of a franchise quarterback. But after three weeks in the spring, it was just obvious that it wasn't going to work, with Daunte Culpepper. So I replaced him, and everybody pilloried us.
"Daunte was a guy who always used his legs. He wasn't an anticipatory thrower. He had to see the whites of their eyes. And once he got hurt, well, coming back from the injury, he couldn't play that way."
Per Wikipedia: "The pillory was a device used in punishment by public humiliation and often additional, sometimes lethal, physical abuse."
Given the circumstances: Justified.
(Again, Childress)"As a franchise quarterback, there's the matter of the work ethic, putting in your hours," Childress says. "Tarvaris knows that, how important it is that people see you working when they come in. Is he in the right place for a guy evolving? Yeah, I'm convinced he's got what it takes.
Except that
"We just have to see how he does on the field."
I suppose the next step is to just make up a bunch of intangibles as a defense for picking (the Vikings) to win the Super Bowl.
(Zimmerman here) So en fin, do I like the Vikings to go all the way? Well, yeah, why not? A feeling of destiny, that's what I sense about Brad Childress and his baby quarterback.
Tuesday, June 3, 2008
Dynamic Running Duos
Jeremy Green, y'all:
One recent trend in the NFL is that teams are creating depth at running back and more and more teams are using a two-back system. Here's a look at [five] duos that will have success this season and [five] others that will struggle.
Five and five here. That's one third of the NFL. Fine. Green mentions Minnesota and Jacksonville at the top of his list. Both are totally deserving tandems. So far so good.
Dallas' Marion Barber and Felix Jones
As soon as the Cowboys selected Jones, I started envisioning how this backfield would shape up in 2008. The rest of the NFC East likely started having nightmares. Now that Julius Jones has left for Seattle, Barber is now the lead back. He is one of the most physical runners in the NFL and leaves a mark when he runs over a defender. Jones' quickness and speed make him the perfect complement. One of the toughest adjustments a defense has to make is when it goes from seeing a physical, between-the-tackles runner to a speed guy. In terms of pure explosiveness when combining strength and speed, this duo is unmatched.
Okay, Marion Barber is very good, runs with power and authority, is a great receiver out of the backfield. But he doesn't break the big run, so we give him...Felix Jones. Who did not start in college. And has never played a down in the NFL.
This would be one think if it was Barber and Darren McFadden. But it's pure speculation right now that Felix Jones will ever be an NFL quality back. Well, whatever. You're stretching here, Jeremy Green, but you still have two more chances to,
Pittsburgh's Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall
Pittsburgh wasn't supposed to be on this list. But then the second-best rookie running back in the 2008 class fell into the Steelers' laps. Though Parker is a speed back who has shown he can carry the load, depth has been a concern for the Steelers. Plus, Parker is coming back from a season-ending injury, so adding Mendenhall made sense. He is a physical runner who should provide nice balance in the backfield to "Fast Willie" and a Pittsburgh offense that will try to re-establish its tough, blue-collar mentality this season.
Willie Parker DVOA (2007): -11.3%
Willie Parker DVOA (2006): 1.1%
Willie Parker DVOA (2005): 0.2%
Alright. In Willie Parker's BEST season, he was an average back. Last year, at age 27, he averaged 4.1 yards/carry. He was a probowler the last two seasons, though in 2007, Najeh Davenport was twice as valuable in half as many touches (20.4% DVOA). Willie Parker also broke his leg in December 2007.
Willie Parker is good enough to start somewhere in the NFL, but he's not a top running back in the league. Probably not even top 25.
Mendenhall has never played a down. He's a good prospect with a lot of hype, and that's the kind of player that Jeremy Green wants on his team. Of course he just tried that Felix Jones could improve the Running Back situation in Dallas now that that lazy bum Julius Jones is finally elsewhere.
Seattle's Julius Jones and T.J. Duckett
Unhappy with his backfield, Mike Holmgren decided to shake things up. In a rare move, the Seahawks dipped into the unrestricted free-agent running back market twice in the offseason in an effort to get one star running back via two bodies. A change of scenery will help Jones, who was never given a full opportunity to succeed in Dallas. Once he got the "soft" label, his days of being given the opportunity to carry the load went by the wayside. Duckett is a journeyman but is a proven backup with solid size and the power to run between the tackles.
Oh. My. Fucking. God.
Gentlemen, your fifth most feared RB tandem in the NFL today: some guy who got replaced by a rookie in Dallas, and TJ Duckett.
TJ Duckett -- one of the very worst first round running back picks of the last ten years. Literally did not carry the ball 20 times in 2005, his 4th and final season in Atlanta, despite being healthy the whole year. Got traded to Washington, and posted a DVOA of -20.8% in a (rightfully) small sample size. Better last year, still didn't qualify for the DVOA leaderboard.
Now (apparently) part of one of the five best duos in the NFL. Better than Bradshaw and Jacobs. Better than Turner/Norwood. Better than Tomlinson/Sproles. Better than Westbrook/Booker.
For the rest of the article, a good case could be made for each of the five "Destined Duds" to be more successful this year than TJ Duckett and Julius Jones, and especially so with Ronnie Brown who was so good last year before getting injured that his combined rushing and receiving DPAR in seven games ranked fifth for all RBs...over the entire fucking season.
And yes, he is coming off a torn ACL and Ricky Williams can no longer be counted on, but remember: Willie Parker broke his fucking leg.
One recent trend in the NFL is that teams are creating depth at running back and more and more teams are using a two-back system. Here's a look at [five] duos that will have success this season and [five] others that will struggle.
Five and five here. That's one third of the NFL. Fine. Green mentions Minnesota and Jacksonville at the top of his list. Both are totally deserving tandems. So far so good.
Dallas' Marion Barber and Felix Jones
As soon as the Cowboys selected Jones, I started envisioning how this backfield would shape up in 2008. The rest of the NFC East likely started having nightmares. Now that Julius Jones has left for Seattle, Barber is now the lead back. He is one of the most physical runners in the NFL and leaves a mark when he runs over a defender. Jones' quickness and speed make him the perfect complement. One of the toughest adjustments a defense has to make is when it goes from seeing a physical, between-the-tackles runner to a speed guy. In terms of pure explosiveness when combining strength and speed, this duo is unmatched.
Okay, Marion Barber is very good, runs with power and authority, is a great receiver out of the backfield. But he doesn't break the big run, so we give him...Felix Jones. Who did not start in college. And has never played a down in the NFL.
This would be one think if it was Barber and Darren McFadden. But it's pure speculation right now that Felix Jones will ever be an NFL quality back. Well, whatever. You're stretching here, Jeremy Green, but you still have two more chances to,
Pittsburgh's Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall
Pittsburgh wasn't supposed to be on this list. But then the second-best rookie running back in the 2008 class fell into the Steelers' laps. Though Parker is a speed back who has shown he can carry the load, depth has been a concern for the Steelers. Plus, Parker is coming back from a season-ending injury, so adding Mendenhall made sense. He is a physical runner who should provide nice balance in the backfield to "Fast Willie" and a Pittsburgh offense that will try to re-establish its tough, blue-collar mentality this season.
Willie Parker DVOA (2007): -11.3%
Willie Parker DVOA (2006): 1.1%
Willie Parker DVOA (2005): 0.2%
Alright. In Willie Parker's BEST season, he was an average back. Last year, at age 27, he averaged 4.1 yards/carry. He was a probowler the last two seasons, though in 2007, Najeh Davenport was twice as valuable in half as many touches (20.4% DVOA). Willie Parker also broke his leg in December 2007.
Willie Parker is good enough to start somewhere in the NFL, but he's not a top running back in the league. Probably not even top 25.
Mendenhall has never played a down. He's a good prospect with a lot of hype, and that's the kind of player that Jeremy Green wants on his team. Of course he just tried that Felix Jones could improve the Running Back situation in Dallas now that that lazy bum Julius Jones is finally elsewhere.
Seattle's Julius Jones and T.J. Duckett
Unhappy with his backfield, Mike Holmgren decided to shake things up. In a rare move, the Seahawks dipped into the unrestricted free-agent running back market twice in the offseason in an effort to get one star running back via two bodies. A change of scenery will help Jones, who was never given a full opportunity to succeed in Dallas. Once he got the "soft" label, his days of being given the opportunity to carry the load went by the wayside. Duckett is a journeyman but is a proven backup with solid size and the power to run between the tackles.
Oh. My. Fucking. God.
Gentlemen, your fifth most feared RB tandem in the NFL today: some guy who got replaced by a rookie in Dallas, and TJ Duckett.
TJ Duckett -- one of the very worst first round running back picks of the last ten years. Literally did not carry the ball 20 times in 2005, his 4th and final season in Atlanta, despite being healthy the whole year. Got traded to Washington, and posted a DVOA of -20.8% in a (rightfully) small sample size. Better last year, still didn't qualify for the DVOA leaderboard.
Now (apparently) part of one of the five best duos in the NFL. Better than Bradshaw and Jacobs. Better than Turner/Norwood. Better than Tomlinson/Sproles. Better than Westbrook/Booker.
For the rest of the article, a good case could be made for each of the five "Destined Duds" to be more successful this year than TJ Duckett and Julius Jones, and especially so with Ronnie Brown who was so good last year before getting injured that his combined rushing and receiving DPAR in seven games ranked fifth for all RBs...over the entire fucking season.
And yes, he is coming off a torn ACL and Ricky Williams can no longer be counted on, but remember: Willie Parker broke his fucking leg.
Friday, February 8, 2008
Well I'm shocked the Giants won it all
and after you see this quote by the Architect if their run, you will be too
In case you missed it, he said:
"What difference does it make what we gave up?"
"WHAT DIFFERENCE DOES IT MAKE WHAT WE GAVE UP?"
"WHAT DIFFERENCE DOES IT MAKE WHAT WE GAVE UP?"
The article goes on to agree with Accorsi and attribute great foresight to him just because what is by all accounts a terrible move did not cause them to not win the Superbowl. Of course forgetting that Eli's not even mediocore regular season did rather little to get them there, and that within such a small sample size as ONE GAME, fluke plays tend to have more of an effect on outcomes (flukes such as a renowned special teamer jumping 3 feet off the ground and catching a football, in coverage, with his helmet.)
Just a reminder, this is a former GM. He made a career of being the man paid large sums of money to care about what they do and do not give up. You might say that it was his "job". As you might have noticed, he goes onto say "you can't overpay for a good player". Mike Ditka approves! Notice that I'm not blaming Ricky Williams for the Saints making the playoffs once in his three years, and going 3-13 in his first year, and Ditka getting fired. I'm just saying that trading your entire 53-man roster for somebody is bad. I don't care if he's the love child of John Elway and Barry Sanders, coached/trained by Dick Butkus and Joe Montana. Vincent "Buddy" Elway-Sanders couldn't play every position on the field could he? YOU HAVE A SALARY CAP AND A LIMITED SUPPLY OF GOOD PLAYERS. You have a budget constraint. You can not give up everything for one player.
More importantly, you might have noticed that Eli isn't that good. He's actually been kind of bad, if you just look at the numbers. His career QB rating is 73.4, which would be good for 26th this season, right behind--you guessed it--Eli Manning. His career completion percentage, 54.7 puts him squarely between Grossman and Cleo Lemon, at 31 for quarterbacks qualifying this year.
Now, I know this isn't the be-all end-all of statistical analyses, but surely if you could have say Philip Rivers, an assload of draft picks and his 86.6 career rating and 60.8%, you'd at least have to think about it. Obviously, Rivers has a better offense, and anything could happen in the future. Plus, he looks weird when he throws. HOWEVER, he is by all indicators available to us, a better quarterback, and a better quarterback that came with an absolute assload of draft picks mind you.
I mean for heaven's sake, one such draft pick ended up being Shawne Merriman. Granted evaluating the acquisition of a draft PICK ex post facto ignores that there is some uncertainty involved in the actual picking. However, this is Shawne Merriman. He was a high 1st round pick. He was the very same roid-addled giganteur that won Rookie of the Year. How's that for instant impact? An almost certainly better quarterback, a freakishly good defender, and two more draft picks for Eli Manning. If that's not over paying, then I don't know what is.
[Edited to fix author's complete ignorance of Ernie Accorsi.]
"What difference does it make what we gave up?" Accorsi continued. "You better be right about the QB, but if you are, you can't overpay for a great QB and we think he's going to be a great QB. What would you give up for Elway? What would you give for Montana or Unitas? Just like you can't overpay a great player. Can you overpay for Mays or DiMaggio? That's all fodder."
In case you missed it, he said:
"What difference does it make what we gave up?"
"WHAT DIFFERENCE DOES IT MAKE WHAT WE GAVE UP?"
"WHAT DIFFERENCE DOES IT MAKE WHAT WE GAVE UP?"
The article goes on to agree with Accorsi and attribute great foresight to him just because what is by all accounts a terrible move did not cause them to not win the Superbowl. Of course forgetting that Eli's not even mediocore regular season did rather little to get them there, and that within such a small sample size as ONE GAME, fluke plays tend to have more of an effect on outcomes (flukes such as a renowned special teamer jumping 3 feet off the ground and catching a football, in coverage, with his helmet.)
Just a reminder, this is a former GM. He made a career of being the man paid large sums of money to care about what they do and do not give up. You might say that it was his "job". As you might have noticed, he goes onto say "you can't overpay for a good player". Mike Ditka approves! Notice that I'm not blaming Ricky Williams for the Saints making the playoffs once in his three years, and going 3-13 in his first year, and Ditka getting fired. I'm just saying that trading your entire 53-man roster for somebody is bad. I don't care if he's the love child of John Elway and Barry Sanders, coached/trained by Dick Butkus and Joe Montana. Vincent "Buddy" Elway-Sanders couldn't play every position on the field could he? YOU HAVE A SALARY CAP AND A LIMITED SUPPLY OF GOOD PLAYERS. You have a budget constraint. You can not give up everything for one player.
More importantly, you might have noticed that Eli isn't that good. He's actually been kind of bad, if you just look at the numbers. His career QB rating is 73.4, which would be good for 26th this season, right behind--you guessed it--Eli Manning. His career completion percentage, 54.7 puts him squarely between Grossman and Cleo Lemon, at 31 for quarterbacks qualifying this year.
Now, I know this isn't the be-all end-all of statistical analyses, but surely if you could have say Philip Rivers, an assload of draft picks and his 86.6 career rating and 60.8%, you'd at least have to think about it. Obviously, Rivers has a better offense, and anything could happen in the future. Plus, he looks weird when he throws. HOWEVER, he is by all indicators available to us, a better quarterback, and a better quarterback that came with an absolute assload of draft picks mind you.
I mean for heaven's sake, one such draft pick ended up being Shawne Merriman. Granted evaluating the acquisition of a draft PICK ex post facto ignores that there is some uncertainty involved in the actual picking. However, this is Shawne Merriman. He was a high 1st round pick. He was the very same roid-addled giganteur that won Rookie of the Year. How's that for instant impact? An almost certainly better quarterback, a freakishly good defender, and two more draft picks for Eli Manning. If that's not over paying, then I don't know what is.
[Edited to fix author's complete ignorance of Ernie Accorsi.]
Thursday, September 13, 2007
Tuesday, March 20, 2007
Mike Nolan: PI=Death Penalty
49ers coach Mike Nolan apparently does not have a cousin on death row.
"You can maim someone, and it's 15 yards," he said. "You can end someone's career, and it's 15 yards. Pass interference -- it's not a reflection of the severity of the crime. It's like getting the death penalty for going 75 mph in a 55 zone."
You can make a great case for the rules regarding the enforcement of pass interference to be changed. I could make a better one designed to better structure the way it's called. And Nolan has a right to challenge the integrity of a rule.
But in most cases, pass interference occurs as a last ditch means of stopping a completed pass. It's never supposed to be called as an accidental foul. PI--by nature--is intentional. So by lowering the consequences for it, it will often become a statistically smart move to interfere with the receiver.
Pro Football is already a game where the better team is going to lose 38% of the time. Changing rules to benefit teams with worse pass defenses is counterproductive. Not surprisingly, the 49ers ranked 29th against the pass last year posting an 18.1% DVOA below the league average.
And the death penalty!! WTF?
"You can maim someone, and it's 15 yards," he said. "You can end someone's career, and it's 15 yards. Pass interference -- it's not a reflection of the severity of the crime. It's like getting the death penalty for going 75 mph in a 55 zone."
You can make a great case for the rules regarding the enforcement of pass interference to be changed. I could make a better one designed to better structure the way it's called. And Nolan has a right to challenge the integrity of a rule.
But in most cases, pass interference occurs as a last ditch means of stopping a completed pass. It's never supposed to be called as an accidental foul. PI--by nature--is intentional. So by lowering the consequences for it, it will often become a statistically smart move to interfere with the receiver.
Pro Football is already a game where the better team is going to lose 38% of the time. Changing rules to benefit teams with worse pass defenses is counterproductive. Not surprisingly, the 49ers ranked 29th against the pass last year posting an 18.1% DVOA below the league average.
And the death penalty!! WTF?
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