Thought it wouldn't get any worse than "Touch 'em All"?

You thought wrong.

Behold, the ESPNU Championship Series.

At times like this, I can't help but wonder how the person responsible pitched this:

So, the BCS sucks. How dare they decide who's better than whom in order to set up the national championship game? Fuck. It really burns me up when people think they can know who would win in a game that never happened.

So anyway, I got this idea. We take the top 10 teams in the BCS, since they know who's better than whom. Then we put them into this playoff bracket, and hold a playoff. What? Nah, there won't be any actual games. We're ESPN though, we think we can know who would win in these games that never happen. So basically, we decide these match-ups that mean nothing and then predict the outcomes, except we're never wrong, because they never happen.

"Great idea! We'll make it a yearly feature."

Great season for the NFL

After decades of finishing right at .500, the NFL is finally expected to right the ship and post a winning record.....against itself. Now I know that not every jackass columnist working at ESPN has taken a statistics or economics course, but evidently Jeffri Chadiha is unaware of the concept of a zero-sum game. Namely, both teams can't win.

Of course, this wouldn't matter if he actually looked at the teams' respective schedules and predicted who will win a given game. This approach would be called "analysis". Mr. Chadiha, instead, glanced at the teams' records at the midway point and decided that a good team will win x games, a bad team will win y games, no one will go winless, the Vikings will magically finish 7-9, and somehow the Raiders and Chiefs will combine for 8 wins in the second half. This is known as the "blind-folded two-year-old throwing darts at a number line" approach, or the "pulling numbers out of his ass" approach. Take a minute to understand the magnitude of this. He's getting paid to analyze teams and have some idea of who's more likely to win. He isn't just being dumb, he's not even doing his job.

However, before we let the issue drop, I thought I'd highlight some of the true gems embedded in this article:

The Panthers:
"This offense has second-half disaster written all over it.
Prediction: 7-9."
A 7-9 disaster.

The Niners:
"Surprise: Rookie linebacker Patrick Willis leads the NFL in tackles. After that, there really hasn't been much to smile about around the 49ers.
Disappointment: What happened to their running game? Frank Gore made the Pro Bowl last season. This year he has 435 yards at midseason.
Prediction: 6-10."
Anyone who thinks the Niners will DOUBLE their first half wins (2) with 4 in the second, raise your hand. Really? No one? Even though the wins they've got so far have been amazingly fluky?

Anyone think Minnesota will go .500 the rest of the way?

Think the NFC East will combine for 41 wins? That's more than 10 per team, and 20 more than they have now. A combined 10 games against division opponents, means 5 wins, assuming no ties. So they have to get 15 wins. Of the remaining 19 games, 15 are against opponents that Chadiha himself picked to go .500 or better the rest of the way (2 against the Pats).

Suddenly it becomes obvious how the NFL ended up with a winning record. Everybody's a winner.

A tip of the TurnOffESPN chapeau to FireJoeMorgan.com, the statistically-minded, funny, and utterly classy baseball blog that broke this story.

Turn Off ESPN Readers, there's someone I'd like you to meet. You'll be working with him a lot.

Pete Prisco!

Matt's welcome, but Texans mistakenly take keys from Carr

Wow. We're not even to the article and Prisco is already wrong.

This may be unprecidented, even for him!

Let me just say that I am a huge Matt Schaub guy. I think he has the tools to be a big-time NFL passer.

Let me just say that I'm really not a huge Pete Prisco guy. I do like that he keeps his opinions seperate from outside influence. It's a remarkable quality, espicially considering today's style of generic sportswriting. However, the outcome is that in most cases, what Prisco thinks ends up being really, really bizarre. I haven't even read the article beyond this point yet, and I can guarentee you this will be a prime example.

Okay Pete, I'm ready for ya.

But I think the Houston Texans are making a mistake by giving up on David Carr.

I know. I read the title of the article.

The Texans agreed to trade a pair of second-round picks to the Atlanta Falcons and swap first-round spots this year -- eight to 10 -- for Schaub, a player many personnel people think can be a 10-year starter in the league.

The deal is contingent on Schaub agreeing to a new deal with the Texans before being traded.

I have to wonder if Schaub, a third-year player, is really a better option than Carr?

I have to wonder right up front if you've ever seen David Carr play. The best pro-Carr argument is that he hasn't been given a chance. This isn't entirely false, as Carr has been under impossible duress since he came into this league. But some of that duress is on Carr.

David Carr's DPARs
2006-10.4
2005-(-)17.0(!)
2004-27.5
2003-3.7
2002-(-)68.2(!)

Year's above league average in DVOA=0. His 2004 was ever so close (kinda reminds me of JP Losman's 2006), but that regression in 2005 cannot(!!) be completely pinned on his teammates. Certainly it wasn't all him, but the best explination is that he had a lucky 2004 season, and a real unlucky 2005 season. But he also regressed between those years.

Plus the QB Projection System doesn't like him. He's got the potential to be a very efficient veteran caretaker, but that's about it.

Or are the Texans guilty of thinking that somebody outside the organization is better than the incumbent? Have they fallen for the allure of something new just for the sake of having something different when the reality is, they're just missing the good points about the person they have?

I think that's the case.

How DARE they think that they could improve upon DAVID CARR. It's common speculation in league circles that David Carr is, in fact, the messiah! He could show us how dominant of a player he is ANY year now!@#$ How can the Texans pass on this kind of potential!!!111!!11one.

Stupid team. They've fallen for the "allure" of trying to improve their roster. Don't they know that they can draft Adrian Peterson and MAKE UP for David Carr's lack of production elsewhere?! Geez Louis, they are missing the whole point of offense. You can run the ball and play good defense, and pay David Carr $8 million a year to complete 67% of his passes to Dominick Williams and Owen Daniels on a weekly basis. THIS IS WHY THE TEXANS CAN'T WIN. It's not because they couldn't run the ball or play good defense. It's because they didn't believe in David Carr!

But like I said, I like Schaub a lot.

Wait, what? Pete Prisco, pick a damn side!

Some wonder what Schaub has done to deserve his lofty status as a potential quarterback,

Schaub completed 67%(!) over 32 starts at Virginia. The QB projection system would love him...if he qualified. For whatever reason, the scouts did not give Schaub a top 2 round grade, so the projection system tends to be a little less accurate with regards to him. It guarentees nothing about 3rd round picks.

but you need only look at his 2005 start against the New England Patriots to get an idea of how good he can be as a starter.

In that game, Schaub threw for 298 yards, three touchdowns and had a passer rating of 112.1. That's sensational against a Bill Belichick defense.

The doubters will say that it's just one game.

Only Pete Prisco could argue both sides and still fail to be right.

Oh, I forgot, it's just one game.

What happens when opponents really prepare for him on a regular basis? That's fair. Will it be like a pitcher in baseball who excels the first time around the league and then gets figured out the next time around?

Prisco should probably NOT bring baseball into this considering his incomplete mastery of the sport he's paid to write about. Also, STOP TRYING TO "ANSWER" YOUR CRITICS BY MAKING TERRIBLE ARGUMENTS AGAINST YOUR OWN THAT ARE SO BAD THAT EVEN YOU CAN SHOOT THEM DOWN!!!

My opinion is Schaub will be good. The Falcons people I talked to agreed, but they realize that they had to make the deal or they could have lost him next year without getting anything in return. Michael Vick is their quarterback, even if not everybody in-house agrees he should be. His contract, coupled with his buddy-buddy relationship with the owner, makes it that way, which is why Schaub is on his way to Houston where he will take over for Carr.

And because he's an improvement over David Carr.

When the Texans used the first pick in the 2002 draft on Carr, they did so with the obvious intention of having him be their franchise passer for a long, long time. They expected growing pains, and there were.

Playing behind a sieve-like offensive line, he was sacked 76 times as a rookie. In five seasons, he's been sacked 249 times. That's a lot of shots, and it can make a player gun-shy.

If the QB Projection system had existed in 2002, we would have known that Carr wasn't going to be a special player. It's data from players like Carr that helped David Lewin create the system last year.

Not only that, Carr's had few options other than Andre Johnson, who came three years ago. Teams doubled Johnson on a regular basis, which limited the spots for Carr to throw. And the running game never had a real feature back, while the line's still in the bottom third of the league.

Who could have succeeded under those conditions?

Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Hasselbeck, Marc Bulger, and Tom Brady in that order. All would have struggled to some degree behind that level of pressure. But all would have had more success than David Carr.

Carr had his moments. In 2004, he threw for a career-high 3,531 yards and 16 touchdowns. Last season, he had a 68.3 completion percentage. That was better thanPeyton Manning, Tom Brady, Carson Palmer, and Drew Brees. That's impressive.

Sage Rosenfels completed 69% in the same offense. Mark Brunell completed 63.4% in 9 starts this year. His backup, Jason Campbell, completed only 53% in the exact same offense with better pass protection. Brunell's feat is considerably more impressive than Carr's.

Rosenfels, in fact, played much better this year than Carr. He nearly accrued more total value than Carr, posting a 9.6 DPAR in only 38 passes(!) (Carr threw 440). A lot of that was Carr's incomplete passes turning into INTs, a function of luck, but the point is Rosenfels>Carr.

Of course, neither Carr or Rosenfels should be damned for doing their jobs well. High completion % is always good. This, more than anything, says that Gary Kubiak really knows how to call an offense. Neither one of his QB is anything special. Schaub has a chance to be special. That's why he traded for him.

Yet the perception is Carr is a bum. He can't win. He won't make the throws. He won't get rid of the football.

Carr's not a bum. He's a caretaker. I would define a "bum" as a player below replacement level. Carr was a "bum" in 2005, but that was likely a fluke. Those other arguments suck. People are stupid.

Prisco is probably way more stupid than those people.

There is way too much talent there to give up on him.

Some coaches who worked with Carr in the past, including former Texans offensive coordinator Chris Palmer, think he can be a good starter in the league.

Chris Palmer doesn't have a job due in part to this opinion.

Does he have faults? Sure, he does. The word is he's not a great leader. Teammates notice that he leaves the facility early after practice, rather than staying around to watch film. But, according to Palmer, Carr took the film home and did the work. Palmer said he even tested him by putting things on the film that he might not expect just to make sure he watched it. He always passed.

There was also talk that Carr was babied by the Dom Capers regime.

So, you...agree with these aligations then. David Carr sucks because...he was overprotected by his original coaching staff? He sucked because Chris Palmer and Dom Capers were all over his nuts instead of giving him the coaching he needed? He needed tough love to bring out his mystical hidden talent? This is your thesis then, Pete?

That changed last season with new coach Gary Kubiak, and Carr actually played pretty well. Maybe that's what he needs.

Carr posted a DPAR of 10.4 in 2006. His DVOA was significantly below average.

Some other QB's who "played well" last year (according to Prisco):

Kurt Warner
JP Losman
Eli Manning
Jake Delhomme
David Garrard

All of which were better than Carr.

Giving up on Carr is a mistake for the Houston franchise. Whoever gets him will be getting a player who can be a Super Bowl quarterback. The reality is he will probably be better with a change of scenery.

He might post a DPAR in the 20's! He's got league average potential!

Also, "Super Bowl Quarterback" means nothing. Especially if you are David Carr. It means your team won the super bowl. That's it. It's not a compliment to your skill.

He just needs to get to a spot where there is talent around him, a place that will allow him to show the skills that are indeed there.

Schaub will be fine, but the Texans already had a quarterback with winning skills on their roster. And he wouldn't have cost them two second-round picks and two spots in the first round, either.

I don't know where you're proposing he go to showcase his skills, Pete Prisco, but rest assured that any team that fits your criteria already has a better QB on the roster than David Carr.

Yes, that was a hefty price to pay for a 2004 3rd round pick. They could have traded up for Brady Quinn instead. It would have used up thier first round pick that now resides in the 10 hole, but they would have kept at least one of those 2nd rounders, and he's more of a sure thing than Schaub according to the projection system. But I don't see how anyone can fault the Texans for trying to improve their QB situation.

Houston panicked. Why? The allure of something new clouded the Texans' vision.

They'll realize eventually that the one they had wasn't all that bad after all.

Why? How? What?

Since you spent the entire article admitting that Schaub was going to be good, and the rest defending Carr's crapitude as "not getting a chance" and just blatently misevalutating his performance this season, how can you expect the QB situation not to improve there.

Surely you wouldn't have expected Carr's numbers to improve if his protection didn't. And surely you must assume that the Texans' pass pro will improve at some point in the future. So some QB is going to reap benefits that David Carr never had. Chances are this player will be much better than David Carr.

So what the hell are you saying here? They were getting better production from SAGE ROSENFELS than David Carr! What will happen in the future to make them wish they still had David Carr. They win 7 games next year? I bet they'll be killing themselves over this move!

You're shamelessly defending Carr against a move that's going to benefit him when he gets out of Houston. What the crap is your problem?!

That was the long version. Hope you enjoyed it.

Here's the short version: Pete Prisco is always wrong.

It's Draft Season Everybody!

This time, Chris Low goes down on Jamarcus Russell.

The enormity of it all has yet to sink in, and those who've known him since he was old enough to grip a football aren't a bit surprised.

But, hey, that's vintage JaMarcus Russell.

I, for one, think it's great that Chris Low has such a special, special relationship with JaMarcus Russell. I am sure that Mr. Low will abuse his special relationship to find a fitting definition to the term "vintage JaMarcus Russell" which he will share with us in this piece. I am not completely wasting my time by reading this because this is not going to be just another JaMarcus Russell puff piece.

Ready?

Down two touchdowns or up two touchdowns, he's the same quarterback. Sitting in the pocket with all kinds of time or throwing with guys hanging all over him, he is convinced that his next play will be his best play. Soaking up a record-setting day or suffering through a forgettable day, he still wants the ball at the end.

Basically he does...what every other draft eligible QB does. Good, because for a second there...

"I've always believed that you measure a quarterback on his bad days, not his good days," said Jimbo Fisher

You're going to get some real shitty numbers if you do that, Jimbo.

"When you're not having your best day, how do you respond? Can you stay into it and manage the game? JaMarcus knew he was a great player with great ability -- and he also knew, if something went wrong or if he messed something up, that he would usually get another chance.

"If he got that ball at the end of the game, he was going to beat your tail -- and he knew it."

Most QBs strive to lock that game up before that last drive so that they can take a knee. But not JaMarcus Russell. He's got a method already.

Similarly, Russell doesn't flinch at the thought of being the No. 1 overall pick in April's NFL draft. The Oakland Raiders are eyeing him closely with that first selection. Russell has been in Arizona training with some of the best receivers in the draft, including former teammate Dwyane Bowe, Tennessee's Robert Meachem and Southern Cal's Dwayne Jarrett.

I have a sinking feeling that the Raiders no longer eye anyone closely. Because if they did, they probably wouldn't be looking at JaMarcus Russell. But I didn't know he was working out in Arizona with a bunch of other draft prospects! This changes everything!

His take on the whole process?

"I'm just going to chill," said Russell, whose cool demeanor has been mistaken for nonchalance more than a few times during his career.

This is the single greatest piece of information I have ever read.

Never a big talker, Russell really doesn't need to. His teammates say there is a quiet confidence about him that is infectious.

"You just learn to trust that he's going to make big plays," said Bowe, who jokes that his hands are still swollen from catching 95 mph fastballs from the 6-foot-5, 265-pound Russell. "He never talked a whole lot about it. He just went out there and did it. That's why so many respected him. When he's out there, there's no doubt in your mind that we were going to win the game."

You play for LSU. You are going to win the game most of the time because you are almost always the best team on the field. JaMarcus Russell was a part of this equation, but not the entire reason for your success.

Also, way to sneak in a comment about how great his arm is, Chris Low. You'd thought you'd slide that one by us. You dog.

Russell, 25-4 as a starter at LSU, engineered eight comeback victories in the fourth quarter during his career. He capped a scintillating close to the 2006 season by outplaying Brady Quinn and passing for a career-high 332 yards in a 41-14 drubbing of Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl.

1) That was one game. I don't care if it was the Sugar Bowl. One game out of 29 starts (remember this figure, I promise to explain it's significance).

2) Notre Dame's defense blew in 2006. LSU's defense was dominant. JaMarcus Russell should have had the better game. It was to be expected. If Quinn had had the better game, there would have been an upset and JaMarcus Russell would be a 4th round pick right now.

3) The Sugar Bowl was nothing if not a home game for LSU

4) 41-14 is how the game ended, but does not tell the whole story. It was a one TD game at half, tied late in the first half.

The Sugar Bowl is not a great argument as to why JaMarcus Russell should be the first pick in April's draft.

Suddenly, Russell was the most coveted quarterback out there, and the questions about his decision-making and his tendency to rely on his big right arm had been reduced to a murmur.

"What a great QB that Russell is. Look at how he manipulates Terrail Lambert to fall down and Chiedum Ndukwe to completely forget his assignment." Look, he makes one read and throws a touchdown. What decision making! A lot of guys would have passed up that easy touchdown, but not this guy!"

"It's always been my dream to go high in the draft. But to be the first pick in the draft, that's crazy. I still won't believe it until it happens."

You and me both, JaMarcus. You and me both.

Joe Theismann!

Has created a list of the top 5 receivers in the NFL (Oh, Goodie!!)

1. Marvin Harrison
2. Steve Smith
3. Chad Johnson
4. Torry Holt

Not a bad list at all. Harrison finished 2nd in receiver DPAR (which in no way is a foolproof statistic, far from it, but its probably the single best one to measure WR production) behind teammate Reggie Wayne. Smith was a legitimate MVP candidate in 2005. Johnson led the league in WR yards this year and does so consistently. Holt's among the top of the DPAR list year in and year out.

5. Randy Moss.

Am I the only one who watched the Seahawks and the Raiders on Monday Night last year? Randy Moss must have dropped 30 balls in that game alone. For the 2006 season, he posted a 0.8 DPAR. 0.8. If you don't know how funny that is, read this. The only thing more funny that that is that the color commentator called out a certain receiver on national TV for lackidasical effort. That commentator was...you guessed it, Joe Theismann.

In 2005, he put up a more respectable 15.2 DPAR. But that ranks him 25th in the league.
In 2004, he posted a DPAR of 23.1, good for 22nd in the league. Still not elite.

It could be debated as to whether or not Theismann is making his list based on a guy's potential, because that would make his choice of Moss defensible. But if this is the case, why was he # 5? Seems to me like he has a lot more receiving talent than both Harrison and Holt, and maybe Johnson. The thing about Moss is that he disappears from the field for months at times.

I know he's part of the Raiders' offensive system, and not an intrigal part of it at that. I know Raider QBs get sacked once in every 8 dropbacks. But Randy Moss is part of this. He is getting paid to help his young (crappy) QB. He is providing no help whatsoever.

Randy Moss hasn't been relevant since 2003. At this point, are we even sure he still has the same skills that made him famous in his youth? We can be certain that he's not a top 10 receiver in this league anymore, much less top 5. Why can't Joe Theismann?

Mike Nolan: PI=Death Penalty

49ers coach Mike Nolan apparently does not have a cousin on death row.

"You can maim someone, and it's 15 yards," he said. "You can end someone's career, and it's 15 yards. Pass interference -- it's not a reflection of the severity of the crime. It's like getting the death penalty for going 75 mph in a 55 zone."

You can make a great case for the rules regarding the enforcement of pass interference to be changed. I could make a better one designed to better structure the way it's called. And Nolan has a right to challenge the integrity of a rule.

But in most cases, pass interference occurs as a last ditch means of stopping a completed pass. It's never supposed to be called as an accidental foul. PI--by nature--is intentional. So by lowering the consequences for it, it will often become a statistically smart move to interfere with the receiver.

Pro Football is already a game where the better team is going to lose 38% of the time. Changing rules to benefit teams with worse pass defenses is counterproductive. Not surprisingly, the 49ers ranked 29th against the pass last year posting an 18.1% DVOA below the league average.

And the death penalty!! WTF?