Tuesday, March 10, 2009

Fire Mark Schlereth

On NFL Live today, quoth Schlereth:

"Tony Romo is still a young quarterback. He's still learning how to play the position."

I realize that once you get to a certain age, everyone seems young. But next month, Tony Romo turns...29.

Romo is older than Rex Grossman. He's older than Kyle Boller. Older than JP Losman. And that's just a bunch of guys you could have basically for free.

Tony Romo is old enough to have had a "down year" this season.

He's a lot of things, but inexperienced and especially young are not any of those things.

Monday, March 2, 2009

Wojciechowski Rips Cutler for...commenting on Cutler

ESPN "Blogger" Gene Wojciechowski was this close to writing one of the worst journalistic pieces of all time, only to find out that he, like myself, is not a journalist at all.

Will someone please give Jay Cutler his pacifier, hand him his favorite blankie and put him back in his crib for his afternoon nap? Because if he cries anymore about a trade that didn't happen, we'll have to check his Pampers.

Quick update: Denver was interested in Matt Cassel, and due only to extremely unfortunate circumstances, their offer for him ended up falling through, so they are stuck with 25 year old pro bowl QB Jay Cutler. Poor souls.

Cutler, for some godforsaken reason, doesn't like that his name has come up in trade talks. What a goddamn fucking child, right?

But the mere thought of a possible trade upset Cutler so much that he went into full waaaa-waaaa-waaaa mode, wailing like an infant. Why are they being so mean to me? That sort of thing.

"I'm upset," he told The Denver Post. "I mean, I'm really shocked at this point."


Apparently, Cutler's agent (Bus Cook) is also a whiny child:

James "Bus" Cook told The Associated Press, "Nobody's going to call the [New York] Giants and ask for Eli [Manning]. Nobody's calling the [Indianapolis] Colts asking about Peyton [Manning]. [Tom] Brady? Come on. So, why call Denver and ask about Jay? And if they do call, why not say, 'That's not for discussion. What else do you want?'"

Uh, these are the Denver Broncos. Obviously, since they had a strong defensive showing last year (i.e. better than the Lions), the only way they can possibly compete in the ferocious AFC West is by tinkering with their QB situation. Or by winning one of their last three games, and/or beating the Raiders at home.

Either or really.

Why call Denver and ask about Cutler? Because the Broncos haven't reached the playoffs since the 2005 season.


Neither have the Bills, Texans, Bengals, Browns, Raiders, Lions, Rams, or 49ers (1/4 of the league). In fact, none of those franchises have sniffed the success that Cutler and the Broncos have had in the last three years.

Because Cutler's record as a starter is 17-20.


Loser! Cut him!

Because new Broncos head coach Josh McDaniels just happened to coach Cassel last season.


He also coached Jabar Gaffney. Looks like Brandon Marshall is in trouble. Wait, no, I didn't mean...

And Cassel's team finished 11-5, including a 41-7 victory against Cutler's Broncos in October.


Yeah, even Jake Plummer beat the Patriots! Jake Plummer is not a loser, right?

Nobody is calling the Giants and the Colts about the Manning brothers because the Manning brothers actually reach the postseason and have won Super Bowls. And here's guessing somebody called the Patriots asking whether Brady might be available.

Ave. Manning Brothers playoff apperences, first three seasons: 1.5
Total Manning Brothers playoff wins, first three seasons: 0
Total Manning Brothers playoff wins, non-Super Bowl seasons: 3

Total Manning Brothers playoff wins, non-Super Bowl seasons, not over (non-loser) Jake Plummer and the Denver Broncos: 1

But Shanahan is Broncos history. It happens. Last week it happened to 11-time Pro Bowl linebacker Derrick Brooks of the Bucs. He was cut after 14 years.

Brooks didn't pout like Cutler. And his agent didn't issue any angry criticisms of the Bucs' decision. Instead, Brooks articulated the essential truth of the NFL: It's business, not personal.


Derrick Brooks: 36 year old linebacker
Jay Cutler: 25 year old Quarterback

Comparability Factor: Asinine

So what if the Broncos considered proposals from the Bucs? Who cares whether they listened to an offer from the Detroit Lions? When you haven't reached the playoffs since '05, when you gag away a three-game division lead with three games left, you listen to everybody about anybody.

Come to think about it, what's so bad about the Bucs?
New coach -- Raheem Morris. New tight end -- Kellen Winslow. Newly re-upped wide receivers -- Antonio Bryant (franchise-tagged) and Michael Clayton. And did we mention that Broncos receiver Brandon Marshall was arrested again?


Nothing's bad about the Bucs. The Bucs didn't gag away a playoff spot by losing their final three games including a loss to the Raiders at home!

Oh wait, they most definitely did.

Looks like Brandon Marshall IS in trouble, again.

"If they were in fact trying to trade Jay Cutler, then I think that's a situation that's going to cause a very serious problem for the organization," Cook huffed and puffed.

Why? Because Cutler's precious feelings were hurt? Please.


Well, I'd think it'd have something to do with the obscene amount of points this team gives up and the fact that they'd no longer have an offense that could win 8 games independent of this.

But, yeah, Cutler's feelings are the big story here.

The nontrade causes serious problems only if Cutler wants it that way. To whine about the Broncos' kicking the tires on a trade accomplishes nothing. Especially from a guy with zero playoff appearances and a grand total of 37 NFL games.

Cutler has accomplished nothing in this league. He has pretty passing numbers, but so what? It's time for him to do a Brooks and grow up. It's time for him to spit out the pacifier.


37 games, whoa! That's like when he started 35 games at Vanderbilt and didn't even lead them to a measly bowl game! C'mon, that's a given once every 40 years!

Baby.

Tuesday, February 24, 2009

Tuesday, January 13, 2009

Donovan McNabb, Hall-of Famer?

Mike Greenberg, on ESPN Radios Mike and Mike in the Morning, is trying to argue that Donovan McNabb is a Hall-of-Famer.

His basis for doing this is that:

1) Donovan McNabb will have better numbers than Troy Aikman when he retires.
2) Donovan McNabb will have better numbers than Steve Young when he retires.
3) Both Troy Aikman and Steve Young are Hall-of-Famers.

He also says that Brett Favre, Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady are the sure-fire Hall-of-Famers from this era. Does McNabb belong in the same category with these guys?

There is no doubt that players in the current era will have the strongest passing statistics of players in any era ever. So the direct comparison to Young/Aikman is already imperfect.

I'll get to Aikman/McNabb in a minute. Here's Young vs. McNabb in career rate totals.

Completion Percentage
Steve Young 64.3
Donovan McNabb 58.9

Yards per Attempt
Steve Young 8.0
Donovan McNabb 6.8

TD Rate
Steve Young 5.6%
Donovan McNabb 4.5%

Sack Rate
Steve Young 7.94%
Donovan McNabb 6.96%

INT Rate
Steve Young 2.6%
Donovman McNabb 2.1%

Passer Rating
Steve Young 96.8
Donovan McNabb 85.9

I included stats where McNabb was better to show how close it was in comparison to Young, and without coming up with a complicated era regression multiplier to normalize the numbers. On all stats that don't pertain directly to negative plays, McNabb is clearly inferior to Young, and it really isn't even all that close. I don't have any idea how Greenberg is claiming that McNabb has better numbers than Young. Even ignoring the elephant in the room -- the fact that McNabb played in a big passing era on a big passing team -- he's still not even remotely comparable to Steve Young on merit.

But since "compares well to Steve Young" is not necessarily a hall of fame criteria, let's look at Greenberg's other comparison: Troy Aikman.

McNabb actually compares much better to Aikman.

Completion Percentage
Troy Aikman 61.5
Donovan McNabb 58.9

Yards per Attempt
Troy Aikman 7.0
Donovan McNabb 6.8

TD Rate
Troy Aikman 3.5%
Donovan McNabb 4.5%

Sack Rate
Troy Aikman 5.21%*
Donovan McNabb 6.96%

*Well above average for the time, but again, Aikman's protection was particularly outstanding, perhaps the best in history. McNabb's had very good protection by current standards, but nothing like Aikman.

INT Rate
Troy Aikman 3.0%
Donovman McNabb 2.1%

Passer Rating
Troy Aikman 81.6
Donovan McNabb 85.9

Aikman, statistically, is a much better McNabb comparable. Although era-adjusted Aikman would put McNabb to shame, Aikman's best years are concentrated in the six best years in the history of the Cowboys franchise: 1991-1996. In those seasons, he never posted a completion percentage below 63.7. Outside of those seasons, he never got above 59.5. That's unheard of, and probably had everything to do with the talent around him. Aikman's 61.5% career figure is one he not ever came within two points in any single season. Astounding.

But here's the point: A random player with Troy Aikman's numbers is NOT a hall-of-famer. That's the big point here. Troy Aikman is in Canton because and only because he won three Super Bowls, not because he was a particularly great passer. Donovan McNabb is also not a particularly great passer, and happens to have no Super Bowls. If he can win his next two games, he will have a single Super Bowl. And he still won't have anywhere near Aikman's credentials for hall-of-fame selection.

Although, if you want to use the innovator angle on McNabb, he is widely credited with bringing the bounce pass to football. That's got to be worth something, right?

Look, Donovan McNabb is a good player. But if he goes in the Hall-of-Fame for any reason but sympathy, then what do you tell Jeff Garcia?

Or Mark Brunell?

Or Rich Gannon?

Or Chad Pennington?

Or Steve McNair?

Or Trent Green

Or Marc Bulger

Or Matt Hasselbeck?

Or, eventually, (in no specific order) Jay Cutler, Carson Palmer, Phillip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Brady Quinn, Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, or Joe Flacco?

Most, if not all, of those guys will never make the hall of fame. But if Donovan McNabb deserves it, don't all those guys deserve at least the same honor, if not a greater one?

Donovan McNabb and Hall-of-Fame, probably the worst thing said this entire football season.

Friday, December 12, 2008

One more word, pre-Heisman

ESPN's Chris Fowler, making the argument for Florida Quarterback/H-back Tim Tebow's Heisman credentials:

"Well, he's not going to win the stats argument...his stats are down from last year"

Tim Tebow, Passer Effiency 2007: 172.5
Tim Tebow, Passer Effiency 2008: 176.8

Tim Tebow, Interception % 2008: 0.75 (!)
Sam Bradford, Interception % 2008: 1.4
Colt McCoy, Interception % 2008: 1.9

Tim Tebow, Interception % 2007: 1.7

Actually, I'd say the stats argument is a pretty good one for Tebow.

Editors Note: If I had a vote for Heisman, I would take McCoy. His completion percentage is downright insane, and he did it with the least amount of offensive firepower of the three. This post is just to show that Tebow's got a good argument for his candidacy through stats, probably better than last year. It's just that, it's college football, so why would anyone look past TD totals when they refer to "stats".

Hat tip, Dr. Saturday

Thursday, December 11, 2008

Tim Tebow. Heisman Winner. H-Back?

Mel Kiper Jr. on Sports Center today (12/11, bottom half of 2 o'clock EST hour) just suggested taking Tebow in the first two rounds, and then converting him to an H-Back. I don't often agree with Todd McShay, but I have to think that he was on to something when he explained that you probably don't draft an H-Back in the first round, especially when "YOU DON'T EVEN KNOW IF HE CAN CATCH".

Kiper countered that no one knew Antawn Randle El could catch "until the Super Bowl". Redskins fans disagree: they still don't think he can catch.

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Right now...

Right this very minute, ESPN2's First Take is interviewing a William Penn impersonator...about a curse...based on the fact that there are now buildings in Philadelphia that reach higher than his likeness perched atop City Hall. He was asked how this will affect their chances of winning the World Series and what he thought of the city putting jerseys on the statue in the past.

Let that fester for a moment.

William Penn. Impersonator. Being interviewed. On ESPN. About a "curse".

It really makes those mohawks and "9=8" shirts seem sensible and classy doesn't it.