Here at Turn Off ESPN!, we don't take a lot of time to compliment half decently written articles about sports. Naturally, we spend a lot of time breaking down work from resident CBS moron Pete Prisco. In a new (and likely only) attempt at defending a sportswriter in this space, I'd like to turn your attention to Prisco's latest article, and some good points he makes in it.
Put simply, and oddly enough, correctly:
" It's so bad that Quinn Gray, the man who was third team behind Leftwich in Jacksonville, is visiting teams, while Leftwich just hopes for a shot.
How can that be? There's a reason Gray was listed third on that Jaguars depth chart. Gray simply isn't as good as Leftwich. "
Leftwich played an above average season in 2004, posting a 2.3% DVOA and 30+ DPAR. In 2005, he posted a 19.3% DVOA and 43.5 DPAR. He was below average in 2006, and missed the final ten games of the season prior to the playoff game.
Here's the point: Everything we know about Byron Leftwich tells us that he is a very talented, and historically productive QB. He's 28 years old, and right in the prime of his career. He's done enough to justify his first round draft status. He's probably NOT a better QB than the man who replaced him, David Garrard. Leftwich, however, should be starting somewhere in this league. If you are the Raiders, Vikings, Lions, Ravens, or Dolphins, why wouldn't you pay Byron Leftwich to play QB for you?
With all the talk about African-American QB's not getting a fair shake in this league, why is Leftwich not getting a chance? Why do Quinn Gray and Cleo Lemon get to bounce from team to team following in the steps of Jeff Blake and Tony Banks, and Byron Leftwich gets no job offers, despite being one of the 32 best QBs in the world and a harbringer of positive PR for a bunch of team's that badly need it.
I just don't get it.
Showing posts with label quarterbacks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label quarterbacks. Show all posts
Monday, March 17, 2008
Thursday, December 13, 2007
Scouts Inc rates your team's Quarterback!
Ineffectively.
The reason why is very simple. Simple enough that they admit it themselves, before the list is even seen.
The hardest part was deciding how to rank them. Do we look at just this year? Do we look at their careers and their body of work? We decided it would be a mixture of the two, that we couldn't completely ignore a veteran with a history of great success having a subpar year.
The hardest part is coming up with a method of evalutation. Really? I can give you a ton of ways of evaluating QBs (in no particular order, as Scouts Inc. would prefer it):
yards
touchdowns
yards per attempt
completion percentage
consecutive starts
college starts
drawn out of a hat
drawn out of a shoebox
alphabetically by last name
alphabetically by first name
alphabetically by middle name
numerically
color of teams home jersey
QB DVOA
age
height
weight
stench
and last and most definately least:
Wins!
The point is, if you are going to make a list, you need to have criteria. "A mix" of the criteria does not cut it. Then you just have subjective dribble.
The reason why is very simple. Simple enough that they admit it themselves, before the list is even seen.
The hardest part was deciding how to rank them. Do we look at just this year? Do we look at their careers and their body of work? We decided it would be a mixture of the two, that we couldn't completely ignore a veteran with a history of great success having a subpar year.
The hardest part is coming up with a method of evalutation. Really? I can give you a ton of ways of evaluating QBs (in no particular order, as Scouts Inc. would prefer it):
yards
touchdowns
yards per attempt
completion percentage
consecutive starts
college starts
drawn out of a hat
drawn out of a shoebox
alphabetically by last name
alphabetically by first name
alphabetically by middle name
numerically
color of teams home jersey
QB DVOA
age
height
weight
stench
and last and most definately least:
Wins!
The point is, if you are going to make a list, you need to have criteria. "A mix" of the criteria does not cut it. Then you just have subjective dribble.
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
Where exactly is the "Hill" again?
Per Len Pasquarelli:
Arguably the best free-agent quarterback still available is Drew Bledsoe, who has fielded more than a few phone calls but remains steadfast in insisting he is retired. Jake Plummer is sitting at home in Idaho, but the Bucs still own his rights and have filed a grievance against him for retiring rather than reporting to camp. Aaron Brooks probably is the next most-accomplished free agent.
"And after that," noted one pro personnel director, whose team has not yet suffered a problem at quarterback, "it really goes downhill."
The best three quarterbacks that a "pro personnel director" could come up with are Bledsoe, Plummer, and Brooks?
I guess Vinny Testaverde was already...oh right.
Arguably the best free-agent quarterback still available is Drew Bledsoe, who has fielded more than a few phone calls but remains steadfast in insisting he is retired. Jake Plummer is sitting at home in Idaho, but the Bucs still own his rights and have filed a grievance against him for retiring rather than reporting to camp. Aaron Brooks probably is the next most-accomplished free agent.
"And after that," noted one pro personnel director, whose team has not yet suffered a problem at quarterback, "it really goes downhill."
The best three quarterbacks that a "pro personnel director" could come up with are Bledsoe, Plummer, and Brooks?
I guess Vinny Testaverde was already...oh right.
Tuesday, August 7, 2007
Someone once said that Brady Quinn was a bust because he missed a week of camp?
Adam Schefter reports:
While Quinn already has agreed to a five-year deal with the Browns, (Raiders QB Jamarcus) Russell is nowhere close to a deal.
Two weeks ago, a person familiar with Russell and the Raiders negotiations said the two sides were a "Grand Canyon" apart.
Now, the same person said the two sides are a "bay" apart.
Russell to San Francisco?
Raider Nation can only hope.
While Quinn already has agreed to a five-year deal with the Browns, (Raiders QB Jamarcus) Russell is nowhere close to a deal.
Two weeks ago, a person familiar with Russell and the Raiders negotiations said the two sides were a "Grand Canyon" apart.
Now, the same person said the two sides are a "bay" apart.
Russell to San Francisco?
Raider Nation can only hope.
Sunday, April 29, 2007
Former Browns Consultant Praises Russell Pick
Former Browns' consultant Vic Carrucci has attempted to write a rare post-draft puff piece on JaMarcus Russell. What he succeeded in doing is writing an NFL piece that I would expect from a middle-schooler. Read at your own peril.
This was a slam-dunk. This was a no-brainer. This was the sensible decision once all of the nonsensical speculation finally stopped.
The Oakland Raiders could not pass on a quarterback. Not after saying no to Matt Leinart a year ago. Not while lacking a legitimate starting quarterback this year. Not with Lane Kiffin, their rookie head coach, needing a centerpiece to the explosive, quick-striking offense he is looking to build.
It's not like the JaMarcus Russell pick was made because anyone in the world thought he was the best player available. Like him or hate him, he's going to be the Raiders best QB since Rich Gannon retired--unless Josh McCown beats him to the punch.
So while you have to respect the Raiders for making the move they needed to make based on the information they had, it's obvious that the Raiders' methods of QB evaluation--like most of the league--are flawed, and that 99% of the population will realize this before Vic Carruci does.
He's "special".
Furthermore, the Raiders could not pass on one of the most talented passers to emerge from the college ranks in many years.
#1) They did.
#2) As you alluded to one paragraph before, they've proven the ability to pass on a franchise QB before this year also.
They could not pass on a quarterback with JaMarcus Russell's ultra-powerful arm or his extraordinary athleticism for someone with a towering, 6-foot-5-plus, 256-pound frame.
What about Calvin Johnson? What about him? He is an incredibly talented wide receiver, but what good would that be with no one to throw him the ball.
For evidence on why a 6-5 256 lb frame means about as much to being a good QB as having a gigantic wang, see this post.
If you want evidence on why an ultra-powerful arm and overrated atleticism aren't very valuable, go read everything we've ever written, or just sit in the corner and let common sense set in.
I'm really sorry that I didn't get a chance to do more Calvin Johnson posting prior to the draft, but basically, receivers are improperly valued for a plethora of reasons, and Calvin Johnson will likely not do any "game redefining" during his NFL tenure.
What about Brady Quinn? What about him? He had an outstanding collegiate career, but he does not possess the same pure talent as Russell. No other quarterback in the 2007 college crop does. No quarterback currently in the league can match his arm strength.
Russell was the choice. Russell always was the choice.
I like the part where Vic Carruci writes of Quinn, "He had an outstading collegiate career" only to realize that this fact completely trumps all of his weak Russell points. He sheepishly tosses Quinn to the side of the road, and goes back to giving Russell a hummer.
Yes, he has some rough spots that were evident even during his most dominant moments at LSU. All rookies do. Kiffin and the rest of the Raiders' coaching staff are capable of smoothing them out.
It also helps when you have the tremendous foundation that Russell provides. He still will be able to do good things even before he learns what he needs to learn to become a consistently effective NFL quarterback.
Well, of course. In sabremetric football circles, and in MOST conventional circles, it's pretty much accepted--and evidenced--that no QB as a rookie will play anywhere near what he will be as a guy in his prime. Quinn is no more of an exception than Russell is.
The second statement is pretty much true also. I mean, sure Russell will only be a shell of his not so great potential, but just because he will be a complete "deer-in-the-headlights" rookie that has little chance of being replacement level does not mean that he won't rifle interceptions and take sacks with the utmost arm strength and falling force respectively.
I've heard the criticism that the importance of Russell's arm strength is overrated. It isn't.
Um, okay?
I've heard that the forecast for tomorrow for Chicago, Illinois will be 75 and sunny. But trust me, it won't be!
Your evidence?
No, he won't be throwing long passes on every down or on most downs. But the mere fact he poses a deep-ball threat is going to allow him to make an impact that Quinn and other rookie quarterbacks with less powerful arms aren't able to make. The respect opposing defenses must show Russell for his ability to make a game-breaking play with one flick of the wrist alters their coverage in ways that should allow the Raiders to run more effectively and/or make plays with short and intermediate passes.
This is not how football is played. Number one, no amount of respect for his arm will make up for a typical rookie QB performance. He will be costing the Raiders points. Quinn might be also, but he has a far better chance of being above replacement level. At least, thats what his projection tells me. Number two, you can not just assume that defenses will play JaMarcus Russell differently than any other crappy QB with a big arm.
Then again, after watching what his arm strength did to warp the minds of these draft analysts, defensive coordinators should be a bunch of sitting ducks, so long as he keeps his golden arm gleaming and polished.
I've heard criticism that the importance of Russell's standout performance in the Sugar Bowl is overrated. It isn't. Russell gave his best performance in the biggest game of his career, and that says plenty about him as a competitor and about what he can do at the next level. The fact he clearly overshadowed Quinn is equally important, because Quinn once held the distinction of being the best quarterback in the draft. Russell went a long way toward making him second best.
I think JaMarcus Russell proved clearly that he could do exactly to the Irish secondary what future NFL studs like Pat Cowan, Joe Dailey, John David Booty, Drew Stanton, Curtis Painter, and even Reggie Ball could do with superior offensive talent. All aboard the Reggie Ball man train!
Seriously, the notion that one "big" game against a weak opponent should be weighed any more greatly than any game Russell didn't play as well in is sick, twisted, disgusting, and perhaps the worst possible evaluation of a QB .
Russell isn't defined solely by his immense physical skills. He also has exceptional awareness in the pocket and his instincts are superb.
I think Carriuci's observation right here is more than a bit off. But don't take my word for it, how about we take the word of the guy who created the fucking QB projection system:
David Lewin writes, "An even bigger issue with Russell is that he is an atrocious decision maker. He consistently throws the ball into double and triple coverage. Like Favre he often gets away with it by making spectacular throws. Still, field vision is the single most important quality for a quarterback. You can get away with being average in this regard if you have superior arm strength and accuracy, but Russell still has a ways to go before he can be considered average at seeing the field."
Lewin's analysis is actually defended by real life "examples" and anecdotal evidence, which means it's "more accurate than" Carruci's baseless statement.
As the top overall pick of the draft, he must deliver in a big way. Every bit as big as his talent and physique says he can.
"Whether it's other people or myself, I set my standards very high and for the expectations that everybody has," Russell said. "But you know, you can only do what God has set for you to do. I'll be very pleased to go out there and work as hard as I can to make everything possible for the Raiders."
As the top overall draft pick, Russell will get a contract that is likely 2 years longer, and worth about 6 million more on a per season basis than Brady Quinn will after his draft day free fall.
Meanwhile, the Browns will build around their powerful offensive line and QB, and the Raiders will build around a weak QB and offense with what little cap room they have left. The Browns will become a perennial playoff contender, and the Raiders will not.
And the most ironic part in all of this is that Vic Carrucci got fired from his post as consultant to the Browns, allowing for this to happen.
This was a slam-dunk. This was a no-brainer. This was the sensible decision once all of the nonsensical speculation finally stopped.
The Oakland Raiders could not pass on a quarterback. Not after saying no to Matt Leinart a year ago. Not while lacking a legitimate starting quarterback this year. Not with Lane Kiffin, their rookie head coach, needing a centerpiece to the explosive, quick-striking offense he is looking to build.
It's not like the JaMarcus Russell pick was made because anyone in the world thought he was the best player available. Like him or hate him, he's going to be the Raiders best QB since Rich Gannon retired--unless Josh McCown beats him to the punch.
So while you have to respect the Raiders for making the move they needed to make based on the information they had, it's obvious that the Raiders' methods of QB evaluation--like most of the league--are flawed, and that 99% of the population will realize this before Vic Carruci does.
He's "special".
Furthermore, the Raiders could not pass on one of the most talented passers to emerge from the college ranks in many years.
#1) They did.
#2) As you alluded to one paragraph before, they've proven the ability to pass on a franchise QB before this year also.
They could not pass on a quarterback with JaMarcus Russell's ultra-powerful arm or his extraordinary athleticism for someone with a towering, 6-foot-5-plus, 256-pound frame.
What about Calvin Johnson? What about him? He is an incredibly talented wide receiver, but what good would that be with no one to throw him the ball.
For evidence on why a 6-5 256 lb frame means about as much to being a good QB as having a gigantic wang, see this post.
If you want evidence on why an ultra-powerful arm and overrated atleticism aren't very valuable, go read everything we've ever written, or just sit in the corner and let common sense set in.
I'm really sorry that I didn't get a chance to do more Calvin Johnson posting prior to the draft, but basically, receivers are improperly valued for a plethora of reasons, and Calvin Johnson will likely not do any "game redefining" during his NFL tenure.
What about Brady Quinn? What about him? He had an outstanding collegiate career, but he does not possess the same pure talent as Russell. No other quarterback in the 2007 college crop does. No quarterback currently in the league can match his arm strength.
Russell was the choice. Russell always was the choice.
I like the part where Vic Carruci writes of Quinn, "He had an outstading collegiate career" only to realize that this fact completely trumps all of his weak Russell points. He sheepishly tosses Quinn to the side of the road, and goes back to giving Russell a hummer.
Yes, he has some rough spots that were evident even during his most dominant moments at LSU. All rookies do. Kiffin and the rest of the Raiders' coaching staff are capable of smoothing them out.
It also helps when you have the tremendous foundation that Russell provides. He still will be able to do good things even before he learns what he needs to learn to become a consistently effective NFL quarterback.
Well, of course. In sabremetric football circles, and in MOST conventional circles, it's pretty much accepted--and evidenced--that no QB as a rookie will play anywhere near what he will be as a guy in his prime. Quinn is no more of an exception than Russell is.
The second statement is pretty much true also. I mean, sure Russell will only be a shell of his not so great potential, but just because he will be a complete "deer-in-the-headlights" rookie that has little chance of being replacement level does not mean that he won't rifle interceptions and take sacks with the utmost arm strength and falling force respectively.
I've heard the criticism that the importance of Russell's arm strength is overrated. It isn't.
Um, okay?
I've heard that the forecast for tomorrow for Chicago, Illinois will be 75 and sunny. But trust me, it won't be!
Your evidence?
No, he won't be throwing long passes on every down or on most downs. But the mere fact he poses a deep-ball threat is going to allow him to make an impact that Quinn and other rookie quarterbacks with less powerful arms aren't able to make. The respect opposing defenses must show Russell for his ability to make a game-breaking play with one flick of the wrist alters their coverage in ways that should allow the Raiders to run more effectively and/or make plays with short and intermediate passes.
This is not how football is played. Number one, no amount of respect for his arm will make up for a typical rookie QB performance. He will be costing the Raiders points. Quinn might be also, but he has a far better chance of being above replacement level. At least, thats what his projection tells me. Number two, you can not just assume that defenses will play JaMarcus Russell differently than any other crappy QB with a big arm.
Then again, after watching what his arm strength did to warp the minds of these draft analysts, defensive coordinators should be a bunch of sitting ducks, so long as he keeps his golden arm gleaming and polished.
I've heard criticism that the importance of Russell's standout performance in the Sugar Bowl is overrated. It isn't. Russell gave his best performance in the biggest game of his career, and that says plenty about him as a competitor and about what he can do at the next level. The fact he clearly overshadowed Quinn is equally important, because Quinn once held the distinction of being the best quarterback in the draft. Russell went a long way toward making him second best.
I think JaMarcus Russell proved clearly that he could do exactly to the Irish secondary what future NFL studs like Pat Cowan, Joe Dailey, John David Booty, Drew Stanton, Curtis Painter, and even Reggie Ball could do with superior offensive talent. All aboard the Reggie Ball man train!
Seriously, the notion that one "big" game against a weak opponent should be weighed any more greatly than any game Russell didn't play as well in is sick, twisted, disgusting, and perhaps the worst possible evaluation of a QB .
Russell isn't defined solely by his immense physical skills. He also has exceptional awareness in the pocket and his instincts are superb.
I think Carriuci's observation right here is more than a bit off. But don't take my word for it, how about we take the word of the guy who created the fucking QB projection system:
David Lewin writes, "An even bigger issue with Russell is that he is an atrocious decision maker. He consistently throws the ball into double and triple coverage. Like Favre he often gets away with it by making spectacular throws. Still, field vision is the single most important quality for a quarterback. You can get away with being average in this regard if you have superior arm strength and accuracy, but Russell still has a ways to go before he can be considered average at seeing the field."
Lewin's analysis is actually defended by real life "examples" and anecdotal evidence, which means it's "more accurate than" Carruci's baseless statement.
As the top overall pick of the draft, he must deliver in a big way. Every bit as big as his talent and physique says he can.
"Whether it's other people or myself, I set my standards very high and for the expectations that everybody has," Russell said. "But you know, you can only do what God has set for you to do. I'll be very pleased to go out there and work as hard as I can to make everything possible for the Raiders."
As the top overall draft pick, Russell will get a contract that is likely 2 years longer, and worth about 6 million more on a per season basis than Brady Quinn will after his draft day free fall.
Meanwhile, the Browns will build around their powerful offensive line and QB, and the Raiders will build around a weak QB and offense with what little cap room they have left. The Browns will become a perennial playoff contender, and the Raiders will not.
And the most ironic part in all of this is that Vic Carrucci got fired from his post as consultant to the Browns, allowing for this to happen.
Sunday, April 1, 2007
Turn Off ESPN presents an honest evaluation of JaMarcus Russell!
April Fools!!
Tom Martinez knows better. He knows that an arm does not make a quarterback. He knows that Tom Brady, his most famous protégé, won three Super Bowls because he respects the finer points of the job. And he knows that a quarterback should never, ever be asked to roll to one side of the field and then throw to the other. It's inefficient, mechanically unsound, such a scandalous misuse of momentum that a 10th-grade physics student would flag the play.
Yes, this is all quite accurate.
But Martinez couldn't help himself. JaMarcus Russell's arm is that seductive.
Once again, JaMarcus Russell's arm inspires the ignorance of all general football laws. That is a really special arm that's about to lead him to a Grossman-esque career.
When it came time to create a list of plays for Russell to run in front of dozens of NFL scouts and executives last month, Martinez went with the taboo as their grand finale. Russell rolled right, and his receiver broke that way, too, before switching direction.
"JaMarcus threw it 70 yards and completed it," Martinez said. "It was unbelievable, unbelievable. You could hear this "Ahhhh" coming from all the NFL people."
Read that quote again. Now I want you to tell me that Tom Martinez is not just another fanboy.
He wore a mischievous grin when he described the play, still exhilarated that Russell could do something so wrong so right. In his 32 years as a coach at the College of San Mateo and endless summers tutoring quarterbacks at football camps, Martinez has worked with some of the biggest names in the business -- John Elway, future Heisman winner Gino Torretta, USC's Rob Johnson and Brady, who attended his first Martinez camp at age 13 and still calls on him for help with his mechanics. New Englanders view Martinez as something of a wizard.
Torretta and Johnson. If Russell could only be that good...
But the coach has never seen anyone quite like the 21-year-old favorite to become the No. 1 pick in this month's NFL draft or done anything like the prep work that he performed for Russell.
Remember when Kyle Boller took a knee on the 50 yard line and consistnetly threw balls though the uprights, wowing everyone there with his arm strength. I mean, it seemed at the time that taking a player based solely on physical skills was foolish. Then we saw it all play out for Kyle Boller. So what's going to be the excuse when Russell is predictably average. He was in Oakland? Wrong, wrong, wrong. Scouts have learned that it is foolish to project a QB to the NFL based on the variable of Arm Strength. Yet, they seem to be unable to control their hormones every time a guy like Russell roles around. Who's paying these guys. Quotes like these should be grounds for dismissal so you don't continue to make the same mistakes year after year.
At Athletes' Performance, a specialized training camp in Tempe, Ariz., Martinez joined a team grooming Russell to take his place atop the draft. The chief competition, Brady Quinn of Notre Dame, is more polished and experienced than Russell, with four years as a college starter as opposed to two, yet he showed up in Tempe for some buffing of his own.
YES!! YES!! Four years of college compared to two. THIS IS WHAT MATTERS. This is it. Build on this point. This is the only reason that Brady Quinn will be a better NFL QB then Jamarcus Russell. Gwen Knapp, please oh please don't let throw this point out here without comparing Russell to other first round picks who started less than 30 games in college, and Quinn to other guys who started 45 plus. Just do it, I beg you!
Russell's size makes him both alluring and unnerving, creating doubts about his agility. He can probably absorb a hit very well, but will he lumber around in the pocket, unable to keep up with the speed of the NFL game? At 6-foot-6, he looks more like a tight end than a quarterback, and he reportedly carried as much as 265 pounds when he led LSU past Quinn's Irish in the Sugar Bowl. His fitness advisers in Arizona peeled close to 10 pounds off him, revealing a sleeker model. Martinez immediately went to work on Russell's feet.
GAAHHHHHH!!! NOOOO. Ah, the AGONY!!
I hate bad sportswriting.
In fact, he wanted to put all of Russell's presumed weaknesses on display. Agents create scripts for these events, and they are usually written to obscure areas of doubt. Martinez reasoned that the scouts and coaches would eventually, in private workouts, ask Russell to perform drills that emphasized perceived shortcomings. He wanted the script to answer the big questions, to assure the scouts that Russell had nothing to hide.
Did Martinez find the Denver Broncos' defense and put them out there against the Oakland Raiders offense plus Russell at QB and let JaMarucus strut his stuff. If he didn't do this, I'm really not sure how much of his weaknesses were really on display. JaMarcus' weakness is his inexperience, just like any other QB who has ever come out early. By the time he gets to a point where he makes up the gap between himself and Quinn's college experience, he's probably already going to be a backup somewhere in this league. He's never going to catch Quinn in experience unless Quinn sustaines a multiple year injury.
When you really think about it, making a guy with 2 years of college experience your NFL Quarterback is really no different than a fortune 500 corporation giving a high ranking managerial job to a person who left school half way through his/her college degree to "go pro". I mean, it very well could work out for you. But you try to tell me that the same person would NOT be a more efficent worker if he/she stayed and finished his/her degree.
Now tell me that Russell will be better than Quinn.
By coming out early, Russell already put the sentence on his NFL Career. I'm guessing sometime in his first 4 seasons, he will post a respectable set of numbers, and a bunch of talking heads will talk about how JaMarcus Russell has "arrived". The next year those numbers will completely regress and the only person the mediots won't blame for the regression is Russell himself.
I guess it can be debated if Russell goes number one overall whether or not it was worth it to come out. On one hand, he could have been a bona fide stud QB had he stayed in college another year and produced. On the other, he likely would not be the No. 1 pick in a draft that includes Brian Brohm. Then again, he shouldn't be the No. 1 pick in a draft that involves Quinn, but Brohm could be even better than Quinn.
The Raiders, current owners of the top pick, recently invited Martinez for what was reported to be an interview to become the team's quarterbacks coach. Martinez read it more as "a chance to exchange information," and he filled them in on what he had learned about Russell.
If the Raiders took the opinion of a guy with a clear interest in the matter with any more than a grain of salt, there is no hope for them as an organzation.
Russell's soft-spoken personality? "He's very quiet, very respectful," Martinez said, "He doesn't say much, but he's always taking things in. You can see him sizing things up and figuring people out."
Russell's background? Martinez believes that any NFL executive who meets with Russell's relatives will gain confidence in the decision to draft him. "He has a very grounded family," Martinez said. "They're all squared away. They're not buying into the fanfare around this."
Now, Gwen Knapp, you've discarded all analysis to turn this into a puff piece. Congratulations.
The other information he would like to impart would apply to any 21-year-old. Russell needs stability, continuity on the coaching staff. Martinez once heard Jim Plunkett describe a harrowing period in his career when the quarterbacks coach changed four times in four years. He doesn't want one of the most prodigious talents the game has ever seen to be squandered.
Because Jim Plunkett's career ended just so horribly unfufilled.
Martinez has seen all of Russell's flaws up close, and he still finds himself amazed. He says that Russell, fulfilling a typical scout's request, can stand flat-footed at the goal line and, without moving his body for the necessary torque, throw a ball 77 yards downfield.
That's nothing. Did I tell you about the time that Kyle Boller threw a ball really far from his knees. Russell ain't got nothing on Boller.
He can also sit at the opponent's 40-yard line and throw a ball through the uprights of the goalpost. Cal's Kyle Boller once asserted that he could throw the same pass from the 50 while on his knees. But Russell does it on his backside, relying entirely on his arm. Martinez fondly calls this maneuver "the butt throw."
Shit. This is the most unbelieveable paragraph in professional sportswriting. You are comparing (correctly) JaMarcus Russell to Kyle Boller in a puff piece. DO YOU HAVE ANY IDEA HOW RETARDED THAT IS! How can you make this comparision and NOT REALIZE THAT KYLE BOLLER IS A HORRIBLE QUARTERBACK!!
Martinez is a technical wizard, so he probably shouldn't be so impressed. But he can't help himself. Two weeks as JaMarcus Russell's coach turned him into a fanboy.
Okay, so in reality the article says "fan", not "fanboy". I just thought it rolled off the tounge better this way.
Tom Martinez knows better. He knows that an arm does not make a quarterback. He knows that Tom Brady, his most famous protégé, won three Super Bowls because he respects the finer points of the job. And he knows that a quarterback should never, ever be asked to roll to one side of the field and then throw to the other. It's inefficient, mechanically unsound, such a scandalous misuse of momentum that a 10th-grade physics student would flag the play.
Yes, this is all quite accurate.
But Martinez couldn't help himself. JaMarcus Russell's arm is that seductive.
Once again, JaMarcus Russell's arm inspires the ignorance of all general football laws. That is a really special arm that's about to lead him to a Grossman-esque career.
When it came time to create a list of plays for Russell to run in front of dozens of NFL scouts and executives last month, Martinez went with the taboo as their grand finale. Russell rolled right, and his receiver broke that way, too, before switching direction.
"JaMarcus threw it 70 yards and completed it," Martinez said. "It was unbelievable, unbelievable. You could hear this "Ahhhh" coming from all the NFL people."
Read that quote again. Now I want you to tell me that Tom Martinez is not just another fanboy.
He wore a mischievous grin when he described the play, still exhilarated that Russell could do something so wrong so right. In his 32 years as a coach at the College of San Mateo and endless summers tutoring quarterbacks at football camps, Martinez has worked with some of the biggest names in the business -- John Elway, future Heisman winner Gino Torretta, USC's Rob Johnson and Brady, who attended his first Martinez camp at age 13 and still calls on him for help with his mechanics. New Englanders view Martinez as something of a wizard.
Torretta and Johnson. If Russell could only be that good...
But the coach has never seen anyone quite like the 21-year-old favorite to become the No. 1 pick in this month's NFL draft or done anything like the prep work that he performed for Russell.
Remember when Kyle Boller took a knee on the 50 yard line and consistnetly threw balls though the uprights, wowing everyone there with his arm strength. I mean, it seemed at the time that taking a player based solely on physical skills was foolish. Then we saw it all play out for Kyle Boller. So what's going to be the excuse when Russell is predictably average. He was in Oakland? Wrong, wrong, wrong. Scouts have learned that it is foolish to project a QB to the NFL based on the variable of Arm Strength. Yet, they seem to be unable to control their hormones every time a guy like Russell roles around. Who's paying these guys. Quotes like these should be grounds for dismissal so you don't continue to make the same mistakes year after year.
At Athletes' Performance, a specialized training camp in Tempe, Ariz., Martinez joined a team grooming Russell to take his place atop the draft. The chief competition, Brady Quinn of Notre Dame, is more polished and experienced than Russell, with four years as a college starter as opposed to two, yet he showed up in Tempe for some buffing of his own.
YES!! YES!! Four years of college compared to two. THIS IS WHAT MATTERS. This is it. Build on this point. This is the only reason that Brady Quinn will be a better NFL QB then Jamarcus Russell. Gwen Knapp, please oh please don't let throw this point out here without comparing Russell to other first round picks who started less than 30 games in college, and Quinn to other guys who started 45 plus. Just do it, I beg you!
Russell's size makes him both alluring and unnerving, creating doubts about his agility. He can probably absorb a hit very well, but will he lumber around in the pocket, unable to keep up with the speed of the NFL game? At 6-foot-6, he looks more like a tight end than a quarterback, and he reportedly carried as much as 265 pounds when he led LSU past Quinn's Irish in the Sugar Bowl. His fitness advisers in Arizona peeled close to 10 pounds off him, revealing a sleeker model. Martinez immediately went to work on Russell's feet.
GAAHHHHHH!!! NOOOO. Ah, the AGONY!!
I hate bad sportswriting.
In fact, he wanted to put all of Russell's presumed weaknesses on display. Agents create scripts for these events, and they are usually written to obscure areas of doubt. Martinez reasoned that the scouts and coaches would eventually, in private workouts, ask Russell to perform drills that emphasized perceived shortcomings. He wanted the script to answer the big questions, to assure the scouts that Russell had nothing to hide.
Did Martinez find the Denver Broncos' defense and put them out there against the Oakland Raiders offense plus Russell at QB and let JaMarucus strut his stuff. If he didn't do this, I'm really not sure how much of his weaknesses were really on display. JaMarcus' weakness is his inexperience, just like any other QB who has ever come out early. By the time he gets to a point where he makes up the gap between himself and Quinn's college experience, he's probably already going to be a backup somewhere in this league. He's never going to catch Quinn in experience unless Quinn sustaines a multiple year injury.
When you really think about it, making a guy with 2 years of college experience your NFL Quarterback is really no different than a fortune 500 corporation giving a high ranking managerial job to a person who left school half way through his/her college degree to "go pro". I mean, it very well could work out for you. But you try to tell me that the same person would NOT be a more efficent worker if he/she stayed and finished his/her degree.
Now tell me that Russell will be better than Quinn.
By coming out early, Russell already put the sentence on his NFL Career. I'm guessing sometime in his first 4 seasons, he will post a respectable set of numbers, and a bunch of talking heads will talk about how JaMarcus Russell has "arrived". The next year those numbers will completely regress and the only person the mediots won't blame for the regression is Russell himself.
I guess it can be debated if Russell goes number one overall whether or not it was worth it to come out. On one hand, he could have been a bona fide stud QB had he stayed in college another year and produced. On the other, he likely would not be the No. 1 pick in a draft that includes Brian Brohm. Then again, he shouldn't be the No. 1 pick in a draft that involves Quinn, but Brohm could be even better than Quinn.
The Raiders, current owners of the top pick, recently invited Martinez for what was reported to be an interview to become the team's quarterbacks coach. Martinez read it more as "a chance to exchange information," and he filled them in on what he had learned about Russell.
If the Raiders took the opinion of a guy with a clear interest in the matter with any more than a grain of salt, there is no hope for them as an organzation.
Russell's soft-spoken personality? "He's very quiet, very respectful," Martinez said, "He doesn't say much, but he's always taking things in. You can see him sizing things up and figuring people out."
Russell's background? Martinez believes that any NFL executive who meets with Russell's relatives will gain confidence in the decision to draft him. "He has a very grounded family," Martinez said. "They're all squared away. They're not buying into the fanfare around this."
Now, Gwen Knapp, you've discarded all analysis to turn this into a puff piece. Congratulations.
The other information he would like to impart would apply to any 21-year-old. Russell needs stability, continuity on the coaching staff. Martinez once heard Jim Plunkett describe a harrowing period in his career when the quarterbacks coach changed four times in four years. He doesn't want one of the most prodigious talents the game has ever seen to be squandered.
Because Jim Plunkett's career ended just so horribly unfufilled.
Martinez has seen all of Russell's flaws up close, and he still finds himself amazed. He says that Russell, fulfilling a typical scout's request, can stand flat-footed at the goal line and, without moving his body for the necessary torque, throw a ball 77 yards downfield.
That's nothing. Did I tell you about the time that Kyle Boller threw a ball really far from his knees. Russell ain't got nothing on Boller.
He can also sit at the opponent's 40-yard line and throw a ball through the uprights of the goalpost. Cal's Kyle Boller once asserted that he could throw the same pass from the 50 while on his knees. But Russell does it on his backside, relying entirely on his arm. Martinez fondly calls this maneuver "the butt throw."
Shit. This is the most unbelieveable paragraph in professional sportswriting. You are comparing (correctly) JaMarcus Russell to Kyle Boller in a puff piece. DO YOU HAVE ANY IDEA HOW RETARDED THAT IS! How can you make this comparision and NOT REALIZE THAT KYLE BOLLER IS A HORRIBLE QUARTERBACK!!
Martinez is a technical wizard, so he probably shouldn't be so impressed. But he can't help himself. Two weeks as JaMarcus Russell's coach turned him into a fanboy.
Okay, so in reality the article says "fan", not "fanboy". I just thought it rolled off the tounge better this way.
Thursday, March 29, 2007
This article is titled: "Plummer, Harrington not dead yet"!
Which pisses me off because I spent all day on the phone setting up the funeral arrangements.
Jeremy Green, please enlighten us.
New Tampa Bay Buccaneers' quarterback Jeff Garcia probably would never admit this, but he is the epitome of a system quarterback. That is not to say he doesn't have talent, it is just that he has proven he needs the right system to succeed.
Garcia has quick feet in the pocket, is able to improvise on the move, gets the ball out quickly and is accurate on short-to-intermediate passes. Those are just a few of the traits that make him an ideal quarterback in the West Coast offense. He has racked up a 61-percent career completion rate, and you can't succeed in that system with a low completion percentage.
An ideal quarterback in the west coast offense? Do, you Jeremy Green know who is the league's most ideal QB for the west coast offense?
Give up? It's Peyton Manning. You know why? Because Peyton Manning is the league's best quarterback.
Additionally, you cite Garcia's 61-percent career completion %, but you just throw it out there inexplicably. Numbers are great tools, but most come attached to an argument, not thrown into the middle of a paragraph for the hell of it. Are you saying that his 61% completion percentage makes him a successful QB, or are you saying that Garcia can't succeed in a west coast offense with numbers that low? Neither answer makes much sense because 61%, while usually a solid career, is not significantly good or bad. It's pretty acceptable for a west coast QB.
Three years ago, when Garcia was released by the 49ers, he forgot how important the system was. Opting for the big pay day instead of the right fit, he spurned the Buccaneers for the Cleveland Browns.
That choice led to him playing in an offense that didn't suit him, and suffering through one of his worst seasons in the NFL. He lasted one season in Cleveland before moving on to Detroit, where in 2005 he had little talent around him. Then the light went back on. Last year he took a backup role in Philadelphia, which turned out to be the best move of the his career since leaving San Francisco.
One of the NFL's most notorious myths; Jeff Garcia was horrible in Cleveland in 2004. Garcia started 7 games that year before a season concluding injury, and went 3-4. Furthermore, there is a significant difference between his VOA and DVOA. The adjustment for defenses faced gives Garcia a big break, meaning that Garcia faced some damn tough D's in his 7 starts there. His otherwise hapless team went 1-8 without him against significantly weaker defenses. The fact that Garcia won 3 games in 7 tries with THAT team is a testament to how well he played.
Jeff Garcia broke his leg in training camp in 2005. He returned midway through the season and posted some really crappy numbers. 2005 is a very clear one year abberation in a very predictable career path for Jeff Garcia. Possible reasons for this abberation include a crappy attempt at a west coast offense by a Detroit team that foolishly spent 3 top ten selections on receivers (neglecting obvious team-wide talent problems at positions far more significant), and the fact that Jeff Garcia BROKE HIS FREAKIN LEG IN THE PRESEASON!
In Philadelphia, he was reunited with his former San Francisco offensive coordinator, Marty Mornhinweg, in the original West Coast system. When Donovan McNabb was lost to the season with an injury, Garcia was given the chance to shine. In the right system and with an offensive coordinator who trusted him, he posted a 6-2 record (including the postseason). During one stretch, Garcia led the Eagles to six straight wins.
Anybody who had followed Jeff Garcia's career should not be surprised that he "rebounded" from the Detroit Lion experience. Garcia's career path has statistically been on a predictable declining line since his probowl years in San Francisco. 2005 was a complete and otherwise inexplicable abberation from this line. When injury is involved, the player nearly always rebounds. The nature of quarterbacking does not allow a guy to just "lose it". The art of playing quarterback is not heavily based on physical skill. Guys will stop improving about their 10th year out of college, but good career QBs can keep playing at a respectable level well into their 40s if they really wanted to. It's like kickers in many ways. Sure Morten Andersen doesn't have the leg to hit 55 yarders anymore, but he can still kick extra points through the uprights, and 10 years from now, will still have that ability.
The system is not responsible for Garcia's "rebound" The west coast offense is very instrumental in improving conventional stats. This is because QBs that complete a higher percentage will throw more TDs and less INTs and get more yards per attempt. The West Coast offense and its offspring systems assist a QB in completing a high percentage of his passes. This makes ANY QB more successful. In many ways, its a superior offensive system to many traditional vertical offenses.
This, however, is NOT an issue of making Jeff Garcia feel comfortable (resisting...urge...to make...gay joke). Garcia would have bounced back in any damn system, including Oakland's vertical offense. His conventional stats would have looked worse in Oakland, but he would have posted similar DPAR to what he did this year. Then again, there's a reason that I only care about a select few conventional stats. Even these stats (completion % and yards/attempt) are heavily context related, so approach with caution.
That success led to Garcia hitting the market again this season and he wasn't going to make the same mistake again. Garcia visited the Oakland Raiders, who have added veteran offensive coordinator Greg Knapp. Even though Garcia had played under Knapp in San Francisco, the Raiders never will rid themselves of the vertical passing game.
The Raiders offered more money, but when Tampa came calling, it was an easy choice for Garcia. He made the choice he should have made three seasons ago. Now he is with a coach in Jon Gruden who runs a system he knows and trusts.
Even at 37, Garcia is still spry. He showed last season that in the right system, he still can get the job done.
Well, no. Garcia took Tampa's offer because Oakland wouldn't commit to passing on a QB in this draft. Both Tampa and Oakland are void of offensive talent. Tampa has the more QB friendly system, but I think Jeremy Green is confusing QB friendly with Jeff Garcia friendly. All quarterbacks benefit from a system that allows them to complete more passes.
Garcia wasn't the only aging backup QB who was successful last season. Kansas City's Damon Huard kept his team in the playoff hunt when Trent Green missed the first half of the season with a severe concussion. Charlie Batch played well when called upon in Pittsburgh. The common theme is that both were in systems they were comfortable with.
I think the common theme between Huard and Garcia is that they both are pretty good QBs. Undoubtably, Huard would have regressed towards the mean if he had stayed as the starter in KC. He played well enough though to earn the starting job in KC, and I doubt that this is entirely because of the system. That same system didn't help Trent Green overcome his concussion now, did it?
I'm really happy that Charlie Batch played well in two starts. This is not evidence for anything, Jeremy Green.
In a fairly weak free-agent QB market, who are some guys with a chance to revitalize their careers this season? Let's start with Jake Plummer. Yes, I know he has said he is retiring, but the bottom line is he does not want to play in Tampa Bay. He also feels jilted by the Broncos.
However, if he were traded to the Houston Texans, would that bring him back to the NFL? Plummer has not filed his paperwork as of yet, so if a deal can be swung, I believe he would be more then willing to don a Texans' uniform.
Fine, Kubiak is the coach of the Broncos. He runs another very QB friendly system. David Carr completed 69%. Plummer could be every bit as good as Carr. But if Houston had really wanted him, they would have gone out and got him. Not that he would have done anything to solve their QB issue. They'd just be adding 6 years to David Carr's career. 2005 cannot possibly justify an entire career of sort of passable play. His system will not make Jake Plummer a good QB, his system will make Plummer a very conservative QB to prevent him from throwing with his left hand.
But they have Matt Schaub to do that.
Plummer is still only 32 and had the best season of his career in 2005, when current Texans' head coach Gary Kubiak was his offensive coordinator in Denver. If Plummer ends up in Houston, he might have to sit behind David Carr, but you can bet Carr will be on a short leash. Plummer knows the system, likes the situation and believes in the head coach. If he has any chance to resurrect his career, Houston is the best place for that to happen.
I know this article is dated prior to the Schaub trade and Carr release, but why in the fuck would Jake Plummer want to go back up David Carr? Why in the fuck would the Texans want that? If they are going to go out and spend on a QB, wouldn't they want someone who is actually good? Plummer retired. He IS dead. Let go, Jeremy Green. Let go.
Another QB who has a chance to resurrect his career this season is Joey Harrington. The former Lion and Dolphin is on the open market again after only his fifth NFL season.
The fascinating part about this is that Joey Harrington has earned himself the title of "Worst QB in NFL History" from a study of total QB value by Chase Stuart of Pro Football Reference. Harrington isn't actually the worst QB ever to play a down, but per the blog entry, his combination of consistenly poor play and inexplicable longevity means that he has hurt his teams with poor play more than any other player in NFL history. Long live the King!
Now we can assume that Jeremy Green will try to barter for Harrington to get another chance to further establish this impressively bad legacy. Maybe we can get him in a real QB unfriendly system and see just how poorly he can play!
Harrington is still young (28) and the passion to play the game is still there. You could see it last season in Miami. He will never live up to the expectations Detroit had when it drafted him No. 3 overall in 2002, but he showed flashes last season in Miami. In a league littered with average starting quarterbacks, Harrington is good enough to be effective with talent around him.
Harrington needs to find the right backup role. Two spots stand out to me: Denver and Cincinnati. In Denver, he would be the backup to Jay Cutler and would be playing for a coach in Mike Shanahan who knows a thing or two about the position. In Cincinnati, he would be behind Carson Palmer, and would be on a team littered with offensive playmakers.
Without adjusting for defense, Joey Harrington posted an incredibly subpar -7.3 PAR in 2006. If you adjust for some ridiculously tough pass defense, Harrington comes out above replacement level, but you have to wonder if Jeremy Green is some type of robot that has a function that interprets Harrington's play while adjusting for defense in real time observation mode. Robo-Green II then must calculate Harrington's flash factor in real time and upon doing all the above reaches the conclusion that Joey Harrington's play in 2006 was indictive of "some" flash factor. Now Robo-Green II has the task of translating Harrington's flash factor to a projection of potential.
But due to the ultimate outcome, it appears that the Robo-Green II is actually a poor talent evaluator. I didn't see any flash from Harrington last year. Maybe he got confused by that one game in Miami that had all that lightning.
Or maybe Jeremy Green did none of this and just decided to up and defend Harrington with no evidence that he's got a future outside of an observation that "the passion to play the game is still there".
The Bengals need a backup QB with starting experience, after Anthony Wright hit the free-agent market this offseason. As disappointing as Harrington has been, he is a much better player than Wright.
Anthony Wright was, in 2005, the perfect replacement level QB (DPAR=0.0). Harrington is slightly above replacement for career. So Jeremy Green is sort of correct. But I'm not sure "much better player than (Anthony) Wright" is ever a good defense for a quarterback.
Being a backup QB in the NFL is not always about talent. It is about being in the right place at the right time. Plummer and Harrington are two players who never lived up to expectations, but in the right system and surrounded by the right supporting cast, they could emerge as this season's version of Garcia.
To "be" a backup QB is all about being in the right place at the right time. To be a good backup QB has nothing to do with system or expectations. It has to do with finding the best QB option at a reasonable price. If the starter gets hurt, do you really want to be the team that's stuck with Plummer or Harrington at QB? Really?
Didn't think so.
I don't think either of them will be this year's Jeff Garcia. Neither has ever done anything Garcia did in their careers, so expecting Garcia-like numbers would be sort of retarded. Like this article.
Jeremy Green, please enlighten us.
New Tampa Bay Buccaneers' quarterback Jeff Garcia probably would never admit this, but he is the epitome of a system quarterback. That is not to say he doesn't have talent, it is just that he has proven he needs the right system to succeed.
Garcia has quick feet in the pocket, is able to improvise on the move, gets the ball out quickly and is accurate on short-to-intermediate passes. Those are just a few of the traits that make him an ideal quarterback in the West Coast offense. He has racked up a 61-percent career completion rate, and you can't succeed in that system with a low completion percentage.
An ideal quarterback in the west coast offense? Do, you Jeremy Green know who is the league's most ideal QB for the west coast offense?
Give up? It's Peyton Manning. You know why? Because Peyton Manning is the league's best quarterback.
Additionally, you cite Garcia's 61-percent career completion %, but you just throw it out there inexplicably. Numbers are great tools, but most come attached to an argument, not thrown into the middle of a paragraph for the hell of it. Are you saying that his 61% completion percentage makes him a successful QB, or are you saying that Garcia can't succeed in a west coast offense with numbers that low? Neither answer makes much sense because 61%, while usually a solid career, is not significantly good or bad. It's pretty acceptable for a west coast QB.
Three years ago, when Garcia was released by the 49ers, he forgot how important the system was. Opting for the big pay day instead of the right fit, he spurned the Buccaneers for the Cleveland Browns.
That choice led to him playing in an offense that didn't suit him, and suffering through one of his worst seasons in the NFL. He lasted one season in Cleveland before moving on to Detroit, where in 2005 he had little talent around him. Then the light went back on. Last year he took a backup role in Philadelphia, which turned out to be the best move of the his career since leaving San Francisco.
One of the NFL's most notorious myths; Jeff Garcia was horrible in Cleveland in 2004. Garcia started 7 games that year before a season concluding injury, and went 3-4. Furthermore, there is a significant difference between his VOA and DVOA. The adjustment for defenses faced gives Garcia a big break, meaning that Garcia faced some damn tough D's in his 7 starts there. His otherwise hapless team went 1-8 without him against significantly weaker defenses. The fact that Garcia won 3 games in 7 tries with THAT team is a testament to how well he played.
Jeff Garcia broke his leg in training camp in 2005. He returned midway through the season and posted some really crappy numbers. 2005 is a very clear one year abberation in a very predictable career path for Jeff Garcia. Possible reasons for this abberation include a crappy attempt at a west coast offense by a Detroit team that foolishly spent 3 top ten selections on receivers (neglecting obvious team-wide talent problems at positions far more significant), and the fact that Jeff Garcia BROKE HIS FREAKIN LEG IN THE PRESEASON!
In Philadelphia, he was reunited with his former San Francisco offensive coordinator, Marty Mornhinweg, in the original West Coast system. When Donovan McNabb was lost to the season with an injury, Garcia was given the chance to shine. In the right system and with an offensive coordinator who trusted him, he posted a 6-2 record (including the postseason). During one stretch, Garcia led the Eagles to six straight wins.
Anybody who had followed Jeff Garcia's career should not be surprised that he "rebounded" from the Detroit Lion experience. Garcia's career path has statistically been on a predictable declining line since his probowl years in San Francisco. 2005 was a complete and otherwise inexplicable abberation from this line. When injury is involved, the player nearly always rebounds. The nature of quarterbacking does not allow a guy to just "lose it". The art of playing quarterback is not heavily based on physical skill. Guys will stop improving about their 10th year out of college, but good career QBs can keep playing at a respectable level well into their 40s if they really wanted to. It's like kickers in many ways. Sure Morten Andersen doesn't have the leg to hit 55 yarders anymore, but he can still kick extra points through the uprights, and 10 years from now, will still have that ability.
The system is not responsible for Garcia's "rebound" The west coast offense is very instrumental in improving conventional stats. This is because QBs that complete a higher percentage will throw more TDs and less INTs and get more yards per attempt. The West Coast offense and its offspring systems assist a QB in completing a high percentage of his passes. This makes ANY QB more successful. In many ways, its a superior offensive system to many traditional vertical offenses.
This, however, is NOT an issue of making Jeff Garcia feel comfortable (resisting...urge...to make...gay joke). Garcia would have bounced back in any damn system, including Oakland's vertical offense. His conventional stats would have looked worse in Oakland, but he would have posted similar DPAR to what he did this year. Then again, there's a reason that I only care about a select few conventional stats. Even these stats (completion % and yards/attempt) are heavily context related, so approach with caution.
That success led to Garcia hitting the market again this season and he wasn't going to make the same mistake again. Garcia visited the Oakland Raiders, who have added veteran offensive coordinator Greg Knapp. Even though Garcia had played under Knapp in San Francisco, the Raiders never will rid themselves of the vertical passing game.
The Raiders offered more money, but when Tampa came calling, it was an easy choice for Garcia. He made the choice he should have made three seasons ago. Now he is with a coach in Jon Gruden who runs a system he knows and trusts.
Even at 37, Garcia is still spry. He showed last season that in the right system, he still can get the job done.
Well, no. Garcia took Tampa's offer because Oakland wouldn't commit to passing on a QB in this draft. Both Tampa and Oakland are void of offensive talent. Tampa has the more QB friendly system, but I think Jeremy Green is confusing QB friendly with Jeff Garcia friendly. All quarterbacks benefit from a system that allows them to complete more passes.
Garcia wasn't the only aging backup QB who was successful last season. Kansas City's Damon Huard kept his team in the playoff hunt when Trent Green missed the first half of the season with a severe concussion. Charlie Batch played well when called upon in Pittsburgh. The common theme is that both were in systems they were comfortable with.
I think the common theme between Huard and Garcia is that they both are pretty good QBs. Undoubtably, Huard would have regressed towards the mean if he had stayed as the starter in KC. He played well enough though to earn the starting job in KC, and I doubt that this is entirely because of the system. That same system didn't help Trent Green overcome his concussion now, did it?
I'm really happy that Charlie Batch played well in two starts. This is not evidence for anything, Jeremy Green.
In a fairly weak free-agent QB market, who are some guys with a chance to revitalize their careers this season? Let's start with Jake Plummer. Yes, I know he has said he is retiring, but the bottom line is he does not want to play in Tampa Bay. He also feels jilted by the Broncos.
However, if he were traded to the Houston Texans, would that bring him back to the NFL? Plummer has not filed his paperwork as of yet, so if a deal can be swung, I believe he would be more then willing to don a Texans' uniform.
Fine, Kubiak is the coach of the Broncos. He runs another very QB friendly system. David Carr completed 69%. Plummer could be every bit as good as Carr. But if Houston had really wanted him, they would have gone out and got him. Not that he would have done anything to solve their QB issue. They'd just be adding 6 years to David Carr's career. 2005 cannot possibly justify an entire career of sort of passable play. His system will not make Jake Plummer a good QB, his system will make Plummer a very conservative QB to prevent him from throwing with his left hand.
But they have Matt Schaub to do that.
Plummer is still only 32 and had the best season of his career in 2005, when current Texans' head coach Gary Kubiak was his offensive coordinator in Denver. If Plummer ends up in Houston, he might have to sit behind David Carr, but you can bet Carr will be on a short leash. Plummer knows the system, likes the situation and believes in the head coach. If he has any chance to resurrect his career, Houston is the best place for that to happen.
I know this article is dated prior to the Schaub trade and Carr release, but why in the fuck would Jake Plummer want to go back up David Carr? Why in the fuck would the Texans want that? If they are going to go out and spend on a QB, wouldn't they want someone who is actually good? Plummer retired. He IS dead. Let go, Jeremy Green. Let go.
Another QB who has a chance to resurrect his career this season is Joey Harrington. The former Lion and Dolphin is on the open market again after only his fifth NFL season.
The fascinating part about this is that Joey Harrington has earned himself the title of "Worst QB in NFL History" from a study of total QB value by Chase Stuart of Pro Football Reference. Harrington isn't actually the worst QB ever to play a down, but per the blog entry, his combination of consistenly poor play and inexplicable longevity means that he has hurt his teams with poor play more than any other player in NFL history. Long live the King!
Now we can assume that Jeremy Green will try to barter for Harrington to get another chance to further establish this impressively bad legacy. Maybe we can get him in a real QB unfriendly system and see just how poorly he can play!
Harrington is still young (28) and the passion to play the game is still there. You could see it last season in Miami. He will never live up to the expectations Detroit had when it drafted him No. 3 overall in 2002, but he showed flashes last season in Miami. In a league littered with average starting quarterbacks, Harrington is good enough to be effective with talent around him.
Harrington needs to find the right backup role. Two spots stand out to me: Denver and Cincinnati. In Denver, he would be the backup to Jay Cutler and would be playing for a coach in Mike Shanahan who knows a thing or two about the position. In Cincinnati, he would be behind Carson Palmer, and would be on a team littered with offensive playmakers.
Without adjusting for defense, Joey Harrington posted an incredibly subpar -7.3 PAR in 2006. If you adjust for some ridiculously tough pass defense, Harrington comes out above replacement level, but you have to wonder if Jeremy Green is some type of robot that has a function that interprets Harrington's play while adjusting for defense in real time observation mode. Robo-Green II then must calculate Harrington's flash factor in real time and upon doing all the above reaches the conclusion that Joey Harrington's play in 2006 was indictive of "some" flash factor. Now Robo-Green II has the task of translating Harrington's flash factor to a projection of potential.
But due to the ultimate outcome, it appears that the Robo-Green II is actually a poor talent evaluator. I didn't see any flash from Harrington last year. Maybe he got confused by that one game in Miami that had all that lightning.
Or maybe Jeremy Green did none of this and just decided to up and defend Harrington with no evidence that he's got a future outside of an observation that "the passion to play the game is still there".
The Bengals need a backup QB with starting experience, after Anthony Wright hit the free-agent market this offseason. As disappointing as Harrington has been, he is a much better player than Wright.
Anthony Wright was, in 2005, the perfect replacement level QB (DPAR=0.0). Harrington is slightly above replacement for career. So Jeremy Green is sort of correct. But I'm not sure "much better player than (Anthony) Wright" is ever a good defense for a quarterback.
Being a backup QB in the NFL is not always about talent. It is about being in the right place at the right time. Plummer and Harrington are two players who never lived up to expectations, but in the right system and surrounded by the right supporting cast, they could emerge as this season's version of Garcia.
To "be" a backup QB is all about being in the right place at the right time. To be a good backup QB has nothing to do with system or expectations. It has to do with finding the best QB option at a reasonable price. If the starter gets hurt, do you really want to be the team that's stuck with Plummer or Harrington at QB? Really?
Didn't think so.
I don't think either of them will be this year's Jeff Garcia. Neither has ever done anything Garcia did in their careers, so expecting Garcia-like numbers would be sort of retarded. Like this article.
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