Jeremy Green, y'all:
One recent trend in the NFL is that teams are creating depth at running back and more and more teams are using a two-back system. Here's a look at [five] duos that will have success this season and [five] others that will struggle.
Five and five here. That's one third of the NFL. Fine. Green mentions Minnesota and Jacksonville at the top of his list. Both are totally deserving tandems. So far so good.
Dallas' Marion Barber and Felix Jones
As soon as the Cowboys selected Jones, I started envisioning how this backfield would shape up in 2008. The rest of the NFC East likely started having nightmares. Now that Julius Jones has left for Seattle, Barber is now the lead back. He is one of the most physical runners in the NFL and leaves a mark when he runs over a defender. Jones' quickness and speed make him the perfect complement. One of the toughest adjustments a defense has to make is when it goes from seeing a physical, between-the-tackles runner to a speed guy. In terms of pure explosiveness when combining strength and speed, this duo is unmatched.
Okay, Marion Barber is very good, runs with power and authority, is a great receiver out of the backfield. But he doesn't break the big run, so we give him...Felix Jones. Who did not start in college. And has never played a down in the NFL.
This would be one think if it was Barber and Darren McFadden. But it's pure speculation right now that Felix Jones will ever be an NFL quality back. Well, whatever. You're stretching here, Jeremy Green, but you still have two more chances to,
Pittsburgh's Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall
Pittsburgh wasn't supposed to be on this list. But then the second-best rookie running back in the 2008 class fell into the Steelers' laps. Though Parker is a speed back who has shown he can carry the load, depth has been a concern for the Steelers. Plus, Parker is coming back from a season-ending injury, so adding Mendenhall made sense. He is a physical runner who should provide nice balance in the backfield to "Fast Willie" and a Pittsburgh offense that will try to re-establish its tough, blue-collar mentality this season.
Willie Parker DVOA (2007): -11.3%
Willie Parker DVOA (2006): 1.1%
Willie Parker DVOA (2005): 0.2%
Alright. In Willie Parker's BEST season, he was an average back. Last year, at age 27, he averaged 4.1 yards/carry. He was a probowler the last two seasons, though in 2007, Najeh Davenport was twice as valuable in half as many touches (20.4% DVOA). Willie Parker also broke his leg in December 2007.
Willie Parker is good enough to start somewhere in the NFL, but he's not a top running back in the league. Probably not even top 25.
Mendenhall has never played a down. He's a good prospect with a lot of hype, and that's the kind of player that Jeremy Green wants on his team. Of course he just tried that Felix Jones could improve the Running Back situation in Dallas now that that lazy bum Julius Jones is finally elsewhere.
Seattle's Julius Jones and T.J. Duckett
Unhappy with his backfield, Mike Holmgren decided to shake things up. In a rare move, the Seahawks dipped into the unrestricted free-agent running back market twice in the offseason in an effort to get one star running back via two bodies. A change of scenery will help Jones, who was never given a full opportunity to succeed in Dallas. Once he got the "soft" label, his days of being given the opportunity to carry the load went by the wayside. Duckett is a journeyman but is a proven backup with solid size and the power to run between the tackles.
Oh. My. Fucking. God.
Gentlemen, your fifth most feared RB tandem in the NFL today: some guy who got replaced by a rookie in Dallas, and TJ Duckett.
TJ Duckett -- one of the very worst first round running back picks of the last ten years. Literally did not carry the ball 20 times in 2005, his 4th and final season in Atlanta, despite being healthy the whole year. Got traded to Washington, and posted a DVOA of -20.8% in a (rightfully) small sample size. Better last year, still didn't qualify for the DVOA leaderboard.
Now (apparently) part of one of the five best duos in the NFL. Better than Bradshaw and Jacobs. Better than Turner/Norwood. Better than Tomlinson/Sproles. Better than Westbrook/Booker.
For the rest of the article, a good case could be made for each of the five "Destined Duds" to be more successful this year than TJ Duckett and Julius Jones, and especially so with Ronnie Brown who was so good last year before getting injured that his combined rushing and receiving DPAR in seven games ranked fifth for all RBs...over the entire fucking season.
And yes, he is coming off a torn ACL and Ricky Williams can no longer be counted on, but remember: Willie Parker broke his fucking leg.
Showing posts with label scouts inc. Show all posts
Showing posts with label scouts inc. Show all posts
Tuesday, June 3, 2008
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
I read an article today. It was about Quarterbacks.
And it was written by Scouts Inc!
The title is: In updated QB rankings, Eli Manning rises, Quinn falls
Here are some things I read in the article:
"Brady Quinn's ranking plummeted from No. 37 to No. 58 because he barely saw the field."
"About the only thing we agreed on was that Tom Brady was No. 1 and Peyton Manning was No. 2."
""The top 10 was very difficult after we got through the top five."
"Despite losing several key players to injury, Manning still completed 65.4 percent of his passes and threw 31 TDs."
"There is no longer a debate over who the best QB in the NFL is -- Brady has moved ahead of Manning."
"Favre made every player on the offense better."
"[Romo] is mentally tough"
Roethlisberger has responded with improved leadership.
"[Hasselbeck] is a rhythm passer who can be a little streaky."
"Brees is not the type of player who can carry a team without solid weapons around him."
"When healthy, McNabb has shown he can still be an elite starting QB."
"The last time he played a 16-game season was 2003."
"[Eli] lacks that emotional drive that gets you excited."
This one is the best:
"[Vince Young] didn't have much success in 2007 because former offensive coordinator Norm Chow's game plans didn't always take advantage of Young's strengths as much as they did in 2006."
And the best of the rest:
"Physically, none of his traits stand out, but he is not a major liability in any one area, either."
Guess who that guy is. Give up? Whatever, it's not important.
"The number of interceptions remain worrisome."
Same Guy.
"Starting quarterbacks are hard to find."
"[Clemens] has a lot of upside"
The Russell saga:
"[Russell] was the first overall choice in the 2007 draft for a reason."
"He didn't play all that much football at LSU compared to other top prospects."
"But wow, is he intriguing."
Why we love Steve McNair:
"On guts alone, he threw for over 1,000 yards this season."
Just a few more:
"[Sorgi] has a fragile-looking frame"
"He was pulled from a game by coach Belichick after throwing an interception, so it's obvious Cassel is not ready to be a starter for any NFL team."
"While [Quinn] showed flashes of potential in the preseason, whether that translates well in the regular season is unknown."
Just remember their position on this guy:
"[Russell] was the first overall choice in the 2007 draft for a reason."
"Wow, is [Russell} intriguing."
The title is: In updated QB rankings, Eli Manning rises, Quinn falls
Here are some things I read in the article:
"Brady Quinn's ranking plummeted from No. 37 to No. 58 because he barely saw the field."
"About the only thing we agreed on was that Tom Brady was No. 1 and Peyton Manning was No. 2."
""The top 10 was very difficult after we got through the top five."
"Despite losing several key players to injury, Manning still completed 65.4 percent of his passes and threw 31 TDs."
"There is no longer a debate over who the best QB in the NFL is -- Brady has moved ahead of Manning."
"Favre made every player on the offense better."
"[Romo] is mentally tough"
Roethlisberger has responded with improved leadership.
"[Hasselbeck] is a rhythm passer who can be a little streaky."
"Brees is not the type of player who can carry a team without solid weapons around him."
"When healthy, McNabb has shown he can still be an elite starting QB."
"The last time he played a 16-game season was 2003."
"[Eli] lacks that emotional drive that gets you excited."
This one is the best:
"[Vince Young] didn't have much success in 2007 because former offensive coordinator Norm Chow's game plans didn't always take advantage of Young's strengths as much as they did in 2006."
And the best of the rest:
"Physically, none of his traits stand out, but he is not a major liability in any one area, either."
Guess who that guy is. Give up? Whatever, it's not important.
"The number of interceptions remain worrisome."
Same Guy.
"Starting quarterbacks are hard to find."
"[Clemens] has a lot of upside"
The Russell saga:
"[Russell] was the first overall choice in the 2007 draft for a reason."
"He didn't play all that much football at LSU compared to other top prospects."
"But wow, is he intriguing."
Why we love Steve McNair:
"On guts alone, he threw for over 1,000 yards this season."
Just a few more:
"[Sorgi] has a fragile-looking frame"
"He was pulled from a game by coach Belichick after throwing an interception, so it's obvious Cassel is not ready to be a starter for any NFL team."
"While [Quinn] showed flashes of potential in the preseason, whether that translates well in the regular season is unknown."
Just remember their position on this guy:
"[Russell] was the first overall choice in the 2007 draft for a reason."
"Wow, is [Russell} intriguing."
Wednesday, January 2, 2008
Wait! There's More!
Scouts Inc. watches games, breaks down film and studies football from all angles for ESPN.com.-Article Footnote
They watch the games! Holy crap. I guess if you watch the games, you are instantly qualified to begin a business selling expert information to the public at a fee. I'm gonna have to get Robocats on the horn, there's a living to be had here.
Anyway, they ranked all the playoff teams in the most intelligent manner one could think of: they gave them a number ranking (quantity 1:12), broke it down by position, and got really tricky when they summoned the gods of addition to come up with an end result. That's right: Scouts Inc. has a team evaluation system that involves not one, but each and every fault of general analysis:
-no scale
-no average or control group
-assumption of equidistant skill level seperation...
-between all tweleve teams...
-at every postion...
-assumption of equivlent position value
-assumption that coach value is perfectly equal to any other position...
-like Quarterback for example
and of course the clincher:
-totally subjective rankings to ensure that no two intelligent people could ever agree on the same rankings.
What I am about to show you here is only their defensive rankings of the twelve playoff teams. Rest assured that the rest of their crap is more of the same.
Anyway, here are the Football Outsiders numbers for all of the defensive data from 2007. FO has about 1/4 the resources of Scouts Inc, works half as hard, and knows roughly thirty eight times more about football.
You don't have to be a big fan of DVOA to use it for a loose standard of actual real defensive power rankings. Here are the 12 playoff teams ranked in order of defensive effeciency (in bold):
1. Tennessee -13.5%
2. Pittsburgh -12.5%
3. Indianapolis -10.8%
4. Tampa Bay -10.2%
5. San Diego -9.8%
6. Washington -7.2%
7. New England -6.1%
8. Dallas -5.8%
9. Seattle -5.4%
10. Jacksonville -3.3%
11. New York Giants -2.9%
12. Green Bay Packers -1.3%
And the Scouts Inc rankings:
1. Dallas Cowboys 12
1. Green Bay Packers 12
3. San Diego Chargers 13
4. New England Patriots 14
5. Indianapolis Colts 18
5. Seattle Seahawks 18
7. Pittsburgh Steelers 20
8. Tennessee Titans 21
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24
10. New York Giants 25
11. Jacksonville Jaguars 27
12. Washington Redskins 30
That's actually correct, Football Outsiders system which uses every play of the season as a data point ranks Green Bay's defense as the least effective. Scouts Inc, which uses some anonymous dudes' "professional" opinion, finds them to be the best.
Great system.
They watch the games! Holy crap. I guess if you watch the games, you are instantly qualified to begin a business selling expert information to the public at a fee. I'm gonna have to get Robocats on the horn, there's a living to be had here.
Anyway, they ranked all the playoff teams in the most intelligent manner one could think of: they gave them a number ranking (quantity 1:12), broke it down by position, and got really tricky when they summoned the gods of addition to come up with an end result. That's right: Scouts Inc. has a team evaluation system that involves not one, but each and every fault of general analysis:
-no scale
-no average or control group
-assumption of equidistant skill level seperation...
-between all tweleve teams...
-at every postion...
-assumption of equivlent position value
-assumption that coach value is perfectly equal to any other position...
-like Quarterback for example
and of course the clincher:
-totally subjective rankings to ensure that no two intelligent people could ever agree on the same rankings.
What I am about to show you here is only their defensive rankings of the twelve playoff teams. Rest assured that the rest of their crap is more of the same.
Anyway, here are the Football Outsiders numbers for all of the defensive data from 2007. FO has about 1/4 the resources of Scouts Inc, works half as hard, and knows roughly thirty eight times more about football.
You don't have to be a big fan of DVOA to use it for a loose standard of actual real defensive power rankings. Here are the 12 playoff teams ranked in order of defensive effeciency (in bold):
1. Tennessee -13.5%
2. Pittsburgh -12.5%
3. Indianapolis -10.8%
4. Tampa Bay -10.2%
5. San Diego -9.8%
6. Washington -7.2%
7. New England -6.1%
8. Dallas -5.8%
9. Seattle -5.4%
10. Jacksonville -3.3%
11. New York Giants -2.9%
12. Green Bay Packers -1.3%
And the Scouts Inc rankings:
1. Dallas Cowboys 12
1. Green Bay Packers 12
3. San Diego Chargers 13
4. New England Patriots 14
5. Indianapolis Colts 18
5. Seattle Seahawks 18
7. Pittsburgh Steelers 20
8. Tennessee Titans 21
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24
10. New York Giants 25
11. Jacksonville Jaguars 27
12. Washington Redskins 30
That's actually correct, Football Outsiders system which uses every play of the season as a data point ranks Green Bay's defense as the least effective. Scouts Inc, which uses some anonymous dudes' "professional" opinion, finds them to be the best.
Great system.
This one makes me Smile a little Bit
Scouts Inc decided to take their decisive man power and knowledge and apply it towards a good cause: subjectively ranking all twelve playoff coaches.
Just because that wasn't nearly enough, no, they had to drop this gem:
4. Washington Redskins
Joe Gibbs is one of the best coaches of all time and will eventually be in the Hall of Fame
One problem. Joe Gibbs has been in the Hall of Fame. For eleven years.
Just because that wasn't nearly enough, no, they had to drop this gem:
4. Washington Redskins
Joe Gibbs is one of the best coaches of all time and will eventually be in the Hall of Fame
One problem. Joe Gibbs has been in the Hall of Fame. For eleven years.
Thursday, December 13, 2007
Scouts Inc rates your team's Quarterback!
Ineffectively.
The reason why is very simple. Simple enough that they admit it themselves, before the list is even seen.
The hardest part was deciding how to rank them. Do we look at just this year? Do we look at their careers and their body of work? We decided it would be a mixture of the two, that we couldn't completely ignore a veteran with a history of great success having a subpar year.
The hardest part is coming up with a method of evalutation. Really? I can give you a ton of ways of evaluating QBs (in no particular order, as Scouts Inc. would prefer it):
yards
touchdowns
yards per attempt
completion percentage
consecutive starts
college starts
drawn out of a hat
drawn out of a shoebox
alphabetically by last name
alphabetically by first name
alphabetically by middle name
numerically
color of teams home jersey
QB DVOA
age
height
weight
stench
and last and most definately least:
Wins!
The point is, if you are going to make a list, you need to have criteria. "A mix" of the criteria does not cut it. Then you just have subjective dribble.
The reason why is very simple. Simple enough that they admit it themselves, before the list is even seen.
The hardest part was deciding how to rank them. Do we look at just this year? Do we look at their careers and their body of work? We decided it would be a mixture of the two, that we couldn't completely ignore a veteran with a history of great success having a subpar year.
The hardest part is coming up with a method of evalutation. Really? I can give you a ton of ways of evaluating QBs (in no particular order, as Scouts Inc. would prefer it):
yards
touchdowns
yards per attempt
completion percentage
consecutive starts
college starts
drawn out of a hat
drawn out of a shoebox
alphabetically by last name
alphabetically by first name
alphabetically by middle name
numerically
color of teams home jersey
QB DVOA
age
height
weight
stench
and last and most definately least:
Wins!
The point is, if you are going to make a list, you need to have criteria. "A mix" of the criteria does not cut it. Then you just have subjective dribble.
Friday, April 13, 2007
A Bonus Article Tonight for all those Loyal Readers
All 4 of ya.
We are probably going to be doing nothing but draft stuff for the next two weeks in this here space because...well, nobody is going to write anything about anything in football but the draft between now and then.
Anyway, I've noticed that most scouts will overvalue a players' physical tools, especially at the wide receiver position, and then when said player fails to meet expectations they write article about how tough it is to pinpoint receivers.
Well, the truth of the matter is, it's not all that hard. You've just got to look for the guys with the most college experience. Receiver is a very mental position and you want a guy who is aware of what is going on around him playing for you. So if you are going to get behind a WR prospect, get behind a guy like Dwayne Bowe, a highly rated 4 year player (3 year starter) at LSU. You'll be right more often than this guy.
But he will learn his lesson eventually. At least, thats what I thought until I read this article. Now I'm convinced he won't ever learn why he sucks at scouting prospects.
You need to be an INsider to access it. Sorry.
Productive NFL wide receivers come in many different sizes, shapes and speeds. Just take a look at the wide receivers who led the NFL in catches last season. Sure, Houston's Andre Johnson fits the mold as the league leader with 103 receptions. After all, the former No. 3 overall pick (2003) checks in at 6-foot-3 and 219 pounds with 4.4 speed. But how do you explain Mike Furrey, a former undrafted free agent in 2000, hauling in the second-most passes (98) in 2006?
Furrey plays the slot receiver in Mike Martz' offense.
Seriously Todd, no position in football is more affected by what their team is doing around them than the WR position. You probably should know this considering the career path you've chosen.
Andre Johnson caught a bunch O hitches from David Carr. That type of offense is only successful if you turn those hitches into TD's sometimes.
Other productive NFL receivers who slipped in recent drafts include Carolina's Steve Smith (third round, 2001), Seattle's Deion Branch (second round, 2002), Arizona's Anquan Boldin (second round, 2003), the N.Y. Jets' Jerricho Cotchery (fourth round, 2004) and New Orleans' Marques Colston (seventh round, 2006). Meanwhile, David Terrell (2001), Ashley Lelie (2002), Charles Rogers (2003) and Reggie Williams (2004) all looked the part as high draft picks coming out of college but haven't come close to matching production for investment.
Steve Smith, 2 years CC + 2 years at Utah, all starting
Deion Branch, 4 years at Louisville
Anquan Boldin, 4 years at Flordia State (correct me if I'm wrong)
Marques Colston, 4 year starter at Hofstra (also a really lucky find)
Jerrico Cotchery, 3 year starter at NC State, additional PT as a Freshman
David Terrell, 2 1/2 year starter
Ashley Lelie, 3 year starter
Charles Rogers, 3 year starter
Reggie Williams, 2 1/2 year starter
Have you learned anything from this trend? I'm guessing not. Okay then, moving on.
The bottom line is that evaluating wide receiver talent from the college ranks has become maddening for NFL front offices. In my estimation, there are a couple reasons for this. First off, I would argue that quarterback is the only position with more outside factors to skew collegiate production. Secondly, the ability to "separate" is the most important skill for a wide receiver. Unfortunately, it also can be the trickiest to properly evaluate.
Todd McShay actually thinks that QB production is the most skewed position on the entire field. He actually wrote this paragraph. This is hilarious. The easist position where a convienient FORMULA exists to project success to the NFL level is the position that Todd McShay believes is the one that gets skewed the most.
Did I read that correctly?
Secondly, the ability to seperate is not really all that meaningful of a quality for a receiver. The fact that you value it so much completely explains why you can't evaluate them properly. I would think the two biggest sticking points for grading a reciever are:
1) How well he plays the ball (the catch)
2) How well he gets yards after the catch (after the catch)
I would say that MOST receivers are relatively identical in the way they seperate. This probably explains why you can't grade a difference accurately. It's also a huge red flag that you are doing this whole scouting thing improperly, but I'm not one to tell you how to do your job.
Or am I?
While catching the ball is the ultimate goal, a receiver with great hands is rendered useless if he can't get open. It's not difficult to evaluate a receiver's hands, top-end speed and leaping ability. The challenge when evaluating a wide receiver's separation skills is to sift through those potentially deceptive variables, which include his supporting cast, the offensive system he plays in and the types of defensive coverage and level of competition he faces.
It's good that its not that hard to evaluate hands, speed, and leaping ability, because those things really don't matter. I mean, you don't want to draft a guy who drops the ball a lot, but those guys stick out like sore thumbs even at the Collegiate level.
Also, why would supporting cast, offensive system, or coverage (well, I can sort of see coverage) have anything to do with how well a guy seperates. You still haven't even told us why getting seperation is important. You have no credibility whatsoever.
Although there's no exact formula that makes up a receiver's ability to separate, here's a look at some of the key ingredients:
There's probably no formula because it doesn't really matter. Let me tell you how the passing game works. The defense, if in a zone, rolls coverage to where most receivers are. Not all receivers are going to seperate on any given play. The QB reads the defense and hits the open guy.
So, seperation, as you call it, is really just the ability to run.
Wonderful. I can see how someone would think that a receiver is defined by his ability to run while playing football. But lets see some of Todd McShay's fancy terms for this skill:
1. Initial burst
2. Recognition/instincts
3. Change-of-direction skills
4. Competitiveness
Initial burst, you mean running Todd?
I personally think recognition and insticts are the most important trait for a successful receiver. Hey kiddies, you know how you develop recognition and insticts? Stay in school. Play your senior year. Learn something. College is fun. Enjoy it. Become a better NFL prospect in the process.
Change of direction skills is completely useless and arbitrary. Unless you are talking about run after catch skills. Then its just arbitrary, but can have a conceivable use.
Competitveness is not a possible criteria to get open. It just isn't.
Jerry Rice will forever be the ultimate example of this attribute. A relentless approach to the craft -- both in practice and in games -- allowed Rice to overcome below-average speed throughout his brilliant 20-year career.
Joe Montana, Steve Young, and Rich Gannon may have had something to do with this too Todd.
This is a nice gritty article from Todd McShay with great upside and a high ceiling to allow for a lot of potential growth. What it's missing in facts and analysis (everything), it makes up for with initial burst and competitiveness.
We are probably going to be doing nothing but draft stuff for the next two weeks in this here space because...well, nobody is going to write anything about anything in football but the draft between now and then.
Anyway, I've noticed that most scouts will overvalue a players' physical tools, especially at the wide receiver position, and then when said player fails to meet expectations they write article about how tough it is to pinpoint receivers.
Well, the truth of the matter is, it's not all that hard. You've just got to look for the guys with the most college experience. Receiver is a very mental position and you want a guy who is aware of what is going on around him playing for you. So if you are going to get behind a WR prospect, get behind a guy like Dwayne Bowe, a highly rated 4 year player (3 year starter) at LSU. You'll be right more often than this guy.
But he will learn his lesson eventually. At least, thats what I thought until I read this article. Now I'm convinced he won't ever learn why he sucks at scouting prospects.
You need to be an INsider to access it. Sorry.
Productive NFL wide receivers come in many different sizes, shapes and speeds. Just take a look at the wide receivers who led the NFL in catches last season. Sure, Houston's Andre Johnson fits the mold as the league leader with 103 receptions. After all, the former No. 3 overall pick (2003) checks in at 6-foot-3 and 219 pounds with 4.4 speed. But how do you explain Mike Furrey, a former undrafted free agent in 2000, hauling in the second-most passes (98) in 2006?
Furrey plays the slot receiver in Mike Martz' offense.
Seriously Todd, no position in football is more affected by what their team is doing around them than the WR position. You probably should know this considering the career path you've chosen.
Andre Johnson caught a bunch O hitches from David Carr. That type of offense is only successful if you turn those hitches into TD's sometimes.
Other productive NFL receivers who slipped in recent drafts include Carolina's Steve Smith (third round, 2001), Seattle's Deion Branch (second round, 2002), Arizona's Anquan Boldin (second round, 2003), the N.Y. Jets' Jerricho Cotchery (fourth round, 2004) and New Orleans' Marques Colston (seventh round, 2006). Meanwhile, David Terrell (2001), Ashley Lelie (2002), Charles Rogers (2003) and Reggie Williams (2004) all looked the part as high draft picks coming out of college but haven't come close to matching production for investment.
Steve Smith, 2 years CC + 2 years at Utah, all starting
Deion Branch, 4 years at Louisville
Anquan Boldin, 4 years at Flordia State (correct me if I'm wrong)
Marques Colston, 4 year starter at Hofstra (also a really lucky find)
Jerrico Cotchery, 3 year starter at NC State, additional PT as a Freshman
David Terrell, 2 1/2 year starter
Ashley Lelie, 3 year starter
Charles Rogers, 3 year starter
Reggie Williams, 2 1/2 year starter
Have you learned anything from this trend? I'm guessing not. Okay then, moving on.
The bottom line is that evaluating wide receiver talent from the college ranks has become maddening for NFL front offices. In my estimation, there are a couple reasons for this. First off, I would argue that quarterback is the only position with more outside factors to skew collegiate production. Secondly, the ability to "separate" is the most important skill for a wide receiver. Unfortunately, it also can be the trickiest to properly evaluate.
Todd McShay actually thinks that QB production is the most skewed position on the entire field. He actually wrote this paragraph. This is hilarious. The easist position where a convienient FORMULA exists to project success to the NFL level is the position that Todd McShay believes is the one that gets skewed the most.
Did I read that correctly?
Secondly, the ability to seperate is not really all that meaningful of a quality for a receiver. The fact that you value it so much completely explains why you can't evaluate them properly. I would think the two biggest sticking points for grading a reciever are:
1) How well he plays the ball (the catch)
2) How well he gets yards after the catch (after the catch)
I would say that MOST receivers are relatively identical in the way they seperate. This probably explains why you can't grade a difference accurately. It's also a huge red flag that you are doing this whole scouting thing improperly, but I'm not one to tell you how to do your job.
Or am I?
While catching the ball is the ultimate goal, a receiver with great hands is rendered useless if he can't get open. It's not difficult to evaluate a receiver's hands, top-end speed and leaping ability. The challenge when evaluating a wide receiver's separation skills is to sift through those potentially deceptive variables, which include his supporting cast, the offensive system he plays in and the types of defensive coverage and level of competition he faces.
It's good that its not that hard to evaluate hands, speed, and leaping ability, because those things really don't matter. I mean, you don't want to draft a guy who drops the ball a lot, but those guys stick out like sore thumbs even at the Collegiate level.
Also, why would supporting cast, offensive system, or coverage (well, I can sort of see coverage) have anything to do with how well a guy seperates. You still haven't even told us why getting seperation is important. You have no credibility whatsoever.
Although there's no exact formula that makes up a receiver's ability to separate, here's a look at some of the key ingredients:
There's probably no formula because it doesn't really matter. Let me tell you how the passing game works. The defense, if in a zone, rolls coverage to where most receivers are. Not all receivers are going to seperate on any given play. The QB reads the defense and hits the open guy.
So, seperation, as you call it, is really just the ability to run.
Wonderful. I can see how someone would think that a receiver is defined by his ability to run while playing football. But lets see some of Todd McShay's fancy terms for this skill:
1. Initial burst
2. Recognition/instincts
3. Change-of-direction skills
4. Competitiveness
Initial burst, you mean running Todd?
I personally think recognition and insticts are the most important trait for a successful receiver. Hey kiddies, you know how you develop recognition and insticts? Stay in school. Play your senior year. Learn something. College is fun. Enjoy it. Become a better NFL prospect in the process.
Change of direction skills is completely useless and arbitrary. Unless you are talking about run after catch skills. Then its just arbitrary, but can have a conceivable use.
Competitveness is not a possible criteria to get open. It just isn't.
Jerry Rice will forever be the ultimate example of this attribute. A relentless approach to the craft -- both in practice and in games -- allowed Rice to overcome below-average speed throughout his brilliant 20-year career.
Joe Montana, Steve Young, and Rich Gannon may have had something to do with this too Todd.
This is a nice gritty article from Todd McShay with great upside and a high ceiling to allow for a lot of potential growth. What it's missing in facts and analysis (everything), it makes up for with initial burst and competitiveness.
Thursday, April 12, 2007
The Moment You've All Been Waiting For
Todd McShay and me in a very one sided debate!
I feel like a fighter right before the heavyweight title.
Heeeelllllloooo, Todd.
Todd McShay: Hello, SportsNation. Less than three weeks until the draft and it's still snowing in many parts of the country... We might as well talk shop, right?
Colby (South Jersey): In your latest mock you have Quinn going to the Vikings at the seven spot. I've also heard names like Peterson or Ginn Jr. Sounds like they are focusing on the offense in the draft. What do you think their biggest need is and can they compete if they fill it?
SportsNation Todd McShay: I would rank the Vikings needs as follows: WR, DE, CB, TE, QB. If Quinn falls to them at No. 7 I think they could take advantage of the value. Otherwise, I think they'd be better served addressing some of those other needs. There isn't a WR worth drafting at No. 7 after C. Johnson, and the same can be said for DE after Gaines Adams. My first priority would be to trade out. If they can't get a deal done (which is more likely than not), I think they should take DS LaRon Landry or CB Leon Hall.
Todd, I paid big money to your employer so I could hear you do idiotic and baseless things like deem Brady Quinn overrated, and now I hear some blasphemy like the Vikings could actually get value for him at seven?
For shame, Todd!
But at least you didn't disappoint me with that list of needs. That, my friend, is some freakin horrible analysis. Good work.
The Vikings don't need a DE. They took DEs in the first round in 04 and 05. These guys have turned out to be very good players, but you wouldn't know that because you are too busy getting your panties in a bunch over sack totals. It isn't going to matter who is playing WR if Tavaris Jackson is their QB. You could have gotten away easy if you just said "they could really use a QB (factual statement)", instead of some garbage about how they should be looking for WR, DE, CB, TE, and QB IN THAT ORDER DAMN IT!
Seriously though, if the Vikings land Quinn at 7, it would be the duty of Jerry Angelo, Ted Thompson, and Matt Millen to track down Phil Savage and rip his vocal chords out as punishment for passing on Quinn. Millen would deserve the same treatment, but lets face it, the Bears and Packers are much better off as long as Millen calls the shots in Detroit.
Rob, Somewhere,TN: Am I the only one thinking that the Raiders may be trying to move down to #4 and take Quinn?
SportsNation Todd McShay: That's a bad idea. If you can get an elite WR like Calvin Johnson or an exceptionally gifted QB like Russell, why trade down to take an overrated QB like Quinn?
Oh Todd, no you didn't.
First of all, the correct answer to the question would be yes, Rob from somewhere in Tennessee is the only one thinking the Raiders might do that.
But you, Todd McShay, are bad at your job. See, the whole idea behind a scout is to actively try to do everything necessary to discover who the best prospects really are. Not to try to justify hype by falling in love with skills that Russell shares with Leaf and Akili Smith and Cade McNown and all those busts.
Also, you are getting paid a king's ransom to have a TV/Interweb Chat gig where you answer people's questions with some degree of accuracy. Your job is NOT to perpetuate the hype of Russell/Johnson, it's to dismiss it when it isn't necessary.
Calvin Johnson: 34 NCAA Starts
JaMarcus Russell: 29 NCAA Starts
Dwayne Bowe: 35 NCAA Starts
Brady Quinn: 45 NCAA Starts
Then again, if anyone in the league didn't think Todd McShay was a lazy-ass, worthless scout, he'd be working for a team right now and not ESPN.
Darryl (Oakland, CA):: I've seen that Trent Edwards has moved up to either the Raiders or the Lions in the second round. If the Raiders take Calvin Johnson, will the first pick of the second round be Edwards?
SportsNation Todd McShay: I've heard some of the same rumors, Darryl. There are also rumblings of the Lions' interest in Edwards with the second pick of the second round. I'll be honest; I like Edwards as a developmental type, but not that early. I still think Drew Stanton has better pro potential.
You know, Trent Edwards has college stats, Todd. It really wouldn't be that hard to do some background research since its only your freakin job.
WTF is a developmental type? Is that code for "not a good prospect, but if you let him reach his prime before he reaches the field, he might appear better than he really is"? Because if so, that would be a point worth making.
Somehow, I get the feeling that Todd McShay actually believes that with the right coaching and the same damn amount of practice time as every other player in the league, Trent Edwards will actually exceed his career path! Woot, he developed differently than every other QB in the history of the game! I'm Todd McShay bitches!
Josh (Philly): Todd-This isn't a "why do you hate on Notre Dame" type of question, but what about Quinn's game makes you so quick to slap the "overrated" label on the guy? I know he underperformed in big games in college, but couldn't that just as easily have been a product of the quality of the talent around him when matched up against teams with elite talent?
SportsNation Todd McShay: I think Quinn is a good prospect and he's worth a mid-to-late first round pick in most drafts. But I don't think he's worth a top-five pick. In addition to his big game woes, he's not accurate enough for my liking. I think playing at ND and under Weis, as well as being a part of a 2007 class that lacks a lot of elite prospects, has really skewed Quinn's value.
Josh in Philly, I love you.
Todd, why don't you explain to the nice people why Quinn projects as a mid round pick and Russell as a top 5 pick guy?
Russells Draft Projection Comparibles:
1. Rex Grossman
2. Kellen Clemens
3. Cade McNown
Quinn's Draft Projection Comparibles:
1. Donovan McNabb
2. Carson Palmer
3. Jay Cutler
Todd McShay has access to the same information I do. Either he hates Notre Dame and has a bias against Quinn, or he's a lazy scout who does little actual work and gets paid a lot to be wrong.
I'm betting on the latter.
And WTF does a statement like Charlie Weis "has really skewed Quinn's value" mean? Holy fuckin a Todd McShay, you are both biased AND a moron. Do you really expect Quinn to reject the teachings of Charlie Weis once he hits the pro level?
Kevin (Berkeley): I've heard rumors that because of "character issues" and fumbling issues, Marshawn Lynch's stock has dropped to late-first round status. Is there any truth to this? Also, when exactly will Daymeion Hughes get drafted? I haven't seen two mock drafts where he goes in the same place.
SportsNation Todd McShay: The character stuff is hard to assess on Lynch because he was never charged or convicted with anything, although his ex-girlfriend did get a restraining order against him. I think he could drop to the bottom-half of the first round, but more due to his fumbling issues, nagging back injury and concerns about his inexperience as a fulltime load-carrying back.
You are ignorant. You don't need a conviction to have character issues. You need a conviction to be a criminal. I think you are confusing the two terms.
Someone will draft Marshawn Lynch in the top half of the round for need, I promise you.
J (Maryland): Hey Todd, do the Ravens draft a QB?
SportsNation Todd McShay: At some point in the middle rounds it would be a good idea. Someone with developmental upside such as Beck or Houston's Kevin Kolb. But they have other needs to address early on, including CB, OT and LB.
Developmental, developmental, developmental, upside, upside, upside. I, too, Todd, think that the Ravens would be better off with the next Giovanni Carmazzi or Chris Redman than with someone at another position who can actually play in this league.
Oh wait, no I don't. I just don't like the Ravens all that much.
Aric- Columbus,Oh: Todd, people are saying the Browns should draft Troy in the Second Round because he is a town favorite and compares him to Drew Brees. What do you think?
SportsNation Todd McShay: Most importantly, the Browns aren't going to draft a player because he's a hometown favorite. It just doesn't work that way.
McShay-English translation: Brady Quinn is overrated.
You know what, this debate is over.
I feel like a fighter right before the heavyweight title.
Heeeelllllloooo, Todd.
Todd McShay: Hello, SportsNation. Less than three weeks until the draft and it's still snowing in many parts of the country... We might as well talk shop, right?
Colby (South Jersey): In your latest mock you have Quinn going to the Vikings at the seven spot. I've also heard names like Peterson or Ginn Jr. Sounds like they are focusing on the offense in the draft. What do you think their biggest need is and can they compete if they fill it?
SportsNation Todd McShay: I would rank the Vikings needs as follows: WR, DE, CB, TE, QB. If Quinn falls to them at No. 7 I think they could take advantage of the value. Otherwise, I think they'd be better served addressing some of those other needs. There isn't a WR worth drafting at No. 7 after C. Johnson, and the same can be said for DE after Gaines Adams. My first priority would be to trade out. If they can't get a deal done (which is more likely than not), I think they should take DS LaRon Landry or CB Leon Hall.
Todd, I paid big money to your employer so I could hear you do idiotic and baseless things like deem Brady Quinn overrated, and now I hear some blasphemy like the Vikings could actually get value for him at seven?
For shame, Todd!
But at least you didn't disappoint me with that list of needs. That, my friend, is some freakin horrible analysis. Good work.
The Vikings don't need a DE. They took DEs in the first round in 04 and 05. These guys have turned out to be very good players, but you wouldn't know that because you are too busy getting your panties in a bunch over sack totals. It isn't going to matter who is playing WR if Tavaris Jackson is their QB. You could have gotten away easy if you just said "they could really use a QB (factual statement)", instead of some garbage about how they should be looking for WR, DE, CB, TE, and QB IN THAT ORDER DAMN IT!
Seriously though, if the Vikings land Quinn at 7, it would be the duty of Jerry Angelo, Ted Thompson, and Matt Millen to track down Phil Savage and rip his vocal chords out as punishment for passing on Quinn. Millen would deserve the same treatment, but lets face it, the Bears and Packers are much better off as long as Millen calls the shots in Detroit.
Rob, Somewhere,TN: Am I the only one thinking that the Raiders may be trying to move down to #4 and take Quinn?
SportsNation Todd McShay: That's a bad idea. If you can get an elite WR like Calvin Johnson or an exceptionally gifted QB like Russell, why trade down to take an overrated QB like Quinn?
Oh Todd, no you didn't.
First of all, the correct answer to the question would be yes, Rob from somewhere in Tennessee is the only one thinking the Raiders might do that.
But you, Todd McShay, are bad at your job. See, the whole idea behind a scout is to actively try to do everything necessary to discover who the best prospects really are. Not to try to justify hype by falling in love with skills that Russell shares with Leaf and Akili Smith and Cade McNown and all those busts.
Also, you are getting paid a king's ransom to have a TV/Interweb Chat gig where you answer people's questions with some degree of accuracy. Your job is NOT to perpetuate the hype of Russell/Johnson, it's to dismiss it when it isn't necessary.
Calvin Johnson: 34 NCAA Starts
JaMarcus Russell: 29 NCAA Starts
Dwayne Bowe: 35 NCAA Starts
Brady Quinn: 45 NCAA Starts
Then again, if anyone in the league didn't think Todd McShay was a lazy-ass, worthless scout, he'd be working for a team right now and not ESPN.
Darryl (Oakland, CA):: I've seen that Trent Edwards has moved up to either the Raiders or the Lions in the second round. If the Raiders take Calvin Johnson, will the first pick of the second round be Edwards?
SportsNation Todd McShay: I've heard some of the same rumors, Darryl. There are also rumblings of the Lions' interest in Edwards with the second pick of the second round. I'll be honest; I like Edwards as a developmental type, but not that early. I still think Drew Stanton has better pro potential.
You know, Trent Edwards has college stats, Todd. It really wouldn't be that hard to do some background research since its only your freakin job.
WTF is a developmental type? Is that code for "not a good prospect, but if you let him reach his prime before he reaches the field, he might appear better than he really is"? Because if so, that would be a point worth making.
Somehow, I get the feeling that Todd McShay actually believes that with the right coaching and the same damn amount of practice time as every other player in the league, Trent Edwards will actually exceed his career path! Woot, he developed differently than every other QB in the history of the game! I'm Todd McShay bitches!
Josh (Philly): Todd-This isn't a "why do you hate on Notre Dame" type of question, but what about Quinn's game makes you so quick to slap the "overrated" label on the guy? I know he underperformed in big games in college, but couldn't that just as easily have been a product of the quality of the talent around him when matched up against teams with elite talent?
SportsNation Todd McShay: I think Quinn is a good prospect and he's worth a mid-to-late first round pick in most drafts. But I don't think he's worth a top-five pick. In addition to his big game woes, he's not accurate enough for my liking. I think playing at ND and under Weis, as well as being a part of a 2007 class that lacks a lot of elite prospects, has really skewed Quinn's value.
Josh in Philly, I love you.
Todd, why don't you explain to the nice people why Quinn projects as a mid round pick and Russell as a top 5 pick guy?
Russells Draft Projection Comparibles:
1. Rex Grossman
2. Kellen Clemens
3. Cade McNown
Quinn's Draft Projection Comparibles:
1. Donovan McNabb
2. Carson Palmer
3. Jay Cutler
Todd McShay has access to the same information I do. Either he hates Notre Dame and has a bias against Quinn, or he's a lazy scout who does little actual work and gets paid a lot to be wrong.
I'm betting on the latter.
And WTF does a statement like Charlie Weis "has really skewed Quinn's value" mean? Holy fuckin a Todd McShay, you are both biased AND a moron. Do you really expect Quinn to reject the teachings of Charlie Weis once he hits the pro level?
Kevin (Berkeley): I've heard rumors that because of "character issues" and fumbling issues, Marshawn Lynch's stock has dropped to late-first round status. Is there any truth to this? Also, when exactly will Daymeion Hughes get drafted? I haven't seen two mock drafts where he goes in the same place.
SportsNation Todd McShay: The character stuff is hard to assess on Lynch because he was never charged or convicted with anything, although his ex-girlfriend did get a restraining order against him. I think he could drop to the bottom-half of the first round, but more due to his fumbling issues, nagging back injury and concerns about his inexperience as a fulltime load-carrying back.
You are ignorant. You don't need a conviction to have character issues. You need a conviction to be a criminal. I think you are confusing the two terms.
Someone will draft Marshawn Lynch in the top half of the round for need, I promise you.
J (Maryland): Hey Todd, do the Ravens draft a QB?
SportsNation Todd McShay: At some point in the middle rounds it would be a good idea. Someone with developmental upside such as Beck or Houston's Kevin Kolb. But they have other needs to address early on, including CB, OT and LB.
Developmental, developmental, developmental, upside, upside, upside. I, too, Todd, think that the Ravens would be better off with the next Giovanni Carmazzi or Chris Redman than with someone at another position who can actually play in this league.
Oh wait, no I don't. I just don't like the Ravens all that much.
Aric- Columbus,Oh: Todd, people are saying the Browns should draft Troy in the Second Round because he is a town favorite and compares him to Drew Brees. What do you think?
SportsNation Todd McShay: Most importantly, the Browns aren't going to draft a player because he's a hometown favorite. It just doesn't work that way.
McShay-English translation: Brady Quinn is overrated.
You know what, this debate is over.
Tuesday, April 3, 2007
Rodd Newhouse Chat
Sometimes it's just not fair for an NFL personel guy to have to field questions from the bottom third of American society, but it helps to know what you are talking about.
I love Scouts Inc!
Brandon(Terre Haute): Hey Rodd, is Micheal Turner going to go anywhere and what will it take to get him? Where will David Carr end up?
SportsNation Rodd Newhouse: Brandon, it is going to take a lot to get MT. This guy can play! That is why the Chargers put the high tender on him. He gives great assurances to a team that is built on running the football. As for Carr, I think his agent is putting up smoke screens byt saying Carr does not want to land in OAK. Thereare no guarantees the Raiders are taking a QB number one, but if they do, Carr still sees himself as a starter and wants a chance to compete as a backup somewhere like CLV, or CAR
First of all, Brandon is the first person to actually formulate a question that can be both read and answered. I'm sure he bothered to ask an NFL insider what the value of Michael Turner was so he could receive an answer like, "a lot". There is no possible way that he already knew that before asking the question. Also Rodd, the question was not "Can you say some nice things about Michael Turner?", it was "How much will it cost to get him?"
At least he answered the David Carr question but not before throwing out the gem, "Carr sees himself as a starter and wants a chance to compete as a backup somewhere..." Marvelous.
Ryan, Ohio: What do you think of the Jamal Lewis signing by the Browns?
SportsNation Rodd Newhouse: J. Lew is still a solid running back. Even if the Browns get AP at the #3 spot, I see that as a win for the Browns. A solid veteran RB to compliment a young fresh player who will have a great mentor to learn from on the field. (not off the field) ha ha ha.
Hilarious.
Jamal Lewis defense adjusted points above replacement (DPAR) over the last 5 years:
2006 3.8
2005 -12.9(!)
2004 17.3
2003 30.4
2002 16.0
He hasn't been above league average since 2004. In fact, he hasn't even been the best RB on his own team since 2004. So, Newhouse is right, Adrian Peterson will be a great pick, because it accelerates Jamal Lewis' departure, which should win the Browns a few games.
How pathethic is Jamal Lewis going to be when he doesn't get to go up against the Cleveland defense anymore?
Shawn Peninsula, OH: Do you think the Browns should go after Trent Green, David Carr, or do you think that they should let Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson battle for the starting QB.
SportsNation Rodd Newhouse: I personally feel as though Charlie Frye can and will be a good QB in the NFL. the problem is that he is on a bad football team right now. He is being asked to do too much. Carr and/or Green would be able to step in and help Frye right away becuase they both have experience and need a fresh new start. Anderson is just merely a backup at best.
What are you basing this Charlie Frye support on?
Charlie Frye DPAR:
2006 -17.5
2005 -9.3
The numbers say Frye regessed from his rookie year. I wouldn't worry too much about that though since Frye is nowhere near replacement level and shouldn't even be on an NFL roster.
Charlie Frye is a perfect example of how the term "sleeper" is an oxymoron. Players in the draft who get the sleeper tag always go two rounds before they should (see: Gocong, Chris) and rarely justify their draft status. A sleeper is supposed to indicate a potential draft day steal, but in reality just creates a sizable market for the player. Thus, there really can't be any sleepers.
Carr or Green would both be significant upgrades. Green's the better of the two, but also has no future beyond a year or two. Which is good, since the Browns can just draft Brady Quinn and plan on being a perenial playoff contender. But then there's the whole Jamal Lewis issue...it must really suck to be a Browns fan. USC has a better offensive backfield.
Amer (San Jose, ca): Hey Rodd, Where will Lance Briggs play in 2007?
SportsNation Rodd Newhouse: ABSOLUTELY! You play for almost 700k last year, and you can't play for 400k per WEEK this year. Gime a break. His bark is loud, but make no mistake about it, whether traded or withthe Bears, he will be in ubiform and collecting his checks. He may sit a few weeks if still with the bears, but he will not sit more than a month, becasue hw only hurts himself by then.
Ok, first of all the question was WHERE Lance Briggs will play, not if he will at all. That said, Rodd's probably stumbled upon the right answer here (sort of since he only kind of picks a position). Anyway, the intelligent response would be that Briggs has little leverage. Anyone with experience in dealing with players knows that Briggs' threat to sit out the first ten games of 2007 is without substance. Outside of leaving all that money on the table, who's going to pay a guy whos career regressed a bit because he stayed away from football for 2 1/2 months of one of the seasons in the prime of his career? Briggs would be putting the death sentence on his own career. In the months following the draft, you will see Briggs cut a deal with the Bears to sign the tender in exchange for a (non binding) promise to not use the tag on him next year. Sorry you had to come all the way out here to get that answer when Rodd Newhouse could have just as easily told you that himself, had he read the question properly.
Also, why would Briggs sit out a month and then return? That makes no fucking sense.
Jim, VA: Rodd, talk about smoke screens. What's this I hear about the Skins bringing in JaMarcus Russell in for a 'look.' A look at what? Don't have they have a good young QB in Campbell who I might add Gibbs traded a 2/3 and a 3 in the following year to Denver to move up to get this guy. NFL Execs and GM can't take them serious to draft Russell. Can they?
SportsNation Rodd Newhouse: You never know in this League. I have said before, once the 1st pick goes, all bets are off, and what once was a smoke screen is now a reality. Teams make trades and find themselves in situtions they had only dreamed of and just want to be prepared. While not likely, there is a possibility that this could happen.
What? I'm not even sure I follow his train of thought. First of all, it's NOT possible that JaMarcus Russell will be a Redskin. So you are wrong, Rodd Newhouse. Secondly, I'd like you to explain to us why all bets are off after the first pick. Is this your clever way of saying if the Raiders take Quinn #1 overall, any team might take Russell because of his oozing upside? Why would JaMarcus Russell falling to No. 6 be a situation that the Redskins dreamed of? In fact, why would it change anything they were planning to do. Maybe they could get better value trading out of the pick, but still this whole debate is stupid.
wolfbait, san diego: dallas had 3 noteworthy signings this offseason: leonard davis, brad johnson and ken hamlin. i think davis will thrive, especially as a G where his size will help and his lack of speed won't hurt. johnson is ok and hopefully will be a mentor that doesn't ever see the field. but hamlin is a FS known less for coverage and more for being a hard-hitter that can align the rest of the defense. so my question(s) is: how well do you see him solving dallas' deep coverage problems? can he help roy williams and the CB's back there enough? is pat watkins a guy that can be the FS of the future? thanks much!
SportsNation Rodd Newhouse: hamlin will help the Boys' secondary by playing FS. While he is kown for his hard hitting, he acutally can cover with good range. Williams should move to SS becasue he has shown he cannot cover a wet paper bag. he will be better served closer to the LOS. Watkins only started last year by default and is a backup. The Boys' still need help oposite T Newman. A. Henry is NOT a CB. his best position is as a backup safety, becasue he lacks the speed to cover MvM.
Roy Williams was a classic case of a team not looking at a progressing trend before investing. At the time Roy Williams was drafted, the skill set of an enforcing safety was in high demand accross the league. Had Jerry Jones done a little foward thinking research, he might have noticed that offenses were trending towards faster TEs. Now, 5 years later, it's clear that Roy Williams' skill set makes him a big liability in coverage. Roy Williams is nothing more than a below average safety. If he was picked ten years before he was, he would have been a perrenial pro bowler. Actually, he is a perennial pro bowler, but that's only because the people who vote for pro bowlers are ignorant. Adrian Wilson is a better safety completely wasted than Roy Williams. He would have been a legit pro bowler in the 1990's.
The best personell guys stay ahead of the curve. Jerry Jones is not one of the best personel guys.
The interesting thing is that Hamlin may suffer from the same problems that Williams did. He's got better cover skills then Roy, but they aren't especially special (ha ha ha Rodd Newhouse). Bottom line is that the Dallas secondary still sucks.
Asher - Indy: I hadn't heard about Carr not wanting to join Raiders. Isn't that the only place he'd be a starter almost by default? Did you say that you think his agent saying that is a smoke-screen? To what purpose. I'm confused, obviously - can you elaborate?
SportsNation Rodd Newhouse: Carr wants to be a starter. Yes, it looks like he would be the default starter in OAK, but he has not proven himself in HST, so if the Raiders sign him, and still draft a QB, there is open competition for the starting QB position. It makes sense on his part to puthat out there, becasue he wants to see what OAK's real intentions are with him if/whne he signs. This kind of stuff happens all the time by agents. Similar situation with Briggs/CHI/WAS.
Maybe Carr doesn't want to go from Houston to the only team in the league with a worse line than Houston because that's not conducive to ressurecting a career? Is that at all possible? And how is this like Lance Briggs' situation at all? One guy ia a Free Agent, the other has the Franchise tag, a tag of which the only purpose is to prevent movement. These situations are nothing alike.
Soren (LA): Of the Sophmore QBs (VY, Leinhardt, and Cutler), who do you expect to slump and who do you expect to break-out this year?
SportsNation Rodd Newhouse: I expect #7 to slump a bit, becasue he is changing systems and has to learn e new system all over again. Culter should improve the most simply as a product of the system, and VY will improve, but will have a few more ups and downs.
Yeah, that new offense is really going to make Leinart look like a rookie again. There's no way he will improve on his impressive rookie year. Regression, Charlie Frye style! Yes, Cutler will improve, but for god sakes stop citing the system as evidence for anything. Yes, Denver has a very efficient system. No, Cutler is not a better player than Leinart. Vince Young should improve also, but he was clearly the worst passer of the three last year. More evidence that the ROY award means nothing.
AP (Boynton Beach,FL): Rodd I'm not sold on San Diego even though they had the best record in football last year they lost a lot of good people on that coaching staff
SportsNation Rodd Newhouse: AP, I share your concern. This team went 14-2 last year and almost completely didmantled the staff. While I think this was the most talented team in the NFL last year, now that they have lost their head coach and both coordinators, I think a lot of the continuity has been lost, and I do not see them repeating as divisional champs in 2007.
Holy crap! The continuity is gone! How will Chris Dielman and LaDainian Tomlinson ever be able to look at each other again? How can they expect to be better than the Raiders and Mr. Continuity himself, Lane Kiffin? Time to throw in the towel!
Steve Chicago: do you think the Bears would do the trade with the skins? Wouldn't it look bad for the organization if they do the deal as proposed by Drew Rossenhause? It will look like the Bears are caving into Briggs' demands...what would stop any other player unhappy with their contract from doing the same?
SportsNation Rodd Newhouse: Looks are not always what the look like. Rosenhaus is NOT in control of anything. The Bears are letting him do the work they do not want to do, and that is make phone calls to any suitors who may want to talk. ALL GM's knw each other and talk behind the scenes, so what we hear and read in the media from agents and players is NOT what is really going on behind the scenes. So if the trade gets done, it is becase V. Cerrato and J. Angelo agreed to the parameters.
Rosenhaus is the only party benefiting from this deal. The Bears don't have a use for the No. 6 pick and need Lance Briggs a lot more than Washington does. Briggs is in danger of losing his good image because of Rosenhaus' negotiating techniques. Also, I'd like to see some defense of the statement "looks aren't always what they look like." What?
mango: is Drew Rossenhause good for the game or bad for the game?
SportsNation Rodd Newhouse: By the way, Rosenhaus is really a great guy to do contracts with. he knows his stuff, but plays to the media too much sometimes and makes teams agitated, but that is his job for his clients, and he is actually quite good at representing his clients' interest. But trust, he knows when to strike a deal
Rosenhaus is a good agent. However, the question was whether or not he is good for the game. Read the damn question!
Rudy (San Diego, Ca): Rodd who wins and loses games players or coaches? SD still has the best team on the field!
SportsNation Rodd Newhouse: Ture. Players win the games, but without coaches players are not put in position to win games or make plays. I still think they are the most talented, but therr is a new regime in town and that will have an effect.
Thank you Rudy from San Diego.
Obviously Norv Turner will find a way to keep the ball out of LaDainian Tomlinsons hands and keep Phillip Rivers from throwing also. That horrible failure of a coach! He's going to punt on 2nd down and shit isn't he!
Gotta love Scouts Inc!
I love Scouts Inc!
Brandon(Terre Haute): Hey Rodd, is Micheal Turner going to go anywhere and what will it take to get him? Where will David Carr end up?
SportsNation Rodd Newhouse: Brandon, it is going to take a lot to get MT. This guy can play! That is why the Chargers put the high tender on him. He gives great assurances to a team that is built on running the football. As for Carr, I think his agent is putting up smoke screens byt saying Carr does not want to land in OAK. Thereare no guarantees the Raiders are taking a QB number one, but if they do, Carr still sees himself as a starter and wants a chance to compete as a backup somewhere like CLV, or CAR
First of all, Brandon is the first person to actually formulate a question that can be both read and answered. I'm sure he bothered to ask an NFL insider what the value of Michael Turner was so he could receive an answer like, "a lot". There is no possible way that he already knew that before asking the question. Also Rodd, the question was not "Can you say some nice things about Michael Turner?", it was "How much will it cost to get him?"
At least he answered the David Carr question but not before throwing out the gem, "Carr sees himself as a starter and wants a chance to compete as a backup somewhere..." Marvelous.
Ryan, Ohio: What do you think of the Jamal Lewis signing by the Browns?
SportsNation Rodd Newhouse: J. Lew is still a solid running back. Even if the Browns get AP at the #3 spot, I see that as a win for the Browns. A solid veteran RB to compliment a young fresh player who will have a great mentor to learn from on the field. (not off the field) ha ha ha.
Hilarious.
Jamal Lewis defense adjusted points above replacement (DPAR) over the last 5 years:
2006 3.8
2005 -12.9(!)
2004 17.3
2003 30.4
2002 16.0
He hasn't been above league average since 2004. In fact, he hasn't even been the best RB on his own team since 2004. So, Newhouse is right, Adrian Peterson will be a great pick, because it accelerates Jamal Lewis' departure, which should win the Browns a few games.
How pathethic is Jamal Lewis going to be when he doesn't get to go up against the Cleveland defense anymore?
Shawn Peninsula, OH: Do you think the Browns should go after Trent Green, David Carr, or do you think that they should let Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson battle for the starting QB.
SportsNation Rodd Newhouse: I personally feel as though Charlie Frye can and will be a good QB in the NFL. the problem is that he is on a bad football team right now. He is being asked to do too much. Carr and/or Green would be able to step in and help Frye right away becuase they both have experience and need a fresh new start. Anderson is just merely a backup at best.
What are you basing this Charlie Frye support on?
Charlie Frye DPAR:
2006 -17.5
2005 -9.3
The numbers say Frye regessed from his rookie year. I wouldn't worry too much about that though since Frye is nowhere near replacement level and shouldn't even be on an NFL roster.
Charlie Frye is a perfect example of how the term "sleeper" is an oxymoron. Players in the draft who get the sleeper tag always go two rounds before they should (see: Gocong, Chris) and rarely justify their draft status. A sleeper is supposed to indicate a potential draft day steal, but in reality just creates a sizable market for the player. Thus, there really can't be any sleepers.
Carr or Green would both be significant upgrades. Green's the better of the two, but also has no future beyond a year or two. Which is good, since the Browns can just draft Brady Quinn and plan on being a perenial playoff contender. But then there's the whole Jamal Lewis issue...it must really suck to be a Browns fan. USC has a better offensive backfield.
Amer (San Jose, ca): Hey Rodd, Where will Lance Briggs play in 2007?
SportsNation Rodd Newhouse: ABSOLUTELY! You play for almost 700k last year, and you can't play for 400k per WEEK this year. Gime a break. His bark is loud, but make no mistake about it, whether traded or withthe Bears, he will be in ubiform and collecting his checks. He may sit a few weeks if still with the bears, but he will not sit more than a month, becasue hw only hurts himself by then.
Ok, first of all the question was WHERE Lance Briggs will play, not if he will at all. That said, Rodd's probably stumbled upon the right answer here (sort of since he only kind of picks a position). Anyway, the intelligent response would be that Briggs has little leverage. Anyone with experience in dealing with players knows that Briggs' threat to sit out the first ten games of 2007 is without substance. Outside of leaving all that money on the table, who's going to pay a guy whos career regressed a bit because he stayed away from football for 2 1/2 months of one of the seasons in the prime of his career? Briggs would be putting the death sentence on his own career. In the months following the draft, you will see Briggs cut a deal with the Bears to sign the tender in exchange for a (non binding) promise to not use the tag on him next year. Sorry you had to come all the way out here to get that answer when Rodd Newhouse could have just as easily told you that himself, had he read the question properly.
Also, why would Briggs sit out a month and then return? That makes no fucking sense.
Jim, VA: Rodd, talk about smoke screens. What's this I hear about the Skins bringing in JaMarcus Russell in for a 'look.' A look at what? Don't have they have a good young QB in Campbell who I might add Gibbs traded a 2/3 and a 3 in the following year to Denver to move up to get this guy. NFL Execs and GM can't take them serious to draft Russell. Can they?
SportsNation Rodd Newhouse: You never know in this League. I have said before, once the 1st pick goes, all bets are off, and what once was a smoke screen is now a reality. Teams make trades and find themselves in situtions they had only dreamed of and just want to be prepared. While not likely, there is a possibility that this could happen.
What? I'm not even sure I follow his train of thought. First of all, it's NOT possible that JaMarcus Russell will be a Redskin. So you are wrong, Rodd Newhouse. Secondly, I'd like you to explain to us why all bets are off after the first pick. Is this your clever way of saying if the Raiders take Quinn #1 overall, any team might take Russell because of his oozing upside? Why would JaMarcus Russell falling to No. 6 be a situation that the Redskins dreamed of? In fact, why would it change anything they were planning to do. Maybe they could get better value trading out of the pick, but still this whole debate is stupid.
wolfbait, san diego: dallas had 3 noteworthy signings this offseason: leonard davis, brad johnson and ken hamlin. i think davis will thrive, especially as a G where his size will help and his lack of speed won't hurt. johnson is ok and hopefully will be a mentor that doesn't ever see the field. but hamlin is a FS known less for coverage and more for being a hard-hitter that can align the rest of the defense. so my question(s) is: how well do you see him solving dallas' deep coverage problems? can he help roy williams and the CB's back there enough? is pat watkins a guy that can be the FS of the future? thanks much!
SportsNation Rodd Newhouse: hamlin will help the Boys' secondary by playing FS. While he is kown for his hard hitting, he acutally can cover with good range. Williams should move to SS becasue he has shown he cannot cover a wet paper bag. he will be better served closer to the LOS. Watkins only started last year by default and is a backup. The Boys' still need help oposite T Newman. A. Henry is NOT a CB. his best position is as a backup safety, becasue he lacks the speed to cover MvM.
Roy Williams was a classic case of a team not looking at a progressing trend before investing. At the time Roy Williams was drafted, the skill set of an enforcing safety was in high demand accross the league. Had Jerry Jones done a little foward thinking research, he might have noticed that offenses were trending towards faster TEs. Now, 5 years later, it's clear that Roy Williams' skill set makes him a big liability in coverage. Roy Williams is nothing more than a below average safety. If he was picked ten years before he was, he would have been a perrenial pro bowler. Actually, he is a perennial pro bowler, but that's only because the people who vote for pro bowlers are ignorant. Adrian Wilson is a better safety completely wasted than Roy Williams. He would have been a legit pro bowler in the 1990's.
The best personell guys stay ahead of the curve. Jerry Jones is not one of the best personel guys.
The interesting thing is that Hamlin may suffer from the same problems that Williams did. He's got better cover skills then Roy, but they aren't especially special (ha ha ha Rodd Newhouse). Bottom line is that the Dallas secondary still sucks.
Asher - Indy: I hadn't heard about Carr not wanting to join Raiders. Isn't that the only place he'd be a starter almost by default? Did you say that you think his agent saying that is a smoke-screen? To what purpose. I'm confused, obviously - can you elaborate?
SportsNation Rodd Newhouse: Carr wants to be a starter. Yes, it looks like he would be the default starter in OAK, but he has not proven himself in HST, so if the Raiders sign him, and still draft a QB, there is open competition for the starting QB position. It makes sense on his part to puthat out there, becasue he wants to see what OAK's real intentions are with him if/whne he signs. This kind of stuff happens all the time by agents. Similar situation with Briggs/CHI/WAS.
Maybe Carr doesn't want to go from Houston to the only team in the league with a worse line than Houston because that's not conducive to ressurecting a career? Is that at all possible? And how is this like Lance Briggs' situation at all? One guy ia a Free Agent, the other has the Franchise tag, a tag of which the only purpose is to prevent movement. These situations are nothing alike.
Soren (LA): Of the Sophmore QBs (VY, Leinhardt, and Cutler), who do you expect to slump and who do you expect to break-out this year?
SportsNation Rodd Newhouse: I expect #7 to slump a bit, becasue he is changing systems and has to learn e new system all over again. Culter should improve the most simply as a product of the system, and VY will improve, but will have a few more ups and downs.
Yeah, that new offense is really going to make Leinart look like a rookie again. There's no way he will improve on his impressive rookie year. Regression, Charlie Frye style! Yes, Cutler will improve, but for god sakes stop citing the system as evidence for anything. Yes, Denver has a very efficient system. No, Cutler is not a better player than Leinart. Vince Young should improve also, but he was clearly the worst passer of the three last year. More evidence that the ROY award means nothing.
AP (Boynton Beach,FL): Rodd I'm not sold on San Diego even though they had the best record in football last year they lost a lot of good people on that coaching staff
SportsNation Rodd Newhouse: AP, I share your concern. This team went 14-2 last year and almost completely didmantled the staff. While I think this was the most talented team in the NFL last year, now that they have lost their head coach and both coordinators, I think a lot of the continuity has been lost, and I do not see them repeating as divisional champs in 2007.
Holy crap! The continuity is gone! How will Chris Dielman and LaDainian Tomlinson ever be able to look at each other again? How can they expect to be better than the Raiders and Mr. Continuity himself, Lane Kiffin? Time to throw in the towel!
Steve Chicago: do you think the Bears would do the trade with the skins? Wouldn't it look bad for the organization if they do the deal as proposed by Drew Rossenhause? It will look like the Bears are caving into Briggs' demands...what would stop any other player unhappy with their contract from doing the same?
SportsNation Rodd Newhouse: Looks are not always what the look like. Rosenhaus is NOT in control of anything. The Bears are letting him do the work they do not want to do, and that is make phone calls to any suitors who may want to talk. ALL GM's knw each other and talk behind the scenes, so what we hear and read in the media from agents and players is NOT what is really going on behind the scenes. So if the trade gets done, it is becase V. Cerrato and J. Angelo agreed to the parameters.
Rosenhaus is the only party benefiting from this deal. The Bears don't have a use for the No. 6 pick and need Lance Briggs a lot more than Washington does. Briggs is in danger of losing his good image because of Rosenhaus' negotiating techniques. Also, I'd like to see some defense of the statement "looks aren't always what they look like." What?
mango: is Drew Rossenhause good for the game or bad for the game?
SportsNation Rodd Newhouse: By the way, Rosenhaus is really a great guy to do contracts with. he knows his stuff, but plays to the media too much sometimes and makes teams agitated, but that is his job for his clients, and he is actually quite good at representing his clients' interest. But trust, he knows when to strike a deal
Rosenhaus is a good agent. However, the question was whether or not he is good for the game. Read the damn question!
Rudy (San Diego, Ca): Rodd who wins and loses games players or coaches? SD still has the best team on the field!
SportsNation Rodd Newhouse: Ture. Players win the games, but without coaches players are not put in position to win games or make plays. I still think they are the most talented, but therr is a new regime in town and that will have an effect.
Thank you Rudy from San Diego.
Obviously Norv Turner will find a way to keep the ball out of LaDainian Tomlinsons hands and keep Phillip Rivers from throwing also. That horrible failure of a coach! He's going to punt on 2nd down and shit isn't he!
Gotta love Scouts Inc!
Sunday, April 1, 2007
Turn Off ESPN presents an honest evaluation of JaMarcus Russell!
April Fools!!
Tom Martinez knows better. He knows that an arm does not make a quarterback. He knows that Tom Brady, his most famous protégé, won three Super Bowls because he respects the finer points of the job. And he knows that a quarterback should never, ever be asked to roll to one side of the field and then throw to the other. It's inefficient, mechanically unsound, such a scandalous misuse of momentum that a 10th-grade physics student would flag the play.
Yes, this is all quite accurate.
But Martinez couldn't help himself. JaMarcus Russell's arm is that seductive.
Once again, JaMarcus Russell's arm inspires the ignorance of all general football laws. That is a really special arm that's about to lead him to a Grossman-esque career.
When it came time to create a list of plays for Russell to run in front of dozens of NFL scouts and executives last month, Martinez went with the taboo as their grand finale. Russell rolled right, and his receiver broke that way, too, before switching direction.
"JaMarcus threw it 70 yards and completed it," Martinez said. "It was unbelievable, unbelievable. You could hear this "Ahhhh" coming from all the NFL people."
Read that quote again. Now I want you to tell me that Tom Martinez is not just another fanboy.
He wore a mischievous grin when he described the play, still exhilarated that Russell could do something so wrong so right. In his 32 years as a coach at the College of San Mateo and endless summers tutoring quarterbacks at football camps, Martinez has worked with some of the biggest names in the business -- John Elway, future Heisman winner Gino Torretta, USC's Rob Johnson and Brady, who attended his first Martinez camp at age 13 and still calls on him for help with his mechanics. New Englanders view Martinez as something of a wizard.
Torretta and Johnson. If Russell could only be that good...
But the coach has never seen anyone quite like the 21-year-old favorite to become the No. 1 pick in this month's NFL draft or done anything like the prep work that he performed for Russell.
Remember when Kyle Boller took a knee on the 50 yard line and consistnetly threw balls though the uprights, wowing everyone there with his arm strength. I mean, it seemed at the time that taking a player based solely on physical skills was foolish. Then we saw it all play out for Kyle Boller. So what's going to be the excuse when Russell is predictably average. He was in Oakland? Wrong, wrong, wrong. Scouts have learned that it is foolish to project a QB to the NFL based on the variable of Arm Strength. Yet, they seem to be unable to control their hormones every time a guy like Russell roles around. Who's paying these guys. Quotes like these should be grounds for dismissal so you don't continue to make the same mistakes year after year.
At Athletes' Performance, a specialized training camp in Tempe, Ariz., Martinez joined a team grooming Russell to take his place atop the draft. The chief competition, Brady Quinn of Notre Dame, is more polished and experienced than Russell, with four years as a college starter as opposed to two, yet he showed up in Tempe for some buffing of his own.
YES!! YES!! Four years of college compared to two. THIS IS WHAT MATTERS. This is it. Build on this point. This is the only reason that Brady Quinn will be a better NFL QB then Jamarcus Russell. Gwen Knapp, please oh please don't let throw this point out here without comparing Russell to other first round picks who started less than 30 games in college, and Quinn to other guys who started 45 plus. Just do it, I beg you!
Russell's size makes him both alluring and unnerving, creating doubts about his agility. He can probably absorb a hit very well, but will he lumber around in the pocket, unable to keep up with the speed of the NFL game? At 6-foot-6, he looks more like a tight end than a quarterback, and he reportedly carried as much as 265 pounds when he led LSU past Quinn's Irish in the Sugar Bowl. His fitness advisers in Arizona peeled close to 10 pounds off him, revealing a sleeker model. Martinez immediately went to work on Russell's feet.
GAAHHHHHH!!! NOOOO. Ah, the AGONY!!
I hate bad sportswriting.
In fact, he wanted to put all of Russell's presumed weaknesses on display. Agents create scripts for these events, and they are usually written to obscure areas of doubt. Martinez reasoned that the scouts and coaches would eventually, in private workouts, ask Russell to perform drills that emphasized perceived shortcomings. He wanted the script to answer the big questions, to assure the scouts that Russell had nothing to hide.
Did Martinez find the Denver Broncos' defense and put them out there against the Oakland Raiders offense plus Russell at QB and let JaMarucus strut his stuff. If he didn't do this, I'm really not sure how much of his weaknesses were really on display. JaMarcus' weakness is his inexperience, just like any other QB who has ever come out early. By the time he gets to a point where he makes up the gap between himself and Quinn's college experience, he's probably already going to be a backup somewhere in this league. He's never going to catch Quinn in experience unless Quinn sustaines a multiple year injury.
When you really think about it, making a guy with 2 years of college experience your NFL Quarterback is really no different than a fortune 500 corporation giving a high ranking managerial job to a person who left school half way through his/her college degree to "go pro". I mean, it very well could work out for you. But you try to tell me that the same person would NOT be a more efficent worker if he/she stayed and finished his/her degree.
Now tell me that Russell will be better than Quinn.
By coming out early, Russell already put the sentence on his NFL Career. I'm guessing sometime in his first 4 seasons, he will post a respectable set of numbers, and a bunch of talking heads will talk about how JaMarcus Russell has "arrived". The next year those numbers will completely regress and the only person the mediots won't blame for the regression is Russell himself.
I guess it can be debated if Russell goes number one overall whether or not it was worth it to come out. On one hand, he could have been a bona fide stud QB had he stayed in college another year and produced. On the other, he likely would not be the No. 1 pick in a draft that includes Brian Brohm. Then again, he shouldn't be the No. 1 pick in a draft that involves Quinn, but Brohm could be even better than Quinn.
The Raiders, current owners of the top pick, recently invited Martinez for what was reported to be an interview to become the team's quarterbacks coach. Martinez read it more as "a chance to exchange information," and he filled them in on what he had learned about Russell.
If the Raiders took the opinion of a guy with a clear interest in the matter with any more than a grain of salt, there is no hope for them as an organzation.
Russell's soft-spoken personality? "He's very quiet, very respectful," Martinez said, "He doesn't say much, but he's always taking things in. You can see him sizing things up and figuring people out."
Russell's background? Martinez believes that any NFL executive who meets with Russell's relatives will gain confidence in the decision to draft him. "He has a very grounded family," Martinez said. "They're all squared away. They're not buying into the fanfare around this."
Now, Gwen Knapp, you've discarded all analysis to turn this into a puff piece. Congratulations.
The other information he would like to impart would apply to any 21-year-old. Russell needs stability, continuity on the coaching staff. Martinez once heard Jim Plunkett describe a harrowing period in his career when the quarterbacks coach changed four times in four years. He doesn't want one of the most prodigious talents the game has ever seen to be squandered.
Because Jim Plunkett's career ended just so horribly unfufilled.
Martinez has seen all of Russell's flaws up close, and he still finds himself amazed. He says that Russell, fulfilling a typical scout's request, can stand flat-footed at the goal line and, without moving his body for the necessary torque, throw a ball 77 yards downfield.
That's nothing. Did I tell you about the time that Kyle Boller threw a ball really far from his knees. Russell ain't got nothing on Boller.
He can also sit at the opponent's 40-yard line and throw a ball through the uprights of the goalpost. Cal's Kyle Boller once asserted that he could throw the same pass from the 50 while on his knees. But Russell does it on his backside, relying entirely on his arm. Martinez fondly calls this maneuver "the butt throw."
Shit. This is the most unbelieveable paragraph in professional sportswriting. You are comparing (correctly) JaMarcus Russell to Kyle Boller in a puff piece. DO YOU HAVE ANY IDEA HOW RETARDED THAT IS! How can you make this comparision and NOT REALIZE THAT KYLE BOLLER IS A HORRIBLE QUARTERBACK!!
Martinez is a technical wizard, so he probably shouldn't be so impressed. But he can't help himself. Two weeks as JaMarcus Russell's coach turned him into a fanboy.
Okay, so in reality the article says "fan", not "fanboy". I just thought it rolled off the tounge better this way.
Tom Martinez knows better. He knows that an arm does not make a quarterback. He knows that Tom Brady, his most famous protégé, won three Super Bowls because he respects the finer points of the job. And he knows that a quarterback should never, ever be asked to roll to one side of the field and then throw to the other. It's inefficient, mechanically unsound, such a scandalous misuse of momentum that a 10th-grade physics student would flag the play.
Yes, this is all quite accurate.
But Martinez couldn't help himself. JaMarcus Russell's arm is that seductive.
Once again, JaMarcus Russell's arm inspires the ignorance of all general football laws. That is a really special arm that's about to lead him to a Grossman-esque career.
When it came time to create a list of plays for Russell to run in front of dozens of NFL scouts and executives last month, Martinez went with the taboo as their grand finale. Russell rolled right, and his receiver broke that way, too, before switching direction.
"JaMarcus threw it 70 yards and completed it," Martinez said. "It was unbelievable, unbelievable. You could hear this "Ahhhh" coming from all the NFL people."
Read that quote again. Now I want you to tell me that Tom Martinez is not just another fanboy.
He wore a mischievous grin when he described the play, still exhilarated that Russell could do something so wrong so right. In his 32 years as a coach at the College of San Mateo and endless summers tutoring quarterbacks at football camps, Martinez has worked with some of the biggest names in the business -- John Elway, future Heisman winner Gino Torretta, USC's Rob Johnson and Brady, who attended his first Martinez camp at age 13 and still calls on him for help with his mechanics. New Englanders view Martinez as something of a wizard.
Torretta and Johnson. If Russell could only be that good...
But the coach has never seen anyone quite like the 21-year-old favorite to become the No. 1 pick in this month's NFL draft or done anything like the prep work that he performed for Russell.
Remember when Kyle Boller took a knee on the 50 yard line and consistnetly threw balls though the uprights, wowing everyone there with his arm strength. I mean, it seemed at the time that taking a player based solely on physical skills was foolish. Then we saw it all play out for Kyle Boller. So what's going to be the excuse when Russell is predictably average. He was in Oakland? Wrong, wrong, wrong. Scouts have learned that it is foolish to project a QB to the NFL based on the variable of Arm Strength. Yet, they seem to be unable to control their hormones every time a guy like Russell roles around. Who's paying these guys. Quotes like these should be grounds for dismissal so you don't continue to make the same mistakes year after year.
At Athletes' Performance, a specialized training camp in Tempe, Ariz., Martinez joined a team grooming Russell to take his place atop the draft. The chief competition, Brady Quinn of Notre Dame, is more polished and experienced than Russell, with four years as a college starter as opposed to two, yet he showed up in Tempe for some buffing of his own.
YES!! YES!! Four years of college compared to two. THIS IS WHAT MATTERS. This is it. Build on this point. This is the only reason that Brady Quinn will be a better NFL QB then Jamarcus Russell. Gwen Knapp, please oh please don't let throw this point out here without comparing Russell to other first round picks who started less than 30 games in college, and Quinn to other guys who started 45 plus. Just do it, I beg you!
Russell's size makes him both alluring and unnerving, creating doubts about his agility. He can probably absorb a hit very well, but will he lumber around in the pocket, unable to keep up with the speed of the NFL game? At 6-foot-6, he looks more like a tight end than a quarterback, and he reportedly carried as much as 265 pounds when he led LSU past Quinn's Irish in the Sugar Bowl. His fitness advisers in Arizona peeled close to 10 pounds off him, revealing a sleeker model. Martinez immediately went to work on Russell's feet.
GAAHHHHHH!!! NOOOO. Ah, the AGONY!!
I hate bad sportswriting.
In fact, he wanted to put all of Russell's presumed weaknesses on display. Agents create scripts for these events, and they are usually written to obscure areas of doubt. Martinez reasoned that the scouts and coaches would eventually, in private workouts, ask Russell to perform drills that emphasized perceived shortcomings. He wanted the script to answer the big questions, to assure the scouts that Russell had nothing to hide.
Did Martinez find the Denver Broncos' defense and put them out there against the Oakland Raiders offense plus Russell at QB and let JaMarucus strut his stuff. If he didn't do this, I'm really not sure how much of his weaknesses were really on display. JaMarcus' weakness is his inexperience, just like any other QB who has ever come out early. By the time he gets to a point where he makes up the gap between himself and Quinn's college experience, he's probably already going to be a backup somewhere in this league. He's never going to catch Quinn in experience unless Quinn sustaines a multiple year injury.
When you really think about it, making a guy with 2 years of college experience your NFL Quarterback is really no different than a fortune 500 corporation giving a high ranking managerial job to a person who left school half way through his/her college degree to "go pro". I mean, it very well could work out for you. But you try to tell me that the same person would NOT be a more efficent worker if he/she stayed and finished his/her degree.
Now tell me that Russell will be better than Quinn.
By coming out early, Russell already put the sentence on his NFL Career. I'm guessing sometime in his first 4 seasons, he will post a respectable set of numbers, and a bunch of talking heads will talk about how JaMarcus Russell has "arrived". The next year those numbers will completely regress and the only person the mediots won't blame for the regression is Russell himself.
I guess it can be debated if Russell goes number one overall whether or not it was worth it to come out. On one hand, he could have been a bona fide stud QB had he stayed in college another year and produced. On the other, he likely would not be the No. 1 pick in a draft that includes Brian Brohm. Then again, he shouldn't be the No. 1 pick in a draft that involves Quinn, but Brohm could be even better than Quinn.
The Raiders, current owners of the top pick, recently invited Martinez for what was reported to be an interview to become the team's quarterbacks coach. Martinez read it more as "a chance to exchange information," and he filled them in on what he had learned about Russell.
If the Raiders took the opinion of a guy with a clear interest in the matter with any more than a grain of salt, there is no hope for them as an organzation.
Russell's soft-spoken personality? "He's very quiet, very respectful," Martinez said, "He doesn't say much, but he's always taking things in. You can see him sizing things up and figuring people out."
Russell's background? Martinez believes that any NFL executive who meets with Russell's relatives will gain confidence in the decision to draft him. "He has a very grounded family," Martinez said. "They're all squared away. They're not buying into the fanfare around this."
Now, Gwen Knapp, you've discarded all analysis to turn this into a puff piece. Congratulations.
The other information he would like to impart would apply to any 21-year-old. Russell needs stability, continuity on the coaching staff. Martinez once heard Jim Plunkett describe a harrowing period in his career when the quarterbacks coach changed four times in four years. He doesn't want one of the most prodigious talents the game has ever seen to be squandered.
Because Jim Plunkett's career ended just so horribly unfufilled.
Martinez has seen all of Russell's flaws up close, and he still finds himself amazed. He says that Russell, fulfilling a typical scout's request, can stand flat-footed at the goal line and, without moving his body for the necessary torque, throw a ball 77 yards downfield.
That's nothing. Did I tell you about the time that Kyle Boller threw a ball really far from his knees. Russell ain't got nothing on Boller.
He can also sit at the opponent's 40-yard line and throw a ball through the uprights of the goalpost. Cal's Kyle Boller once asserted that he could throw the same pass from the 50 while on his knees. But Russell does it on his backside, relying entirely on his arm. Martinez fondly calls this maneuver "the butt throw."
Shit. This is the most unbelieveable paragraph in professional sportswriting. You are comparing (correctly) JaMarcus Russell to Kyle Boller in a puff piece. DO YOU HAVE ANY IDEA HOW RETARDED THAT IS! How can you make this comparision and NOT REALIZE THAT KYLE BOLLER IS A HORRIBLE QUARTERBACK!!
Martinez is a technical wizard, so he probably shouldn't be so impressed. But he can't help himself. Two weeks as JaMarcus Russell's coach turned him into a fanboy.
Okay, so in reality the article says "fan", not "fanboy". I just thought it rolled off the tounge better this way.
Tuesday, March 20, 2007
It's Draft Season Everybody!
This time, Chris Low goes down on Jamarcus Russell.
"I've always believed that you measure a quarterback on his bad days, not his good days," said Jimbo Fisher
You're going to get some real shitty numbers if you do that, Jimbo.
"When you're not having your best day, how do you respond? Can you stay into it and manage the game? JaMarcus knew he was a great player with great ability -- and he also knew, if something went wrong or if he messed something up, that he would usually get another chance.
The enormity of it all has yet to sink in, and those who've known him since he was old enough to grip a football aren't a bit surprised.
But, hey, that's vintage JaMarcus Russell.
I, for one, think it's great that Chris Low has such a special, special relationship with JaMarcus Russell. I am sure that Mr. Low will abuse his special relationship to find a fitting definition to the term "vintage JaMarcus Russell" which he will share with us in this piece. I am not completely wasting my time by reading this because this is not going to be just another JaMarcus Russell puff piece.
Ready?
Down two touchdowns or up two touchdowns, he's the same quarterback. Sitting in the pocket with all kinds of time or throwing with guys hanging all over him, he is convinced that his next play will be his best play. Soaking up a record-setting day or suffering through a forgettable day, he still wants the ball at the end.
Basically he does...what every other draft eligible QB does. Good, because for a second there..."I've always believed that you measure a quarterback on his bad days, not his good days," said Jimbo Fisher
You're going to get some real shitty numbers if you do that, Jimbo.
"When you're not having your best day, how do you respond? Can you stay into it and manage the game? JaMarcus knew he was a great player with great ability -- and he also knew, if something went wrong or if he messed something up, that he would usually get another chance.
"If he got that ball at the end of the game, he was going to beat your tail -- and he knew it."
Most QBs strive to lock that game up before that last drive so that they can take a knee. But not JaMarcus Russell. He's got a method already.
Similarly, Russell doesn't flinch at the thought of being the No. 1 overall pick in April's NFL draft. The Oakland Raiders are eyeing him closely with that first selection. Russell has been in Arizona training with some of the best receivers in the draft, including former teammate Dwyane Bowe, Tennessee's Robert Meachem and Southern Cal's Dwayne Jarrett.
I have a sinking feeling that the Raiders no longer eye anyone closely. Because if they did, they probably wouldn't be looking at JaMarcus Russell. But I didn't know he was working out in Arizona with a bunch of other draft prospects! This changes everything!
His take on the whole process?
"I'm just going to chill," said Russell, whose cool demeanor has been mistaken for nonchalance more than a few times during his career.
This is the single greatest piece of information I have ever read.
Never a big talker, Russell really doesn't need to. His teammates say there is a quiet confidence about him that is infectious.
"You just learn to trust that he's going to make big plays," said Bowe, who jokes that his hands are still swollen from catching 95 mph fastballs from the 6-foot-5, 265-pound Russell. "He never talked a whole lot about it. He just went out there and did it. That's why so many respected him. When he's out there, there's no doubt in your mind that we were going to win the game."
You play for LSU. You are going to win the game most of the time because you are almost always the best team on the field. JaMarcus Russell was a part of this equation, but not the entire reason for your success.
Also, way to sneak in a comment about how great his arm is, Chris Low. You'd thought you'd slide that one by us. You dog.
Russell, 25-4 as a starter at LSU, engineered eight comeback victories in the fourth quarter during his career. He capped a scintillating close to the 2006 season by outplaying Brady Quinn and passing for a career-high 332 yards in a 41-14 drubbing of Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl.
1) That was one game. I don't care if it was the Sugar Bowl. One game out of 29 starts (remember this figure, I promise to explain it's significance).
2) Notre Dame's defense blew in 2006. LSU's defense was dominant. JaMarcus Russell should have had the better game. It was to be expected. If Quinn had had the better game, there would have been an upset and JaMarcus Russell would be a 4th round pick right now.
3) The Sugar Bowl was nothing if not a home game for LSU
4) 41-14 is how the game ended, but does not tell the whole story. It was a one TD game at half, tied late in the first half.
The Sugar Bowl is not a great argument as to why JaMarcus Russell should be the first pick in April's draft.
Suddenly, Russell was the most coveted quarterback out there, and the questions about his decision-making and his tendency to rely on his big right arm had been reduced to a murmur.
"What a great QB that Russell is. Look at how he manipulates Terrail Lambert to fall down and Chiedum Ndukwe to completely forget his assignment." Look, he makes one read and throws a touchdown. What decision making! A lot of guys would have passed up that easy touchdown, but not this guy!"
"It's always been my dream to go high in the draft. But to be the first pick in the draft, that's crazy. I still won't believe it until it happens."
You and me both, JaMarcus. You and me both.
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