Well I'm shocked the Giants won it all

and after you see this quote by the Architect if their run, you will be too

"What difference does it make what we gave up?" Accorsi continued. "You better be right about the QB, but if you are, you can't overpay for a great QB and we think he's going to be a great QB. What would you give up for Elway? What would you give for Montana or Unitas? Just like you can't overpay a great player. Can you overpay for Mays or DiMaggio? That's all fodder."

In case you missed it, he said:

"What difference does it make what we gave up?"

"WHAT DIFFERENCE DOES IT MAKE WHAT WE GAVE UP?"

"WHAT DIFFERENCE DOES IT MAKE WHAT WE GAVE UP?"


The article goes on to agree with Accorsi and attribute great foresight to him just because what is by all accounts a terrible move did not cause them to not win the Superbowl. Of course forgetting that Eli's not even mediocore regular season did rather little to get them there, and that within such a small sample size as ONE GAME, fluke plays tend to have more of an effect on outcomes (flukes such as a renowned special teamer jumping 3 feet off the ground and catching a football, in coverage, with his helmet.)

Just a reminder, this is a former GM. He made a career of being the man paid large sums of money to care about what they do and do not give up. You might say that it was his "job". As you might have noticed, he goes onto say "you can't overpay for a good player". Mike Ditka approves! Notice that I'm not blaming Ricky Williams for the Saints making the playoffs once in his three years, and going 3-13 in his first year, and Ditka getting fired. I'm just saying that trading your entire 53-man roster for somebody is bad. I don't care if he's the love child of John Elway and Barry Sanders, coached/trained by Dick Butkus and Joe Montana. Vincent "Buddy" Elway-Sanders couldn't play every position on the field could he? YOU HAVE A SALARY CAP AND A LIMITED SUPPLY OF GOOD PLAYERS. You have a budget constraint. You can not give up everything for one player.

More importantly, you might have noticed that Eli isn't that good. He's actually been kind of bad, if you just look at the numbers. His career QB rating is 73.4, which would be good for 26th this season, right behind--you guessed it--Eli Manning. His career completion percentage, 54.7 puts him squarely between Grossman and Cleo Lemon, at 31 for quarterbacks qualifying this year.

Now, I know this isn't the be-all end-all of statistical analyses, but surely if you could have say Philip Rivers, an assload of draft picks and his 86.6 career rating and 60.8%, you'd at least have to think about it. Obviously, Rivers has a better offense, and anything could happen in the future. Plus, he looks weird when he throws. HOWEVER, he is by all indicators available to us, a better quarterback, and a better quarterback that came with an absolute assload of draft picks mind you.

I mean for heaven's sake, one such draft pick ended up being Shawne Merriman. Granted evaluating the acquisition of a draft PICK ex post facto ignores that there is some uncertainty involved in the actual picking. However, this is Shawne Merriman. He was a high 1st round pick. He was the very same roid-addled giganteur that won Rookie of the Year. How's that for instant impact? An almost certainly better quarterback, a freakishly good defender, and two more draft picks for Eli Manning. If that's not over paying, then I don't know what is.

[Edited to fix author's complete ignorance of Ernie Accorsi.]

Mel Kiper Schools Todd McShay

Mel Kiper is owning Todd McShay right now on Sportscenters NFL Draft Squareoff. Among his points:

-McShay puts too much value on big game arguments. Troy Smith and Chris Leak were wonderful in big games, but are bad prospects.

-Kiper has Quinn 5 on his board, McShay has him at 7. Kiper is trying to figure our how the fuck you can possibly feel the 7th guy on your board is overvalued. Kiper says that if McShay really thought Quinn was overvalued, he'd have him at 20-25. McShay actually claims that hes compensating for where Brady Quinn is going to be drafted. On his own personal draft board. I'm now convinced that one of the reasons he sucks so much is that he doesn't actually know what his job is.

-Per Kiper, McShay is too worried about the accuracy issues. They happen.

-The money due to each player is not an argument. You are trying to draft the best player. Worry about the money later.

This is why I love Mel Kiper. Look, the guy has Russell overrated, like a lot of other people. But rather than try to conform to conventional logic, like McShay, if he knew that Russell was bound to be the next Grossman--he'd put him down at 20-25. Because he's whats known as an "honorable draft analyst".

A Bonus Article Tonight for all those Loyal Readers

All 4 of ya.

We are probably going to be doing nothing but draft stuff for the next two weeks in this here space because...well, nobody is going to write anything about anything in football but the draft between now and then.

Anyway, I've noticed that most scouts will overvalue a players' physical tools, especially at the wide receiver position, and then when said player fails to meet expectations they write article about how tough it is to pinpoint receivers.

Well, the truth of the matter is, it's not all that hard. You've just got to look for the guys with the most college experience. Receiver is a very mental position and you want a guy who is aware of what is going on around him playing for you. So if you are going to get behind a WR prospect, get behind a guy like Dwayne Bowe, a highly rated 4 year player (3 year starter) at LSU. You'll be right more often than this guy.

But he will learn his lesson eventually. At least, thats what I thought until I read this article. Now I'm convinced he won't ever learn why he sucks at scouting prospects.

You need to be an INsider to access it. Sorry.

Productive NFL wide receivers come in many different sizes, shapes and speeds. Just take a look at the wide receivers who led the NFL in catches last season. Sure, Houston's Andre Johnson fits the mold as the league leader with 103 receptions. After all, the former No. 3 overall pick (2003) checks in at 6-foot-3 and 219 pounds with 4.4 speed. But how do you explain Mike Furrey, a former undrafted free agent in 2000, hauling in the second-most passes (98) in 2006?

Furrey plays the slot receiver in Mike Martz' offense.

Seriously Todd, no position in football is more affected by what their team is doing around them than the WR position. You probably should know this considering the career path you've chosen.

Andre Johnson caught a bunch O hitches from David Carr. That type of offense is only successful if you turn those hitches into TD's sometimes.

Other productive NFL receivers who slipped in recent drafts include Carolina's Steve Smith (third round, 2001), Seattle's Deion Branch (second round, 2002), Arizona's Anquan Boldin (second round, 2003), the N.Y. Jets' Jerricho Cotchery (fourth round, 2004) and New Orleans' Marques Colston (seventh round, 2006). Meanwhile, David Terrell (2001), Ashley Lelie (2002), Charles Rogers (2003) and Reggie Williams (2004) all looked the part as high draft picks coming out of college but haven't come close to matching production for investment.

Steve Smith, 2 years CC + 2 years at Utah, all starting
Deion Branch, 4 years at Louisville
Anquan Boldin, 4 years at Flordia State (correct me if I'm wrong)
Marques Colston, 4 year starter at Hofstra (also a really lucky find)
Jerrico Cotchery, 3 year starter at NC State, additional PT as a Freshman

David Terrell, 2 1/2 year starter
Ashley Lelie, 3 year starter
Charles Rogers, 3 year starter
Reggie Williams, 2 1/2 year starter

Have you learned anything from this trend? I'm guessing not. Okay then, moving on.

The bottom line is that evaluating wide receiver talent from the college ranks has become maddening for NFL front offices. In my estimation, there are a couple reasons for this. First off, I would argue that quarterback is the only position with more outside factors to skew collegiate production. Secondly, the ability to "separate" is the most important skill for a wide receiver. Unfortunately, it also can be the trickiest to properly evaluate.

Todd McShay actually thinks that QB production is the most skewed position on the entire field. He actually wrote this paragraph. This is hilarious. The easist position where a convienient FORMULA exists to project success to the NFL level is the position that Todd McShay believes is the one that gets skewed the most.

Did I read that correctly?

Secondly, the ability to seperate is not really all that meaningful of a quality for a receiver. The fact that you value it so much completely explains why you can't evaluate them properly. I would think the two biggest sticking points for grading a reciever are:

1) How well he plays the ball (the catch)
2) How well he gets yards after the catch (after the catch)

I would say that MOST receivers are relatively identical in the way they seperate. This probably explains why you can't grade a difference accurately. It's also a huge red flag that you are doing this whole scouting thing improperly, but I'm not one to tell you how to do your job.

Or am I?

While catching the ball is the ultimate goal, a receiver with great hands is rendered useless if he can't get open. It's not difficult to evaluate a receiver's hands, top-end speed and leaping ability. The challenge when evaluating a wide receiver's separation skills is to sift through those potentially deceptive variables, which include his supporting cast, the offensive system he plays in and the types of defensive coverage and level of competition he faces.

It's good that its not that hard to evaluate hands, speed, and leaping ability, because those things really don't matter. I mean, you don't want to draft a guy who drops the ball a lot, but those guys stick out like sore thumbs even at the Collegiate level.

Also, why would supporting cast, offensive system, or coverage (well, I can sort of see coverage) have anything to do with how well a guy seperates. You still haven't even told us why getting seperation is important. You have no credibility whatsoever.

Although there's no exact formula that makes up a receiver's ability to separate, here's a look at some of the key ingredients:

There's probably no formula because it doesn't really matter. Let me tell you how the passing game works. The defense, if in a zone, rolls coverage to where most receivers are. Not all receivers are going to seperate on any given play. The QB reads the defense and hits the open guy.

So, seperation, as you call it, is really just the ability to run.

Wonderful. I can see how someone would think that a receiver is defined by his ability to run while playing football. But lets see some of Todd McShay's fancy terms for this skill:

1. Initial burst
2. Recognition/instincts
3. Change-of-direction skills
4. Competitiveness

Initial burst, you mean running Todd?

I personally think recognition and insticts are the most important trait for a successful receiver. Hey kiddies, you know how you develop recognition and insticts? Stay in school. Play your senior year. Learn something. College is fun. Enjoy it. Become a better NFL prospect in the process.

Change of direction skills is completely useless and arbitrary. Unless you are talking about run after catch skills. Then its just arbitrary, but can have a conceivable use.

Competitveness is not a possible criteria to get open. It just isn't.

Jerry Rice will forever be the ultimate example of this attribute. A relentless approach to the craft -- both in practice and in games -- allowed Rice to overcome below-average speed throughout his brilliant 20-year career.

Joe Montana, Steve Young, and Rich Gannon may have had something to do with this too Todd.

This is a nice gritty article from Todd McShay with great upside and a high ceiling to allow for a lot of potential growth. What it's missing in facts and analysis (everything), it makes up for with initial burst and competitiveness.

Rodd Newhouse Chat

Sometimes it's just not fair for an NFL personel guy to have to field questions from the bottom third of American society, but it helps to know what you are talking about.

I love Scouts Inc!

Brandon(Terre Haute): Hey Rodd, is Micheal Turner going to go anywhere and what will it take to get him? Where will David Carr end up?

SportsNation Rodd Newhouse: Brandon, it is going to take a lot to get MT. This guy can play! That is why the Chargers put the high tender on him. He gives great assurances to a team that is built on running the football. As for Carr, I think his agent is putting up smoke screens byt saying Carr does not want to land in OAK. Thereare no guarantees the Raiders are taking a QB number one, but if they do, Carr still sees himself as a starter and wants a chance to compete as a backup somewhere like CLV, or CAR

First of all, Brandon is the first person to actually formulate a question that can be both read and answered. I'm sure he bothered to ask an NFL insider what the value of Michael Turner was so he could receive an answer like, "a lot". There is no possible way that he already knew that before asking the question. Also Rodd, the question was not "Can you say some nice things about Michael Turner?", it was "How much will it cost to get him?"

At least he answered the David Carr question but not before throwing out the gem, "Carr sees himself as a starter and wants a chance to compete as a backup somewhere..." Marvelous.

Ryan, Ohio: What do you think of the Jamal Lewis signing by the Browns?

SportsNation Rodd Newhouse: J. Lew is still a solid running back. Even if the Browns get AP at the #3 spot, I see that as a win for the Browns. A solid veteran RB to compliment a young fresh player who will have a great mentor to learn from on the field. (not off the field) ha ha ha.

Hilarious.

Jamal Lewis defense adjusted points above replacement (DPAR) over the last 5 years:

2006 3.8
2005 -12.9(!)
2004 17.3
2003 30.4
2002 16.0

He hasn't been above league average since 2004. In fact, he hasn't even been the best RB on his own team since 2004. So, Newhouse is right, Adrian Peterson will be a great pick, because it accelerates Jamal Lewis' departure, which should win the Browns a few games.

How pathethic is Jamal Lewis going to be when he doesn't get to go up against the Cleveland defense anymore?

Shawn Peninsula, OH: Do you think the Browns should go after Trent Green, David Carr, or do you think that they should let Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson battle for the starting QB.

SportsNation Rodd Newhouse: I personally feel as though Charlie Frye can and will be a good QB in the NFL. the problem is that he is on a bad football team right now. He is being asked to do too much. Carr and/or Green would be able to step in and help Frye right away becuase they both have experience and need a fresh new start. Anderson is just merely a backup at best.

What are you basing this Charlie Frye support on?

Charlie Frye DPAR:

2006 -17.5
2005 -9.3

The numbers say Frye regessed from his rookie year. I wouldn't worry too much about that though since Frye is nowhere near replacement level and shouldn't even be on an NFL roster.

Charlie Frye is a perfect example of how the term "sleeper" is an oxymoron. Players in the draft who get the sleeper tag always go two rounds before they should (see: Gocong, Chris) and rarely justify their draft status. A sleeper is supposed to indicate a potential draft day steal, but in reality just creates a sizable market for the player. Thus, there really can't be any sleepers.

Carr or Green would both be significant upgrades. Green's the better of the two, but also has no future beyond a year or two. Which is good, since the Browns can just draft Brady Quinn and plan on being a perenial playoff contender. But then there's the whole Jamal Lewis issue...it must really suck to be a Browns fan. USC has a better offensive backfield.

Amer (San Jose, ca): Hey Rodd, Where will Lance Briggs play in 2007?

SportsNation Rodd Newhouse: ABSOLUTELY! You play for almost 700k last year, and you can't play for 400k per WEEK this year. Gime a break. His bark is loud, but make no mistake about it, whether traded or withthe Bears, he will be in ubiform and collecting his checks. He may sit a few weeks if still with the bears, but he will not sit more than a month, becasue hw only hurts himself by then.

Ok, first of all the question was WHERE Lance Briggs will play, not if he will at all. That said, Rodd's probably stumbled upon the right answer here (sort of since he only kind of picks a position). Anyway, the intelligent response would be that Briggs has little leverage. Anyone with experience in dealing with players knows that Briggs' threat to sit out the first ten games of 2007 is without substance. Outside of leaving all that money on the table, who's going to pay a guy whos career regressed a bit because he stayed away from football for 2 1/2 months of one of the seasons in the prime of his career? Briggs would be putting the death sentence on his own career. In the months following the draft, you will see Briggs cut a deal with the Bears to sign the tender in exchange for a (non binding) promise to not use the tag on him next year. Sorry you had to come all the way out here to get that answer when Rodd Newhouse could have just as easily told you that himself, had he read the question properly.

Also, why would Briggs sit out a month and then return? That makes no fucking sense.

Jim, VA: Rodd, talk about smoke screens. What's this I hear about the Skins bringing in JaMarcus Russell in for a 'look.' A look at what? Don't have they have a good young QB in Campbell who I might add Gibbs traded a 2/3 and a 3 in the following year to Denver to move up to get this guy. NFL Execs and GM can't take them serious to draft Russell. Can they?

SportsNation Rodd Newhouse: You never know in this League. I have said before, once the 1st pick goes, all bets are off, and what once was a smoke screen is now a reality. Teams make trades and find themselves in situtions they had only dreamed of and just want to be prepared. While not likely, there is a possibility that this could happen.

What? I'm not even sure I follow his train of thought. First of all, it's NOT possible that JaMarcus Russell will be a Redskin. So you are wrong, Rodd Newhouse. Secondly, I'd like you to explain to us why all bets are off after the first pick. Is this your clever way of saying if the Raiders take Quinn #1 overall, any team might take Russell because of his oozing upside? Why would JaMarcus Russell falling to No. 6 be a situation that the Redskins dreamed of? In fact, why would it change anything they were planning to do. Maybe they could get better value trading out of the pick, but still this whole debate is stupid.

wolfbait, san diego: dallas had 3 noteworthy signings this offseason: leonard davis, brad johnson and ken hamlin. i think davis will thrive, especially as a G where his size will help and his lack of speed won't hurt. johnson is ok and hopefully will be a mentor that doesn't ever see the field. but hamlin is a FS known less for coverage and more for being a hard-hitter that can align the rest of the defense. so my question(s) is: how well do you see him solving dallas' deep coverage problems? can he help roy williams and the CB's back there enough? is pat watkins a guy that can be the FS of the future? thanks much!

SportsNation Rodd Newhouse: hamlin will help the Boys' secondary by playing FS. While he is kown for his hard hitting, he acutally can cover with good range. Williams should move to SS becasue he has shown he cannot cover a wet paper bag. he will be better served closer to the LOS. Watkins only started last year by default and is a backup. The Boys' still need help oposite T Newman. A. Henry is NOT a CB. his best position is as a backup safety, becasue he lacks the speed to cover MvM.

Roy Williams was a classic case of a team not looking at a progressing trend before investing. At the time Roy Williams was drafted, the skill set of an enforcing safety was in high demand accross the league. Had Jerry Jones done a little foward thinking research, he might have noticed that offenses were trending towards faster TEs. Now, 5 years later, it's clear that Roy Williams' skill set makes him a big liability in coverage. Roy Williams is nothing more than a below average safety. If he was picked ten years before he was, he would have been a perrenial pro bowler. Actually, he is a perennial pro bowler, but that's only because the people who vote for pro bowlers are ignorant. Adrian Wilson is a better safety completely wasted than Roy Williams. He would have been a legit pro bowler in the 1990's.

The best personell guys stay ahead of the curve. Jerry Jones is not one of the best personel guys.

The interesting thing is that Hamlin may suffer from the same problems that Williams did. He's got better cover skills then Roy, but they aren't especially special (ha ha ha Rodd Newhouse). Bottom line is that the Dallas secondary still sucks.

Asher - Indy: I hadn't heard about Carr not wanting to join Raiders. Isn't that the only place he'd be a starter almost by default? Did you say that you think his agent saying that is a smoke-screen? To what purpose. I'm confused, obviously - can you elaborate?

SportsNation Rodd Newhouse: Carr wants to be a starter. Yes, it looks like he would be the default starter in OAK, but he has not proven himself in HST, so if the Raiders sign him, and still draft a QB, there is open competition for the starting QB position. It makes sense on his part to puthat out there, becasue he wants to see what OAK's real intentions are with him if/whne he signs. This kind of stuff happens all the time by agents. Similar situation with Briggs/CHI/WAS.

Maybe Carr doesn't want to go from Houston to the only team in the league with a worse line than Houston because that's not conducive to ressurecting a career? Is that at all possible? And how is this like Lance Briggs' situation at all? One guy ia a Free Agent, the other has the Franchise tag, a tag of which the only purpose is to prevent movement. These situations are nothing alike.

Soren (LA): Of the Sophmore QBs (VY, Leinhardt, and Cutler), who do you expect to slump and who do you expect to break-out this year?

SportsNation Rodd Newhouse: I expect #7 to slump a bit, becasue he is changing systems and has to learn e new system all over again. Culter should improve the most simply as a product of the system, and VY will improve, but will have a few more ups and downs.

Yeah, that new offense is really going to make Leinart look like a rookie again. There's no way he will improve on his impressive rookie year. Regression, Charlie Frye style! Yes, Cutler will improve, but for god sakes stop citing the system as evidence for anything. Yes, Denver has a very efficient system. No, Cutler is not a better player than Leinart. Vince Young should improve also, but he was clearly the worst passer of the three last year. More evidence that the ROY award means nothing.

AP (Boynton Beach,FL): Rodd I'm not sold on San Diego even though they had the best record in football last year they lost a lot of good people on that coaching staff

SportsNation Rodd Newhouse: AP, I share your concern. This team went 14-2 last year and almost completely didmantled the staff. While I think this was the most talented team in the NFL last year, now that they have lost their head coach and both coordinators, I think a lot of the continuity has been lost, and I do not see them repeating as divisional champs in 2007.

Holy crap! The continuity is gone! How will Chris Dielman and LaDainian Tomlinson ever be able to look at each other again? How can they expect to be better than the Raiders and Mr. Continuity himself, Lane Kiffin? Time to throw in the towel!

Steve Chicago: do you think the Bears would do the trade with the skins? Wouldn't it look bad for the organization if they do the deal as proposed by Drew Rossenhause? It will look like the Bears are caving into Briggs' demands...what would stop any other player unhappy with their contract from doing the same?

SportsNation Rodd Newhouse: Looks are not always what the look like. Rosenhaus is NOT in control of anything. The Bears are letting him do the work they do not want to do, and that is make phone calls to any suitors who may want to talk. ALL GM's knw each other and talk behind the scenes, so what we hear and read in the media from agents and players is NOT what is really going on behind the scenes. So if the trade gets done, it is becase V. Cerrato and J. Angelo agreed to the parameters.

Rosenhaus is the only party benefiting from this deal. The Bears don't have a use for the No. 6 pick and need Lance Briggs a lot more than Washington does. Briggs is in danger of losing his good image because of Rosenhaus' negotiating techniques. Also, I'd like to see some defense of the statement "looks aren't always what they look like." What?

mango: is Drew Rossenhause good for the game or bad for the game?

SportsNation Rodd Newhouse: By the way, Rosenhaus is really a great guy to do contracts with. he knows his stuff, but plays to the media too much sometimes and makes teams agitated, but that is his job for his clients, and he is actually quite good at representing his clients' interest. But trust, he knows when to strike a deal

Rosenhaus is a good agent. However, the question was whether or not he is good for the game. Read the damn question!

Rudy (San Diego, Ca): Rodd who wins and loses games players or coaches? SD still has the best team on the field!

SportsNation Rodd Newhouse: Ture. Players win the games, but without coaches players are not put in position to win games or make plays. I still think they are the most talented, but therr is a new regime in town and that will have an effect.

Thank you Rudy from San Diego.

Obviously Norv Turner will find a way to keep the ball out of LaDainian Tomlinsons hands and keep Phillip Rivers from throwing also. That horrible failure of a coach! He's going to punt on 2nd down and shit isn't he!

Gotta love Scouts Inc!