ESPN is on an odd streak of producing insightful content that isn't painful for me to read. Go figure. I think I actually miss the days when the front page articles made me cringe.
Luckily, the magic of ESPN's archives allow me to go back in time, and discover more sub par analysis, courtesy of Dennis Green's favorite son -- Jeremy -- who apparently thinks that the Cleveland Browns are the favorite to win the AFC North this year. Green pimps the job Browns' GM Phil Savage is doing in this article, apparently unaware that perhaps not all personnel moves have positive results.
QB Derek Anderson -- Anderson was a restricted free agent entering the offseason, and the Browns put a first- and third-round tender on him to possibly scare away potential suitors. There was some talk about listening to trade offers for Anderson, but his experience in Baltimore taught Savage that a constant quarterback merry-go-round is not good for an offense.
Derek Anderson was certainly a breath of fresh air in 2007. I won't argue this point. Going forward though, is there any reason to think that Derek Anderson will be a better pro than Brady Quinn.
Consider these facts about Anderson in 2007:
Anderson completed 56% of his passes.
His 19 interceptions ranked him one behind Eli Manning for tops in the NFL (something that his completion percentage would indicate is a very real trend).
Chase Stuart, at PFR, adjusted QB numbers for strength of schedule, and Anderson's totals came out below average -- ranking below both Chad Pennington and Jon Kitna.
KC Joyner's bad decision % totals had Anderson at second worst, ahead of only Jay Cutler with a 4.7% bad decision rate.
Now, consider that Anderson went to the pro bowl in 2007 with all these problems with his game. Is that really a recipe for improvement the next season? If anything, the pro bowl invite seems like it would falsely inflate Anderson's value in his own mind, which can be dangerous for the development of a young QB.
The process here tells Savage to sell high -- try to cash in on his value and grab a few picks. What Green fails to mention is that Savage had no serious offers for Anderson because people are skeptical. The Browns had a soft schedule, and they missed the playoffs in no small part because Anderson imploded down the stretch. 10 wins is nothing to spit on, but as we'll see later, a repeat of that performance remains a pipe dream in Jeremy Green's mind.
RB Jamal Lewis -- The team made it a priority to get a deal done for Lewis, another great move. Lewis is coming off his best season (1,304 yards, 11 touchdowns) since 2003, and his legs looked rejuvenated last season.
Jamal Lewis DVOA (Yards/Carry) 2002-2007:
02- -1.7% (4.3)
03- 3.4% (5.3)
04- 3.5% (4.3)
05- -25.2%(!) (3.4)
06- -9.9% (3.6)
07- 1.9% (4.4)
The numbers absolutely support Jeremy Green's claim that his legs looked rejuvenated last year. Of course, that rejuvenation is who Jamal Lewis is and always has been throughout his career: a league average running back when healthy who is capable of having insane games when he plays the Cleveland Browns defense. He's probably the very best practice back in the NFL.
He will also be 29 before opening day, and with the mileage on his tires, it's safe to assume we've seen his peak. The smart move would have been for the Browns to invest the money they spent on extending Lewis elsewhere, but again, Phil Savage may not be the genius that Green likens him to be.
DTs Shaun Rogers and Corey Williams -- Acquiring Rogers in a trade with the Detroit Lions was one of those risks I talked about earlier.
Williams came over in a trade with the Green Bay Packers and will add more size to a defense that was one of the worst in the league against the run last season.
These are the two moves that will for sure determine how we remember Cleveland's offseason. This is who the Browns dealt their top two picks in the 2008 draft for.
I'm skeptical on Rogers, but KC Joyner pretty much says concisely what I am really thinking here:
Overrated: Shaun Rogers, DT, Detroit -- He was named the NFC player of the week at one point during the 2007 season, but his 4.4 YPA allowed on point-of-attack runs was quite disappointing for a player who had been dominant in that area in the past. And that wasn't all: 30 of the 97 POA runs directed at Rogers gained at least 5 yards, and 11 went for 10-plus yards.
Keep in mind that Joyner wrote this about a month before Rogers was dealt to Clevland: for a third round pick and shutdown corner Leigh Bodden. Cleveland has (or, at least had, prior to Daven Holly's season ending knee injury) corner depth, and though Rogers' impact on the Browns is yet to be seen, it's hard to see a scenario where the Browns' improved their team in this deal.
Also: Getting fleeced by Matt Millen is grounds for dismissal in 40 states.
I think Williams is a good pickup for the Browns D. Keep in mind though, the price on him was a second round pick -- a price that no team was willing to pay the Browns for Derek Anderson. Certainly, Anderson could have been a Packer for the price of Williams, but the Packers certainly don't think Anderson is franchise QB material.
Yes, it's early, but I'll make two predictions: The Browns will win the AFC North, and Savage will be the GM of the year.
Based on his track record this offseason, I'll make a bold prediction also: Dennis Green gets another job in the NFL before Jeremy Green gets a single prediction correct.
Showing posts with label jeremy green. Show all posts
Showing posts with label jeremy green. Show all posts
Monday, June 16, 2008
Tuesday, June 3, 2008
Dynamic Running Duos
Jeremy Green, y'all:
One recent trend in the NFL is that teams are creating depth at running back and more and more teams are using a two-back system. Here's a look at [five] duos that will have success this season and [five] others that will struggle.
Five and five here. That's one third of the NFL. Fine. Green mentions Minnesota and Jacksonville at the top of his list. Both are totally deserving tandems. So far so good.
Dallas' Marion Barber and Felix Jones
As soon as the Cowboys selected Jones, I started envisioning how this backfield would shape up in 2008. The rest of the NFC East likely started having nightmares. Now that Julius Jones has left for Seattle, Barber is now the lead back. He is one of the most physical runners in the NFL and leaves a mark when he runs over a defender. Jones' quickness and speed make him the perfect complement. One of the toughest adjustments a defense has to make is when it goes from seeing a physical, between-the-tackles runner to a speed guy. In terms of pure explosiveness when combining strength and speed, this duo is unmatched.
Okay, Marion Barber is very good, runs with power and authority, is a great receiver out of the backfield. But he doesn't break the big run, so we give him...Felix Jones. Who did not start in college. And has never played a down in the NFL.
This would be one think if it was Barber and Darren McFadden. But it's pure speculation right now that Felix Jones will ever be an NFL quality back. Well, whatever. You're stretching here, Jeremy Green, but you still have two more chances to,
Pittsburgh's Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall
Pittsburgh wasn't supposed to be on this list. But then the second-best rookie running back in the 2008 class fell into the Steelers' laps. Though Parker is a speed back who has shown he can carry the load, depth has been a concern for the Steelers. Plus, Parker is coming back from a season-ending injury, so adding Mendenhall made sense. He is a physical runner who should provide nice balance in the backfield to "Fast Willie" and a Pittsburgh offense that will try to re-establish its tough, blue-collar mentality this season.
Willie Parker DVOA (2007): -11.3%
Willie Parker DVOA (2006): 1.1%
Willie Parker DVOA (2005): 0.2%
Alright. In Willie Parker's BEST season, he was an average back. Last year, at age 27, he averaged 4.1 yards/carry. He was a probowler the last two seasons, though in 2007, Najeh Davenport was twice as valuable in half as many touches (20.4% DVOA). Willie Parker also broke his leg in December 2007.
Willie Parker is good enough to start somewhere in the NFL, but he's not a top running back in the league. Probably not even top 25.
Mendenhall has never played a down. He's a good prospect with a lot of hype, and that's the kind of player that Jeremy Green wants on his team. Of course he just tried that Felix Jones could improve the Running Back situation in Dallas now that that lazy bum Julius Jones is finally elsewhere.
Seattle's Julius Jones and T.J. Duckett
Unhappy with his backfield, Mike Holmgren decided to shake things up. In a rare move, the Seahawks dipped into the unrestricted free-agent running back market twice in the offseason in an effort to get one star running back via two bodies. A change of scenery will help Jones, who was never given a full opportunity to succeed in Dallas. Once he got the "soft" label, his days of being given the opportunity to carry the load went by the wayside. Duckett is a journeyman but is a proven backup with solid size and the power to run between the tackles.
Oh. My. Fucking. God.
Gentlemen, your fifth most feared RB tandem in the NFL today: some guy who got replaced by a rookie in Dallas, and TJ Duckett.
TJ Duckett -- one of the very worst first round running back picks of the last ten years. Literally did not carry the ball 20 times in 2005, his 4th and final season in Atlanta, despite being healthy the whole year. Got traded to Washington, and posted a DVOA of -20.8% in a (rightfully) small sample size. Better last year, still didn't qualify for the DVOA leaderboard.
Now (apparently) part of one of the five best duos in the NFL. Better than Bradshaw and Jacobs. Better than Turner/Norwood. Better than Tomlinson/Sproles. Better than Westbrook/Booker.
For the rest of the article, a good case could be made for each of the five "Destined Duds" to be more successful this year than TJ Duckett and Julius Jones, and especially so with Ronnie Brown who was so good last year before getting injured that his combined rushing and receiving DPAR in seven games ranked fifth for all RBs...over the entire fucking season.
And yes, he is coming off a torn ACL and Ricky Williams can no longer be counted on, but remember: Willie Parker broke his fucking leg.
One recent trend in the NFL is that teams are creating depth at running back and more and more teams are using a two-back system. Here's a look at [five] duos that will have success this season and [five] others that will struggle.
Five and five here. That's one third of the NFL. Fine. Green mentions Minnesota and Jacksonville at the top of his list. Both are totally deserving tandems. So far so good.
Dallas' Marion Barber and Felix Jones
As soon as the Cowboys selected Jones, I started envisioning how this backfield would shape up in 2008. The rest of the NFC East likely started having nightmares. Now that Julius Jones has left for Seattle, Barber is now the lead back. He is one of the most physical runners in the NFL and leaves a mark when he runs over a defender. Jones' quickness and speed make him the perfect complement. One of the toughest adjustments a defense has to make is when it goes from seeing a physical, between-the-tackles runner to a speed guy. In terms of pure explosiveness when combining strength and speed, this duo is unmatched.
Okay, Marion Barber is very good, runs with power and authority, is a great receiver out of the backfield. But he doesn't break the big run, so we give him...Felix Jones. Who did not start in college. And has never played a down in the NFL.
This would be one think if it was Barber and Darren McFadden. But it's pure speculation right now that Felix Jones will ever be an NFL quality back. Well, whatever. You're stretching here, Jeremy Green, but you still have two more chances to,
Pittsburgh's Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall
Pittsburgh wasn't supposed to be on this list. But then the second-best rookie running back in the 2008 class fell into the Steelers' laps. Though Parker is a speed back who has shown he can carry the load, depth has been a concern for the Steelers. Plus, Parker is coming back from a season-ending injury, so adding Mendenhall made sense. He is a physical runner who should provide nice balance in the backfield to "Fast Willie" and a Pittsburgh offense that will try to re-establish its tough, blue-collar mentality this season.
Willie Parker DVOA (2007): -11.3%
Willie Parker DVOA (2006): 1.1%
Willie Parker DVOA (2005): 0.2%
Alright. In Willie Parker's BEST season, he was an average back. Last year, at age 27, he averaged 4.1 yards/carry. He was a probowler the last two seasons, though in 2007, Najeh Davenport was twice as valuable in half as many touches (20.4% DVOA). Willie Parker also broke his leg in December 2007.
Willie Parker is good enough to start somewhere in the NFL, but he's not a top running back in the league. Probably not even top 25.
Mendenhall has never played a down. He's a good prospect with a lot of hype, and that's the kind of player that Jeremy Green wants on his team. Of course he just tried that Felix Jones could improve the Running Back situation in Dallas now that that lazy bum Julius Jones is finally elsewhere.
Seattle's Julius Jones and T.J. Duckett
Unhappy with his backfield, Mike Holmgren decided to shake things up. In a rare move, the Seahawks dipped into the unrestricted free-agent running back market twice in the offseason in an effort to get one star running back via two bodies. A change of scenery will help Jones, who was never given a full opportunity to succeed in Dallas. Once he got the "soft" label, his days of being given the opportunity to carry the load went by the wayside. Duckett is a journeyman but is a proven backup with solid size and the power to run between the tackles.
Oh. My. Fucking. God.
Gentlemen, your fifth most feared RB tandem in the NFL today: some guy who got replaced by a rookie in Dallas, and TJ Duckett.
TJ Duckett -- one of the very worst first round running back picks of the last ten years. Literally did not carry the ball 20 times in 2005, his 4th and final season in Atlanta, despite being healthy the whole year. Got traded to Washington, and posted a DVOA of -20.8% in a (rightfully) small sample size. Better last year, still didn't qualify for the DVOA leaderboard.
Now (apparently) part of one of the five best duos in the NFL. Better than Bradshaw and Jacobs. Better than Turner/Norwood. Better than Tomlinson/Sproles. Better than Westbrook/Booker.
For the rest of the article, a good case could be made for each of the five "Destined Duds" to be more successful this year than TJ Duckett and Julius Jones, and especially so with Ronnie Brown who was so good last year before getting injured that his combined rushing and receiving DPAR in seven games ranked fifth for all RBs...over the entire fucking season.
And yes, he is coming off a torn ACL and Ricky Williams can no longer be counted on, but remember: Willie Parker broke his fucking leg.
Thursday, March 29, 2007
This article is titled: "Plummer, Harrington not dead yet"!
Which pisses me off because I spent all day on the phone setting up the funeral arrangements.
Jeremy Green, please enlighten us.
New Tampa Bay Buccaneers' quarterback Jeff Garcia probably would never admit this, but he is the epitome of a system quarterback. That is not to say he doesn't have talent, it is just that he has proven he needs the right system to succeed.
Garcia has quick feet in the pocket, is able to improvise on the move, gets the ball out quickly and is accurate on short-to-intermediate passes. Those are just a few of the traits that make him an ideal quarterback in the West Coast offense. He has racked up a 61-percent career completion rate, and you can't succeed in that system with a low completion percentage.
An ideal quarterback in the west coast offense? Do, you Jeremy Green know who is the league's most ideal QB for the west coast offense?
Give up? It's Peyton Manning. You know why? Because Peyton Manning is the league's best quarterback.
Additionally, you cite Garcia's 61-percent career completion %, but you just throw it out there inexplicably. Numbers are great tools, but most come attached to an argument, not thrown into the middle of a paragraph for the hell of it. Are you saying that his 61% completion percentage makes him a successful QB, or are you saying that Garcia can't succeed in a west coast offense with numbers that low? Neither answer makes much sense because 61%, while usually a solid career, is not significantly good or bad. It's pretty acceptable for a west coast QB.
Three years ago, when Garcia was released by the 49ers, he forgot how important the system was. Opting for the big pay day instead of the right fit, he spurned the Buccaneers for the Cleveland Browns.
That choice led to him playing in an offense that didn't suit him, and suffering through one of his worst seasons in the NFL. He lasted one season in Cleveland before moving on to Detroit, where in 2005 he had little talent around him. Then the light went back on. Last year he took a backup role in Philadelphia, which turned out to be the best move of the his career since leaving San Francisco.
One of the NFL's most notorious myths; Jeff Garcia was horrible in Cleveland in 2004. Garcia started 7 games that year before a season concluding injury, and went 3-4. Furthermore, there is a significant difference between his VOA and DVOA. The adjustment for defenses faced gives Garcia a big break, meaning that Garcia faced some damn tough D's in his 7 starts there. His otherwise hapless team went 1-8 without him against significantly weaker defenses. The fact that Garcia won 3 games in 7 tries with THAT team is a testament to how well he played.
Jeff Garcia broke his leg in training camp in 2005. He returned midway through the season and posted some really crappy numbers. 2005 is a very clear one year abberation in a very predictable career path for Jeff Garcia. Possible reasons for this abberation include a crappy attempt at a west coast offense by a Detroit team that foolishly spent 3 top ten selections on receivers (neglecting obvious team-wide talent problems at positions far more significant), and the fact that Jeff Garcia BROKE HIS FREAKIN LEG IN THE PRESEASON!
In Philadelphia, he was reunited with his former San Francisco offensive coordinator, Marty Mornhinweg, in the original West Coast system. When Donovan McNabb was lost to the season with an injury, Garcia was given the chance to shine. In the right system and with an offensive coordinator who trusted him, he posted a 6-2 record (including the postseason). During one stretch, Garcia led the Eagles to six straight wins.
Anybody who had followed Jeff Garcia's career should not be surprised that he "rebounded" from the Detroit Lion experience. Garcia's career path has statistically been on a predictable declining line since his probowl years in San Francisco. 2005 was a complete and otherwise inexplicable abberation from this line. When injury is involved, the player nearly always rebounds. The nature of quarterbacking does not allow a guy to just "lose it". The art of playing quarterback is not heavily based on physical skill. Guys will stop improving about their 10th year out of college, but good career QBs can keep playing at a respectable level well into their 40s if they really wanted to. It's like kickers in many ways. Sure Morten Andersen doesn't have the leg to hit 55 yarders anymore, but he can still kick extra points through the uprights, and 10 years from now, will still have that ability.
The system is not responsible for Garcia's "rebound" The west coast offense is very instrumental in improving conventional stats. This is because QBs that complete a higher percentage will throw more TDs and less INTs and get more yards per attempt. The West Coast offense and its offspring systems assist a QB in completing a high percentage of his passes. This makes ANY QB more successful. In many ways, its a superior offensive system to many traditional vertical offenses.
This, however, is NOT an issue of making Jeff Garcia feel comfortable (resisting...urge...to make...gay joke). Garcia would have bounced back in any damn system, including Oakland's vertical offense. His conventional stats would have looked worse in Oakland, but he would have posted similar DPAR to what he did this year. Then again, there's a reason that I only care about a select few conventional stats. Even these stats (completion % and yards/attempt) are heavily context related, so approach with caution.
That success led to Garcia hitting the market again this season and he wasn't going to make the same mistake again. Garcia visited the Oakland Raiders, who have added veteran offensive coordinator Greg Knapp. Even though Garcia had played under Knapp in San Francisco, the Raiders never will rid themselves of the vertical passing game.
The Raiders offered more money, but when Tampa came calling, it was an easy choice for Garcia. He made the choice he should have made three seasons ago. Now he is with a coach in Jon Gruden who runs a system he knows and trusts.
Even at 37, Garcia is still spry. He showed last season that in the right system, he still can get the job done.
Well, no. Garcia took Tampa's offer because Oakland wouldn't commit to passing on a QB in this draft. Both Tampa and Oakland are void of offensive talent. Tampa has the more QB friendly system, but I think Jeremy Green is confusing QB friendly with Jeff Garcia friendly. All quarterbacks benefit from a system that allows them to complete more passes.
Garcia wasn't the only aging backup QB who was successful last season. Kansas City's Damon Huard kept his team in the playoff hunt when Trent Green missed the first half of the season with a severe concussion. Charlie Batch played well when called upon in Pittsburgh. The common theme is that both were in systems they were comfortable with.
I think the common theme between Huard and Garcia is that they both are pretty good QBs. Undoubtably, Huard would have regressed towards the mean if he had stayed as the starter in KC. He played well enough though to earn the starting job in KC, and I doubt that this is entirely because of the system. That same system didn't help Trent Green overcome his concussion now, did it?
I'm really happy that Charlie Batch played well in two starts. This is not evidence for anything, Jeremy Green.
In a fairly weak free-agent QB market, who are some guys with a chance to revitalize their careers this season? Let's start with Jake Plummer. Yes, I know he has said he is retiring, but the bottom line is he does not want to play in Tampa Bay. He also feels jilted by the Broncos.
However, if he were traded to the Houston Texans, would that bring him back to the NFL? Plummer has not filed his paperwork as of yet, so if a deal can be swung, I believe he would be more then willing to don a Texans' uniform.
Fine, Kubiak is the coach of the Broncos. He runs another very QB friendly system. David Carr completed 69%. Plummer could be every bit as good as Carr. But if Houston had really wanted him, they would have gone out and got him. Not that he would have done anything to solve their QB issue. They'd just be adding 6 years to David Carr's career. 2005 cannot possibly justify an entire career of sort of passable play. His system will not make Jake Plummer a good QB, his system will make Plummer a very conservative QB to prevent him from throwing with his left hand.
But they have Matt Schaub to do that.
Plummer is still only 32 and had the best season of his career in 2005, when current Texans' head coach Gary Kubiak was his offensive coordinator in Denver. If Plummer ends up in Houston, he might have to sit behind David Carr, but you can bet Carr will be on a short leash. Plummer knows the system, likes the situation and believes in the head coach. If he has any chance to resurrect his career, Houston is the best place for that to happen.
I know this article is dated prior to the Schaub trade and Carr release, but why in the fuck would Jake Plummer want to go back up David Carr? Why in the fuck would the Texans want that? If they are going to go out and spend on a QB, wouldn't they want someone who is actually good? Plummer retired. He IS dead. Let go, Jeremy Green. Let go.
Another QB who has a chance to resurrect his career this season is Joey Harrington. The former Lion and Dolphin is on the open market again after only his fifth NFL season.
The fascinating part about this is that Joey Harrington has earned himself the title of "Worst QB in NFL History" from a study of total QB value by Chase Stuart of Pro Football Reference. Harrington isn't actually the worst QB ever to play a down, but per the blog entry, his combination of consistenly poor play and inexplicable longevity means that he has hurt his teams with poor play more than any other player in NFL history. Long live the King!
Now we can assume that Jeremy Green will try to barter for Harrington to get another chance to further establish this impressively bad legacy. Maybe we can get him in a real QB unfriendly system and see just how poorly he can play!
Harrington is still young (28) and the passion to play the game is still there. You could see it last season in Miami. He will never live up to the expectations Detroit had when it drafted him No. 3 overall in 2002, but he showed flashes last season in Miami. In a league littered with average starting quarterbacks, Harrington is good enough to be effective with talent around him.
Harrington needs to find the right backup role. Two spots stand out to me: Denver and Cincinnati. In Denver, he would be the backup to Jay Cutler and would be playing for a coach in Mike Shanahan who knows a thing or two about the position. In Cincinnati, he would be behind Carson Palmer, and would be on a team littered with offensive playmakers.
Without adjusting for defense, Joey Harrington posted an incredibly subpar -7.3 PAR in 2006. If you adjust for some ridiculously tough pass defense, Harrington comes out above replacement level, but you have to wonder if Jeremy Green is some type of robot that has a function that interprets Harrington's play while adjusting for defense in real time observation mode. Robo-Green II then must calculate Harrington's flash factor in real time and upon doing all the above reaches the conclusion that Joey Harrington's play in 2006 was indictive of "some" flash factor. Now Robo-Green II has the task of translating Harrington's flash factor to a projection of potential.
But due to the ultimate outcome, it appears that the Robo-Green II is actually a poor talent evaluator. I didn't see any flash from Harrington last year. Maybe he got confused by that one game in Miami that had all that lightning.
Or maybe Jeremy Green did none of this and just decided to up and defend Harrington with no evidence that he's got a future outside of an observation that "the passion to play the game is still there".
The Bengals need a backup QB with starting experience, after Anthony Wright hit the free-agent market this offseason. As disappointing as Harrington has been, he is a much better player than Wright.
Anthony Wright was, in 2005, the perfect replacement level QB (DPAR=0.0). Harrington is slightly above replacement for career. So Jeremy Green is sort of correct. But I'm not sure "much better player than (Anthony) Wright" is ever a good defense for a quarterback.
Being a backup QB in the NFL is not always about talent. It is about being in the right place at the right time. Plummer and Harrington are two players who never lived up to expectations, but in the right system and surrounded by the right supporting cast, they could emerge as this season's version of Garcia.
To "be" a backup QB is all about being in the right place at the right time. To be a good backup QB has nothing to do with system or expectations. It has to do with finding the best QB option at a reasonable price. If the starter gets hurt, do you really want to be the team that's stuck with Plummer or Harrington at QB? Really?
Didn't think so.
I don't think either of them will be this year's Jeff Garcia. Neither has ever done anything Garcia did in their careers, so expecting Garcia-like numbers would be sort of retarded. Like this article.
Jeremy Green, please enlighten us.
New Tampa Bay Buccaneers' quarterback Jeff Garcia probably would never admit this, but he is the epitome of a system quarterback. That is not to say he doesn't have talent, it is just that he has proven he needs the right system to succeed.
Garcia has quick feet in the pocket, is able to improvise on the move, gets the ball out quickly and is accurate on short-to-intermediate passes. Those are just a few of the traits that make him an ideal quarterback in the West Coast offense. He has racked up a 61-percent career completion rate, and you can't succeed in that system with a low completion percentage.
An ideal quarterback in the west coast offense? Do, you Jeremy Green know who is the league's most ideal QB for the west coast offense?
Give up? It's Peyton Manning. You know why? Because Peyton Manning is the league's best quarterback.
Additionally, you cite Garcia's 61-percent career completion %, but you just throw it out there inexplicably. Numbers are great tools, but most come attached to an argument, not thrown into the middle of a paragraph for the hell of it. Are you saying that his 61% completion percentage makes him a successful QB, or are you saying that Garcia can't succeed in a west coast offense with numbers that low? Neither answer makes much sense because 61%, while usually a solid career, is not significantly good or bad. It's pretty acceptable for a west coast QB.
Three years ago, when Garcia was released by the 49ers, he forgot how important the system was. Opting for the big pay day instead of the right fit, he spurned the Buccaneers for the Cleveland Browns.
That choice led to him playing in an offense that didn't suit him, and suffering through one of his worst seasons in the NFL. He lasted one season in Cleveland before moving on to Detroit, where in 2005 he had little talent around him. Then the light went back on. Last year he took a backup role in Philadelphia, which turned out to be the best move of the his career since leaving San Francisco.
One of the NFL's most notorious myths; Jeff Garcia was horrible in Cleveland in 2004. Garcia started 7 games that year before a season concluding injury, and went 3-4. Furthermore, there is a significant difference between his VOA and DVOA. The adjustment for defenses faced gives Garcia a big break, meaning that Garcia faced some damn tough D's in his 7 starts there. His otherwise hapless team went 1-8 without him against significantly weaker defenses. The fact that Garcia won 3 games in 7 tries with THAT team is a testament to how well he played.
Jeff Garcia broke his leg in training camp in 2005. He returned midway through the season and posted some really crappy numbers. 2005 is a very clear one year abberation in a very predictable career path for Jeff Garcia. Possible reasons for this abberation include a crappy attempt at a west coast offense by a Detroit team that foolishly spent 3 top ten selections on receivers (neglecting obvious team-wide talent problems at positions far more significant), and the fact that Jeff Garcia BROKE HIS FREAKIN LEG IN THE PRESEASON!
In Philadelphia, he was reunited with his former San Francisco offensive coordinator, Marty Mornhinweg, in the original West Coast system. When Donovan McNabb was lost to the season with an injury, Garcia was given the chance to shine. In the right system and with an offensive coordinator who trusted him, he posted a 6-2 record (including the postseason). During one stretch, Garcia led the Eagles to six straight wins.
Anybody who had followed Jeff Garcia's career should not be surprised that he "rebounded" from the Detroit Lion experience. Garcia's career path has statistically been on a predictable declining line since his probowl years in San Francisco. 2005 was a complete and otherwise inexplicable abberation from this line. When injury is involved, the player nearly always rebounds. The nature of quarterbacking does not allow a guy to just "lose it". The art of playing quarterback is not heavily based on physical skill. Guys will stop improving about their 10th year out of college, but good career QBs can keep playing at a respectable level well into their 40s if they really wanted to. It's like kickers in many ways. Sure Morten Andersen doesn't have the leg to hit 55 yarders anymore, but he can still kick extra points through the uprights, and 10 years from now, will still have that ability.
The system is not responsible for Garcia's "rebound" The west coast offense is very instrumental in improving conventional stats. This is because QBs that complete a higher percentage will throw more TDs and less INTs and get more yards per attempt. The West Coast offense and its offspring systems assist a QB in completing a high percentage of his passes. This makes ANY QB more successful. In many ways, its a superior offensive system to many traditional vertical offenses.
This, however, is NOT an issue of making Jeff Garcia feel comfortable (resisting...urge...to make...gay joke). Garcia would have bounced back in any damn system, including Oakland's vertical offense. His conventional stats would have looked worse in Oakland, but he would have posted similar DPAR to what he did this year. Then again, there's a reason that I only care about a select few conventional stats. Even these stats (completion % and yards/attempt) are heavily context related, so approach with caution.
That success led to Garcia hitting the market again this season and he wasn't going to make the same mistake again. Garcia visited the Oakland Raiders, who have added veteran offensive coordinator Greg Knapp. Even though Garcia had played under Knapp in San Francisco, the Raiders never will rid themselves of the vertical passing game.
The Raiders offered more money, but when Tampa came calling, it was an easy choice for Garcia. He made the choice he should have made three seasons ago. Now he is with a coach in Jon Gruden who runs a system he knows and trusts.
Even at 37, Garcia is still spry. He showed last season that in the right system, he still can get the job done.
Well, no. Garcia took Tampa's offer because Oakland wouldn't commit to passing on a QB in this draft. Both Tampa and Oakland are void of offensive talent. Tampa has the more QB friendly system, but I think Jeremy Green is confusing QB friendly with Jeff Garcia friendly. All quarterbacks benefit from a system that allows them to complete more passes.
Garcia wasn't the only aging backup QB who was successful last season. Kansas City's Damon Huard kept his team in the playoff hunt when Trent Green missed the first half of the season with a severe concussion. Charlie Batch played well when called upon in Pittsburgh. The common theme is that both were in systems they were comfortable with.
I think the common theme between Huard and Garcia is that they both are pretty good QBs. Undoubtably, Huard would have regressed towards the mean if he had stayed as the starter in KC. He played well enough though to earn the starting job in KC, and I doubt that this is entirely because of the system. That same system didn't help Trent Green overcome his concussion now, did it?
I'm really happy that Charlie Batch played well in two starts. This is not evidence for anything, Jeremy Green.
In a fairly weak free-agent QB market, who are some guys with a chance to revitalize their careers this season? Let's start with Jake Plummer. Yes, I know he has said he is retiring, but the bottom line is he does not want to play in Tampa Bay. He also feels jilted by the Broncos.
However, if he were traded to the Houston Texans, would that bring him back to the NFL? Plummer has not filed his paperwork as of yet, so if a deal can be swung, I believe he would be more then willing to don a Texans' uniform.
Fine, Kubiak is the coach of the Broncos. He runs another very QB friendly system. David Carr completed 69%. Plummer could be every bit as good as Carr. But if Houston had really wanted him, they would have gone out and got him. Not that he would have done anything to solve their QB issue. They'd just be adding 6 years to David Carr's career. 2005 cannot possibly justify an entire career of sort of passable play. His system will not make Jake Plummer a good QB, his system will make Plummer a very conservative QB to prevent him from throwing with his left hand.
But they have Matt Schaub to do that.
Plummer is still only 32 and had the best season of his career in 2005, when current Texans' head coach Gary Kubiak was his offensive coordinator in Denver. If Plummer ends up in Houston, he might have to sit behind David Carr, but you can bet Carr will be on a short leash. Plummer knows the system, likes the situation and believes in the head coach. If he has any chance to resurrect his career, Houston is the best place for that to happen.
I know this article is dated prior to the Schaub trade and Carr release, but why in the fuck would Jake Plummer want to go back up David Carr? Why in the fuck would the Texans want that? If they are going to go out and spend on a QB, wouldn't they want someone who is actually good? Plummer retired. He IS dead. Let go, Jeremy Green. Let go.
Another QB who has a chance to resurrect his career this season is Joey Harrington. The former Lion and Dolphin is on the open market again after only his fifth NFL season.
The fascinating part about this is that Joey Harrington has earned himself the title of "Worst QB in NFL History" from a study of total QB value by Chase Stuart of Pro Football Reference. Harrington isn't actually the worst QB ever to play a down, but per the blog entry, his combination of consistenly poor play and inexplicable longevity means that he has hurt his teams with poor play more than any other player in NFL history. Long live the King!
Now we can assume that Jeremy Green will try to barter for Harrington to get another chance to further establish this impressively bad legacy. Maybe we can get him in a real QB unfriendly system and see just how poorly he can play!
Harrington is still young (28) and the passion to play the game is still there. You could see it last season in Miami. He will never live up to the expectations Detroit had when it drafted him No. 3 overall in 2002, but he showed flashes last season in Miami. In a league littered with average starting quarterbacks, Harrington is good enough to be effective with talent around him.
Harrington needs to find the right backup role. Two spots stand out to me: Denver and Cincinnati. In Denver, he would be the backup to Jay Cutler and would be playing for a coach in Mike Shanahan who knows a thing or two about the position. In Cincinnati, he would be behind Carson Palmer, and would be on a team littered with offensive playmakers.
Without adjusting for defense, Joey Harrington posted an incredibly subpar -7.3 PAR in 2006. If you adjust for some ridiculously tough pass defense, Harrington comes out above replacement level, but you have to wonder if Jeremy Green is some type of robot that has a function that interprets Harrington's play while adjusting for defense in real time observation mode. Robo-Green II then must calculate Harrington's flash factor in real time and upon doing all the above reaches the conclusion that Joey Harrington's play in 2006 was indictive of "some" flash factor. Now Robo-Green II has the task of translating Harrington's flash factor to a projection of potential.
But due to the ultimate outcome, it appears that the Robo-Green II is actually a poor talent evaluator. I didn't see any flash from Harrington last year. Maybe he got confused by that one game in Miami that had all that lightning.
Or maybe Jeremy Green did none of this and just decided to up and defend Harrington with no evidence that he's got a future outside of an observation that "the passion to play the game is still there".
The Bengals need a backup QB with starting experience, after Anthony Wright hit the free-agent market this offseason. As disappointing as Harrington has been, he is a much better player than Wright.
Anthony Wright was, in 2005, the perfect replacement level QB (DPAR=0.0). Harrington is slightly above replacement for career. So Jeremy Green is sort of correct. But I'm not sure "much better player than (Anthony) Wright" is ever a good defense for a quarterback.
Being a backup QB in the NFL is not always about talent. It is about being in the right place at the right time. Plummer and Harrington are two players who never lived up to expectations, but in the right system and surrounded by the right supporting cast, they could emerge as this season's version of Garcia.
To "be" a backup QB is all about being in the right place at the right time. To be a good backup QB has nothing to do with system or expectations. It has to do with finding the best QB option at a reasonable price. If the starter gets hurt, do you really want to be the team that's stuck with Plummer or Harrington at QB? Really?
Didn't think so.
I don't think either of them will be this year's Jeff Garcia. Neither has ever done anything Garcia did in their careers, so expecting Garcia-like numbers would be sort of retarded. Like this article.
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