Donovan McNabb, Hall-of Famer?

Mike Greenberg, on ESPN Radios Mike and Mike in the Morning, is trying to argue that Donovan McNabb is a Hall-of-Famer.

His basis for doing this is that:

1) Donovan McNabb will have better numbers than Troy Aikman when he retires.
2) Donovan McNabb will have better numbers than Steve Young when he retires.
3) Both Troy Aikman and Steve Young are Hall-of-Famers.

He also says that Brett Favre, Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady are the sure-fire Hall-of-Famers from this era. Does McNabb belong in the same category with these guys?

There is no doubt that players in the current era will have the strongest passing statistics of players in any era ever. So the direct comparison to Young/Aikman is already imperfect.

I'll get to Aikman/McNabb in a minute. Here's Young vs. McNabb in career rate totals.

Completion Percentage
Steve Young 64.3
Donovan McNabb 58.9

Yards per Attempt
Steve Young 8.0
Donovan McNabb 6.8

TD Rate
Steve Young 5.6%
Donovan McNabb 4.5%

Sack Rate
Steve Young 7.94%
Donovan McNabb 6.96%

INT Rate
Steve Young 2.6%
Donovman McNabb 2.1%

Passer Rating
Steve Young 96.8
Donovan McNabb 85.9

I included stats where McNabb was better to show how close it was in comparison to Young, and without coming up with a complicated era regression multiplier to normalize the numbers. On all stats that don't pertain directly to negative plays, McNabb is clearly inferior to Young, and it really isn't even all that close. I don't have any idea how Greenberg is claiming that McNabb has better numbers than Young. Even ignoring the elephant in the room -- the fact that McNabb played in a big passing era on a big passing team -- he's still not even remotely comparable to Steve Young on merit.

But since "compares well to Steve Young" is not necessarily a hall of fame criteria, let's look at Greenberg's other comparison: Troy Aikman.

McNabb actually compares much better to Aikman.

Completion Percentage
Troy Aikman 61.5
Donovan McNabb 58.9

Yards per Attempt
Troy Aikman 7.0
Donovan McNabb 6.8

TD Rate
Troy Aikman 3.5%
Donovan McNabb 4.5%

Sack Rate
Troy Aikman 5.21%*
Donovan McNabb 6.96%

*Well above average for the time, but again, Aikman's protection was particularly outstanding, perhaps the best in history. McNabb's had very good protection by current standards, but nothing like Aikman.

INT Rate
Troy Aikman 3.0%
Donovman McNabb 2.1%

Passer Rating
Troy Aikman 81.6
Donovan McNabb 85.9

Aikman, statistically, is a much better McNabb comparable. Although era-adjusted Aikman would put McNabb to shame, Aikman's best years are concentrated in the six best years in the history of the Cowboys franchise: 1991-1996. In those seasons, he never posted a completion percentage below 63.7. Outside of those seasons, he never got above 59.5. That's unheard of, and probably had everything to do with the talent around him. Aikman's 61.5% career figure is one he not ever came within two points in any single season. Astounding.

But here's the point: A random player with Troy Aikman's numbers is NOT a hall-of-famer. That's the big point here. Troy Aikman is in Canton because and only because he won three Super Bowls, not because he was a particularly great passer. Donovan McNabb is also not a particularly great passer, and happens to have no Super Bowls. If he can win his next two games, he will have a single Super Bowl. And he still won't have anywhere near Aikman's credentials for hall-of-fame selection.

Although, if you want to use the innovator angle on McNabb, he is widely credited with bringing the bounce pass to football. That's got to be worth something, right?

Look, Donovan McNabb is a good player. But if he goes in the Hall-of-Fame for any reason but sympathy, then what do you tell Jeff Garcia?

Or Mark Brunell?

Or Rich Gannon?

Or Chad Pennington?

Or Steve McNair?

Or Trent Green

Or Marc Bulger

Or Matt Hasselbeck?

Or, eventually, (in no specific order) Jay Cutler, Carson Palmer, Phillip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Brady Quinn, Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, or Joe Flacco?

Most, if not all, of those guys will never make the hall of fame. But if Donovan McNabb deserves it, don't all those guys deserve at least the same honor, if not a greater one?

Donovan McNabb and Hall-of-Fame, probably the worst thing said this entire football season.

Happy St. Patties Day!

Here at Turn Off ESPN!, we don't take a lot of time to compliment half decently written articles about sports. Naturally, we spend a lot of time breaking down work from resident CBS moron Pete Prisco. In a new (and likely only) attempt at defending a sportswriter in this space, I'd like to turn your attention to Prisco's latest article, and some good points he makes in it.

Put simply, and oddly enough, correctly:

" It's so bad that Quinn Gray, the man who was third team behind Leftwich in Jacksonville, is visiting teams, while Leftwich just hopes for a shot.

How can that be? There's a reason Gray was listed third on that Jaguars depth chart. Gray simply isn't as good as Leftwich. "

Leftwich played an above average season in 2004, posting a 2.3% DVOA and 30+ DPAR. In 2005, he posted a 19.3% DVOA and 43.5 DPAR. He was below average in 2006, and missed the final ten games of the season prior to the playoff game.

Here's the point: Everything we know about Byron Leftwich tells us that he is a very talented, and historically productive QB. He's 28 years old, and right in the prime of his career. He's done enough to justify his first round draft status. He's probably NOT a better QB than the man who replaced him, David Garrard. Leftwich, however, should be starting somewhere in this league. If you are the Raiders, Vikings, Lions, Ravens, or Dolphins, why wouldn't you pay Byron Leftwich to play QB for you?

With all the talk about African-American QB's not getting a fair shake in this league, why is Leftwich not getting a chance? Why do Quinn Gray and Cleo Lemon get to bounce from team to team following in the steps of Jeff Blake and Tony Banks, and Byron Leftwich gets no job offers, despite being one of the 32 best QBs in the world and a harbringer of positive PR for a bunch of team's that badly need it.

I just don't get it.

Even Pete Prisco can be right sometimes

Keeping with the April 1 theme, check out this article.

Hey, we aren't afraid to give credit where it is due. It's not like theres a lot of it to give.

Some of the comments are hilarious. Gotta love the sportsline posters.

From the article:

Oakland Raiders coach Lane Kiffin made a good point this week. He said Russell's big arm is great and all, but also asked how many times quarterbacks throw the ball 70 yards in a game? Answering his own question, he said twice.


Chances the Raiders make Brady Quinn the first pick: 51%

Chances the Raiders make JaMarcus Russell the first pick: 48%

Chances the Raiders forget when draft day is: Scary