Mel Kiper Jr. on Sports Center today (12/11, bottom half of 2 o'clock EST hour) just suggested taking Tebow in the first two rounds, and then converting him to an H-Back. I don't often agree with Todd McShay, but I have to think that he was on to something when he explained that you probably don't draft an H-Back in the first round, especially when "YOU DON'T EVEN KNOW IF HE CAN CATCH".
Kiper countered that no one knew Antawn Randle El could catch "until the Super Bowl". Redskins fans disagree: they still don't think he can catch.
Showing posts with label draft. Show all posts
Showing posts with label draft. Show all posts
Thursday, December 11, 2008
Wednesday, May 2, 2007
I don't know what to say about this
Consensus Draft Grades?
Lions got a 3.0 for taking another WR (C. Johnson) at no. 2 (because Charles Rogers worked out great) and a bad QB prospect (Stanton).
Eagles take a great QB prospect (Kolb), a great defensive end (Abiamiri), and a highly rated RB "steal" in Tony Hunt...and milk out a consensus 1.8 DPA (Draft Point Average).
Hey, if it's clear to us in the sabermetric football community that you have no idea how to evaluate a draft--maybe you are better off waiting the 3 years to actually get some feedback.
Lions got a 3.0 for taking another WR (C. Johnson) at no. 2 (because Charles Rogers worked out great) and a bad QB prospect (Stanton).
Eagles take a great QB prospect (Kolb), a great defensive end (Abiamiri), and a highly rated RB "steal" in Tony Hunt...and milk out a consensus 1.8 DPA (Draft Point Average).
Hey, if it's clear to us in the sabermetric football community that you have no idea how to evaluate a draft--maybe you are better off waiting the 3 years to actually get some feedback.
Sunday, April 29, 2007
Former Browns Consultant Praises Russell Pick
Former Browns' consultant Vic Carrucci has attempted to write a rare post-draft puff piece on JaMarcus Russell. What he succeeded in doing is writing an NFL piece that I would expect from a middle-schooler. Read at your own peril.
This was a slam-dunk. This was a no-brainer. This was the sensible decision once all of the nonsensical speculation finally stopped.
The Oakland Raiders could not pass on a quarterback. Not after saying no to Matt Leinart a year ago. Not while lacking a legitimate starting quarterback this year. Not with Lane Kiffin, their rookie head coach, needing a centerpiece to the explosive, quick-striking offense he is looking to build.
It's not like the JaMarcus Russell pick was made because anyone in the world thought he was the best player available. Like him or hate him, he's going to be the Raiders best QB since Rich Gannon retired--unless Josh McCown beats him to the punch.
So while you have to respect the Raiders for making the move they needed to make based on the information they had, it's obvious that the Raiders' methods of QB evaluation--like most of the league--are flawed, and that 99% of the population will realize this before Vic Carruci does.
He's "special".
Furthermore, the Raiders could not pass on one of the most talented passers to emerge from the college ranks in many years.
#1) They did.
#2) As you alluded to one paragraph before, they've proven the ability to pass on a franchise QB before this year also.
They could not pass on a quarterback with JaMarcus Russell's ultra-powerful arm or his extraordinary athleticism for someone with a towering, 6-foot-5-plus, 256-pound frame.
What about Calvin Johnson? What about him? He is an incredibly talented wide receiver, but what good would that be with no one to throw him the ball.
For evidence on why a 6-5 256 lb frame means about as much to being a good QB as having a gigantic wang, see this post.
If you want evidence on why an ultra-powerful arm and overrated atleticism aren't very valuable, go read everything we've ever written, or just sit in the corner and let common sense set in.
I'm really sorry that I didn't get a chance to do more Calvin Johnson posting prior to the draft, but basically, receivers are improperly valued for a plethora of reasons, and Calvin Johnson will likely not do any "game redefining" during his NFL tenure.
What about Brady Quinn? What about him? He had an outstanding collegiate career, but he does not possess the same pure talent as Russell. No other quarterback in the 2007 college crop does. No quarterback currently in the league can match his arm strength.
Russell was the choice. Russell always was the choice.
I like the part where Vic Carruci writes of Quinn, "He had an outstading collegiate career" only to realize that this fact completely trumps all of his weak Russell points. He sheepishly tosses Quinn to the side of the road, and goes back to giving Russell a hummer.
Yes, he has some rough spots that were evident even during his most dominant moments at LSU. All rookies do. Kiffin and the rest of the Raiders' coaching staff are capable of smoothing them out.
It also helps when you have the tremendous foundation that Russell provides. He still will be able to do good things even before he learns what he needs to learn to become a consistently effective NFL quarterback.
Well, of course. In sabremetric football circles, and in MOST conventional circles, it's pretty much accepted--and evidenced--that no QB as a rookie will play anywhere near what he will be as a guy in his prime. Quinn is no more of an exception than Russell is.
The second statement is pretty much true also. I mean, sure Russell will only be a shell of his not so great potential, but just because he will be a complete "deer-in-the-headlights" rookie that has little chance of being replacement level does not mean that he won't rifle interceptions and take sacks with the utmost arm strength and falling force respectively.
I've heard the criticism that the importance of Russell's arm strength is overrated. It isn't.
Um, okay?
I've heard that the forecast for tomorrow for Chicago, Illinois will be 75 and sunny. But trust me, it won't be!
Your evidence?
No, he won't be throwing long passes on every down or on most downs. But the mere fact he poses a deep-ball threat is going to allow him to make an impact that Quinn and other rookie quarterbacks with less powerful arms aren't able to make. The respect opposing defenses must show Russell for his ability to make a game-breaking play with one flick of the wrist alters their coverage in ways that should allow the Raiders to run more effectively and/or make plays with short and intermediate passes.
This is not how football is played. Number one, no amount of respect for his arm will make up for a typical rookie QB performance. He will be costing the Raiders points. Quinn might be also, but he has a far better chance of being above replacement level. At least, thats what his projection tells me. Number two, you can not just assume that defenses will play JaMarcus Russell differently than any other crappy QB with a big arm.
Then again, after watching what his arm strength did to warp the minds of these draft analysts, defensive coordinators should be a bunch of sitting ducks, so long as he keeps his golden arm gleaming and polished.
I've heard criticism that the importance of Russell's standout performance in the Sugar Bowl is overrated. It isn't. Russell gave his best performance in the biggest game of his career, and that says plenty about him as a competitor and about what he can do at the next level. The fact he clearly overshadowed Quinn is equally important, because Quinn once held the distinction of being the best quarterback in the draft. Russell went a long way toward making him second best.
I think JaMarcus Russell proved clearly that he could do exactly to the Irish secondary what future NFL studs like Pat Cowan, Joe Dailey, John David Booty, Drew Stanton, Curtis Painter, and even Reggie Ball could do with superior offensive talent. All aboard the Reggie Ball man train!
Seriously, the notion that one "big" game against a weak opponent should be weighed any more greatly than any game Russell didn't play as well in is sick, twisted, disgusting, and perhaps the worst possible evaluation of a QB .
Russell isn't defined solely by his immense physical skills. He also has exceptional awareness in the pocket and his instincts are superb.
I think Carriuci's observation right here is more than a bit off. But don't take my word for it, how about we take the word of the guy who created the fucking QB projection system:
David Lewin writes, "An even bigger issue with Russell is that he is an atrocious decision maker. He consistently throws the ball into double and triple coverage. Like Favre he often gets away with it by making spectacular throws. Still, field vision is the single most important quality for a quarterback. You can get away with being average in this regard if you have superior arm strength and accuracy, but Russell still has a ways to go before he can be considered average at seeing the field."
Lewin's analysis is actually defended by real life "examples" and anecdotal evidence, which means it's "more accurate than" Carruci's baseless statement.
As the top overall pick of the draft, he must deliver in a big way. Every bit as big as his talent and physique says he can.
"Whether it's other people or myself, I set my standards very high and for the expectations that everybody has," Russell said. "But you know, you can only do what God has set for you to do. I'll be very pleased to go out there and work as hard as I can to make everything possible for the Raiders."
As the top overall draft pick, Russell will get a contract that is likely 2 years longer, and worth about 6 million more on a per season basis than Brady Quinn will after his draft day free fall.
Meanwhile, the Browns will build around their powerful offensive line and QB, and the Raiders will build around a weak QB and offense with what little cap room they have left. The Browns will become a perennial playoff contender, and the Raiders will not.
And the most ironic part in all of this is that Vic Carrucci got fired from his post as consultant to the Browns, allowing for this to happen.
This was a slam-dunk. This was a no-brainer. This was the sensible decision once all of the nonsensical speculation finally stopped.
The Oakland Raiders could not pass on a quarterback. Not after saying no to Matt Leinart a year ago. Not while lacking a legitimate starting quarterback this year. Not with Lane Kiffin, their rookie head coach, needing a centerpiece to the explosive, quick-striking offense he is looking to build.
It's not like the JaMarcus Russell pick was made because anyone in the world thought he was the best player available. Like him or hate him, he's going to be the Raiders best QB since Rich Gannon retired--unless Josh McCown beats him to the punch.
So while you have to respect the Raiders for making the move they needed to make based on the information they had, it's obvious that the Raiders' methods of QB evaluation--like most of the league--are flawed, and that 99% of the population will realize this before Vic Carruci does.
He's "special".
Furthermore, the Raiders could not pass on one of the most talented passers to emerge from the college ranks in many years.
#1) They did.
#2) As you alluded to one paragraph before, they've proven the ability to pass on a franchise QB before this year also.
They could not pass on a quarterback with JaMarcus Russell's ultra-powerful arm or his extraordinary athleticism for someone with a towering, 6-foot-5-plus, 256-pound frame.
What about Calvin Johnson? What about him? He is an incredibly talented wide receiver, but what good would that be with no one to throw him the ball.
For evidence on why a 6-5 256 lb frame means about as much to being a good QB as having a gigantic wang, see this post.
If you want evidence on why an ultra-powerful arm and overrated atleticism aren't very valuable, go read everything we've ever written, or just sit in the corner and let common sense set in.
I'm really sorry that I didn't get a chance to do more Calvin Johnson posting prior to the draft, but basically, receivers are improperly valued for a plethora of reasons, and Calvin Johnson will likely not do any "game redefining" during his NFL tenure.
What about Brady Quinn? What about him? He had an outstanding collegiate career, but he does not possess the same pure talent as Russell. No other quarterback in the 2007 college crop does. No quarterback currently in the league can match his arm strength.
Russell was the choice. Russell always was the choice.
I like the part where Vic Carruci writes of Quinn, "He had an outstading collegiate career" only to realize that this fact completely trumps all of his weak Russell points. He sheepishly tosses Quinn to the side of the road, and goes back to giving Russell a hummer.
Yes, he has some rough spots that were evident even during his most dominant moments at LSU. All rookies do. Kiffin and the rest of the Raiders' coaching staff are capable of smoothing them out.
It also helps when you have the tremendous foundation that Russell provides. He still will be able to do good things even before he learns what he needs to learn to become a consistently effective NFL quarterback.
Well, of course. In sabremetric football circles, and in MOST conventional circles, it's pretty much accepted--and evidenced--that no QB as a rookie will play anywhere near what he will be as a guy in his prime. Quinn is no more of an exception than Russell is.
The second statement is pretty much true also. I mean, sure Russell will only be a shell of his not so great potential, but just because he will be a complete "deer-in-the-headlights" rookie that has little chance of being replacement level does not mean that he won't rifle interceptions and take sacks with the utmost arm strength and falling force respectively.
I've heard the criticism that the importance of Russell's arm strength is overrated. It isn't.
Um, okay?
I've heard that the forecast for tomorrow for Chicago, Illinois will be 75 and sunny. But trust me, it won't be!
Your evidence?
No, he won't be throwing long passes on every down or on most downs. But the mere fact he poses a deep-ball threat is going to allow him to make an impact that Quinn and other rookie quarterbacks with less powerful arms aren't able to make. The respect opposing defenses must show Russell for his ability to make a game-breaking play with one flick of the wrist alters their coverage in ways that should allow the Raiders to run more effectively and/or make plays with short and intermediate passes.
This is not how football is played. Number one, no amount of respect for his arm will make up for a typical rookie QB performance. He will be costing the Raiders points. Quinn might be also, but he has a far better chance of being above replacement level. At least, thats what his projection tells me. Number two, you can not just assume that defenses will play JaMarcus Russell differently than any other crappy QB with a big arm.
Then again, after watching what his arm strength did to warp the minds of these draft analysts, defensive coordinators should be a bunch of sitting ducks, so long as he keeps his golden arm gleaming and polished.
I've heard criticism that the importance of Russell's standout performance in the Sugar Bowl is overrated. It isn't. Russell gave his best performance in the biggest game of his career, and that says plenty about him as a competitor and about what he can do at the next level. The fact he clearly overshadowed Quinn is equally important, because Quinn once held the distinction of being the best quarterback in the draft. Russell went a long way toward making him second best.
I think JaMarcus Russell proved clearly that he could do exactly to the Irish secondary what future NFL studs like Pat Cowan, Joe Dailey, John David Booty, Drew Stanton, Curtis Painter, and even Reggie Ball could do with superior offensive talent. All aboard the Reggie Ball man train!
Seriously, the notion that one "big" game against a weak opponent should be weighed any more greatly than any game Russell didn't play as well in is sick, twisted, disgusting, and perhaps the worst possible evaluation of a QB .
Russell isn't defined solely by his immense physical skills. He also has exceptional awareness in the pocket and his instincts are superb.
I think Carriuci's observation right here is more than a bit off. But don't take my word for it, how about we take the word of the guy who created the fucking QB projection system:
David Lewin writes, "An even bigger issue with Russell is that he is an atrocious decision maker. He consistently throws the ball into double and triple coverage. Like Favre he often gets away with it by making spectacular throws. Still, field vision is the single most important quality for a quarterback. You can get away with being average in this regard if you have superior arm strength and accuracy, but Russell still has a ways to go before he can be considered average at seeing the field."
Lewin's analysis is actually defended by real life "examples" and anecdotal evidence, which means it's "more accurate than" Carruci's baseless statement.
As the top overall pick of the draft, he must deliver in a big way. Every bit as big as his talent and physique says he can.
"Whether it's other people or myself, I set my standards very high and for the expectations that everybody has," Russell said. "But you know, you can only do what God has set for you to do. I'll be very pleased to go out there and work as hard as I can to make everything possible for the Raiders."
As the top overall draft pick, Russell will get a contract that is likely 2 years longer, and worth about 6 million more on a per season basis than Brady Quinn will after his draft day free fall.
Meanwhile, the Browns will build around their powerful offensive line and QB, and the Raiders will build around a weak QB and offense with what little cap room they have left. The Browns will become a perennial playoff contender, and the Raiders will not.
And the most ironic part in all of this is that Vic Carrucci got fired from his post as consultant to the Browns, allowing for this to happen.
Monday, April 23, 2007
Mel Kiper Schools Todd McShay
Mel Kiper is owning Todd McShay right now on Sportscenters NFL Draft Squareoff. Among his points:
-McShay puts too much value on big game arguments. Troy Smith and Chris Leak were wonderful in big games, but are bad prospects.
-Kiper has Quinn 5 on his board, McShay has him at 7. Kiper is trying to figure our how the fuck you can possibly feel the 7th guy on your board is overvalued. Kiper says that if McShay really thought Quinn was overvalued, he'd have him at 20-25. McShay actually claims that hes compensating for where Brady Quinn is going to be drafted. On his own personal draft board. I'm now convinced that one of the reasons he sucks so much is that he doesn't actually know what his job is.
-Per Kiper, McShay is too worried about the accuracy issues. They happen.
-The money due to each player is not an argument. You are trying to draft the best player. Worry about the money later.
This is why I love Mel Kiper. Look, the guy has Russell overrated, like a lot of other people. But rather than try to conform to conventional logic, like McShay, if he knew that Russell was bound to be the next Grossman--he'd put him down at 20-25. Because he's whats known as an "honorable draft analyst".
-McShay puts too much value on big game arguments. Troy Smith and Chris Leak were wonderful in big games, but are bad prospects.
-Kiper has Quinn 5 on his board, McShay has him at 7. Kiper is trying to figure our how the fuck you can possibly feel the 7th guy on your board is overvalued. Kiper says that if McShay really thought Quinn was overvalued, he'd have him at 20-25. McShay actually claims that hes compensating for where Brady Quinn is going to be drafted. On his own personal draft board. I'm now convinced that one of the reasons he sucks so much is that he doesn't actually know what his job is.
-Per Kiper, McShay is too worried about the accuracy issues. They happen.
-The money due to each player is not an argument. You are trying to draft the best player. Worry about the money later.
This is why I love Mel Kiper. Look, the guy has Russell overrated, like a lot of other people. But rather than try to conform to conventional logic, like McShay, if he knew that Russell was bound to be the next Grossman--he'd put him down at 20-25. Because he's whats known as an "honorable draft analyst".
Friday, April 13, 2007
A Bonus Article Tonight for all those Loyal Readers
All 4 of ya.
We are probably going to be doing nothing but draft stuff for the next two weeks in this here space because...well, nobody is going to write anything about anything in football but the draft between now and then.
Anyway, I've noticed that most scouts will overvalue a players' physical tools, especially at the wide receiver position, and then when said player fails to meet expectations they write article about how tough it is to pinpoint receivers.
Well, the truth of the matter is, it's not all that hard. You've just got to look for the guys with the most college experience. Receiver is a very mental position and you want a guy who is aware of what is going on around him playing for you. So if you are going to get behind a WR prospect, get behind a guy like Dwayne Bowe, a highly rated 4 year player (3 year starter) at LSU. You'll be right more often than this guy.
But he will learn his lesson eventually. At least, thats what I thought until I read this article. Now I'm convinced he won't ever learn why he sucks at scouting prospects.
You need to be an INsider to access it. Sorry.
Productive NFL wide receivers come in many different sizes, shapes and speeds. Just take a look at the wide receivers who led the NFL in catches last season. Sure, Houston's Andre Johnson fits the mold as the league leader with 103 receptions. After all, the former No. 3 overall pick (2003) checks in at 6-foot-3 and 219 pounds with 4.4 speed. But how do you explain Mike Furrey, a former undrafted free agent in 2000, hauling in the second-most passes (98) in 2006?
Furrey plays the slot receiver in Mike Martz' offense.
Seriously Todd, no position in football is more affected by what their team is doing around them than the WR position. You probably should know this considering the career path you've chosen.
Andre Johnson caught a bunch O hitches from David Carr. That type of offense is only successful if you turn those hitches into TD's sometimes.
Other productive NFL receivers who slipped in recent drafts include Carolina's Steve Smith (third round, 2001), Seattle's Deion Branch (second round, 2002), Arizona's Anquan Boldin (second round, 2003), the N.Y. Jets' Jerricho Cotchery (fourth round, 2004) and New Orleans' Marques Colston (seventh round, 2006). Meanwhile, David Terrell (2001), Ashley Lelie (2002), Charles Rogers (2003) and Reggie Williams (2004) all looked the part as high draft picks coming out of college but haven't come close to matching production for investment.
Steve Smith, 2 years CC + 2 years at Utah, all starting
Deion Branch, 4 years at Louisville
Anquan Boldin, 4 years at Flordia State (correct me if I'm wrong)
Marques Colston, 4 year starter at Hofstra (also a really lucky find)
Jerrico Cotchery, 3 year starter at NC State, additional PT as a Freshman
David Terrell, 2 1/2 year starter
Ashley Lelie, 3 year starter
Charles Rogers, 3 year starter
Reggie Williams, 2 1/2 year starter
Have you learned anything from this trend? I'm guessing not. Okay then, moving on.
The bottom line is that evaluating wide receiver talent from the college ranks has become maddening for NFL front offices. In my estimation, there are a couple reasons for this. First off, I would argue that quarterback is the only position with more outside factors to skew collegiate production. Secondly, the ability to "separate" is the most important skill for a wide receiver. Unfortunately, it also can be the trickiest to properly evaluate.
Todd McShay actually thinks that QB production is the most skewed position on the entire field. He actually wrote this paragraph. This is hilarious. The easist position where a convienient FORMULA exists to project success to the NFL level is the position that Todd McShay believes is the one that gets skewed the most.
Did I read that correctly?
Secondly, the ability to seperate is not really all that meaningful of a quality for a receiver. The fact that you value it so much completely explains why you can't evaluate them properly. I would think the two biggest sticking points for grading a reciever are:
1) How well he plays the ball (the catch)
2) How well he gets yards after the catch (after the catch)
I would say that MOST receivers are relatively identical in the way they seperate. This probably explains why you can't grade a difference accurately. It's also a huge red flag that you are doing this whole scouting thing improperly, but I'm not one to tell you how to do your job.
Or am I?
While catching the ball is the ultimate goal, a receiver with great hands is rendered useless if he can't get open. It's not difficult to evaluate a receiver's hands, top-end speed and leaping ability. The challenge when evaluating a wide receiver's separation skills is to sift through those potentially deceptive variables, which include his supporting cast, the offensive system he plays in and the types of defensive coverage and level of competition he faces.
It's good that its not that hard to evaluate hands, speed, and leaping ability, because those things really don't matter. I mean, you don't want to draft a guy who drops the ball a lot, but those guys stick out like sore thumbs even at the Collegiate level.
Also, why would supporting cast, offensive system, or coverage (well, I can sort of see coverage) have anything to do with how well a guy seperates. You still haven't even told us why getting seperation is important. You have no credibility whatsoever.
Although there's no exact formula that makes up a receiver's ability to separate, here's a look at some of the key ingredients:
There's probably no formula because it doesn't really matter. Let me tell you how the passing game works. The defense, if in a zone, rolls coverage to where most receivers are. Not all receivers are going to seperate on any given play. The QB reads the defense and hits the open guy.
So, seperation, as you call it, is really just the ability to run.
Wonderful. I can see how someone would think that a receiver is defined by his ability to run while playing football. But lets see some of Todd McShay's fancy terms for this skill:
1. Initial burst
2. Recognition/instincts
3. Change-of-direction skills
4. Competitiveness
Initial burst, you mean running Todd?
I personally think recognition and insticts are the most important trait for a successful receiver. Hey kiddies, you know how you develop recognition and insticts? Stay in school. Play your senior year. Learn something. College is fun. Enjoy it. Become a better NFL prospect in the process.
Change of direction skills is completely useless and arbitrary. Unless you are talking about run after catch skills. Then its just arbitrary, but can have a conceivable use.
Competitveness is not a possible criteria to get open. It just isn't.
Jerry Rice will forever be the ultimate example of this attribute. A relentless approach to the craft -- both in practice and in games -- allowed Rice to overcome below-average speed throughout his brilliant 20-year career.
Joe Montana, Steve Young, and Rich Gannon may have had something to do with this too Todd.
This is a nice gritty article from Todd McShay with great upside and a high ceiling to allow for a lot of potential growth. What it's missing in facts and analysis (everything), it makes up for with initial burst and competitiveness.
We are probably going to be doing nothing but draft stuff for the next two weeks in this here space because...well, nobody is going to write anything about anything in football but the draft between now and then.
Anyway, I've noticed that most scouts will overvalue a players' physical tools, especially at the wide receiver position, and then when said player fails to meet expectations they write article about how tough it is to pinpoint receivers.
Well, the truth of the matter is, it's not all that hard. You've just got to look for the guys with the most college experience. Receiver is a very mental position and you want a guy who is aware of what is going on around him playing for you. So if you are going to get behind a WR prospect, get behind a guy like Dwayne Bowe, a highly rated 4 year player (3 year starter) at LSU. You'll be right more often than this guy.
But he will learn his lesson eventually. At least, thats what I thought until I read this article. Now I'm convinced he won't ever learn why he sucks at scouting prospects.
You need to be an INsider to access it. Sorry.
Productive NFL wide receivers come in many different sizes, shapes and speeds. Just take a look at the wide receivers who led the NFL in catches last season. Sure, Houston's Andre Johnson fits the mold as the league leader with 103 receptions. After all, the former No. 3 overall pick (2003) checks in at 6-foot-3 and 219 pounds with 4.4 speed. But how do you explain Mike Furrey, a former undrafted free agent in 2000, hauling in the second-most passes (98) in 2006?
Furrey plays the slot receiver in Mike Martz' offense.
Seriously Todd, no position in football is more affected by what their team is doing around them than the WR position. You probably should know this considering the career path you've chosen.
Andre Johnson caught a bunch O hitches from David Carr. That type of offense is only successful if you turn those hitches into TD's sometimes.
Other productive NFL receivers who slipped in recent drafts include Carolina's Steve Smith (third round, 2001), Seattle's Deion Branch (second round, 2002), Arizona's Anquan Boldin (second round, 2003), the N.Y. Jets' Jerricho Cotchery (fourth round, 2004) and New Orleans' Marques Colston (seventh round, 2006). Meanwhile, David Terrell (2001), Ashley Lelie (2002), Charles Rogers (2003) and Reggie Williams (2004) all looked the part as high draft picks coming out of college but haven't come close to matching production for investment.
Steve Smith, 2 years CC + 2 years at Utah, all starting
Deion Branch, 4 years at Louisville
Anquan Boldin, 4 years at Flordia State (correct me if I'm wrong)
Marques Colston, 4 year starter at Hofstra (also a really lucky find)
Jerrico Cotchery, 3 year starter at NC State, additional PT as a Freshman
David Terrell, 2 1/2 year starter
Ashley Lelie, 3 year starter
Charles Rogers, 3 year starter
Reggie Williams, 2 1/2 year starter
Have you learned anything from this trend? I'm guessing not. Okay then, moving on.
The bottom line is that evaluating wide receiver talent from the college ranks has become maddening for NFL front offices. In my estimation, there are a couple reasons for this. First off, I would argue that quarterback is the only position with more outside factors to skew collegiate production. Secondly, the ability to "separate" is the most important skill for a wide receiver. Unfortunately, it also can be the trickiest to properly evaluate.
Todd McShay actually thinks that QB production is the most skewed position on the entire field. He actually wrote this paragraph. This is hilarious. The easist position where a convienient FORMULA exists to project success to the NFL level is the position that Todd McShay believes is the one that gets skewed the most.
Did I read that correctly?
Secondly, the ability to seperate is not really all that meaningful of a quality for a receiver. The fact that you value it so much completely explains why you can't evaluate them properly. I would think the two biggest sticking points for grading a reciever are:
1) How well he plays the ball (the catch)
2) How well he gets yards after the catch (after the catch)
I would say that MOST receivers are relatively identical in the way they seperate. This probably explains why you can't grade a difference accurately. It's also a huge red flag that you are doing this whole scouting thing improperly, but I'm not one to tell you how to do your job.
Or am I?
While catching the ball is the ultimate goal, a receiver with great hands is rendered useless if he can't get open. It's not difficult to evaluate a receiver's hands, top-end speed and leaping ability. The challenge when evaluating a wide receiver's separation skills is to sift through those potentially deceptive variables, which include his supporting cast, the offensive system he plays in and the types of defensive coverage and level of competition he faces.
It's good that its not that hard to evaluate hands, speed, and leaping ability, because those things really don't matter. I mean, you don't want to draft a guy who drops the ball a lot, but those guys stick out like sore thumbs even at the Collegiate level.
Also, why would supporting cast, offensive system, or coverage (well, I can sort of see coverage) have anything to do with how well a guy seperates. You still haven't even told us why getting seperation is important. You have no credibility whatsoever.
Although there's no exact formula that makes up a receiver's ability to separate, here's a look at some of the key ingredients:
There's probably no formula because it doesn't really matter. Let me tell you how the passing game works. The defense, if in a zone, rolls coverage to where most receivers are. Not all receivers are going to seperate on any given play. The QB reads the defense and hits the open guy.
So, seperation, as you call it, is really just the ability to run.
Wonderful. I can see how someone would think that a receiver is defined by his ability to run while playing football. But lets see some of Todd McShay's fancy terms for this skill:
1. Initial burst
2. Recognition/instincts
3. Change-of-direction skills
4. Competitiveness
Initial burst, you mean running Todd?
I personally think recognition and insticts are the most important trait for a successful receiver. Hey kiddies, you know how you develop recognition and insticts? Stay in school. Play your senior year. Learn something. College is fun. Enjoy it. Become a better NFL prospect in the process.
Change of direction skills is completely useless and arbitrary. Unless you are talking about run after catch skills. Then its just arbitrary, but can have a conceivable use.
Competitveness is not a possible criteria to get open. It just isn't.
Jerry Rice will forever be the ultimate example of this attribute. A relentless approach to the craft -- both in practice and in games -- allowed Rice to overcome below-average speed throughout his brilliant 20-year career.
Joe Montana, Steve Young, and Rich Gannon may have had something to do with this too Todd.
This is a nice gritty article from Todd McShay with great upside and a high ceiling to allow for a lot of potential growth. What it's missing in facts and analysis (everything), it makes up for with initial burst and competitiveness.
Thursday, April 12, 2007
The Moment You've All Been Waiting For
Todd McShay and me in a very one sided debate!
I feel like a fighter right before the heavyweight title.
Heeeelllllloooo, Todd.
Todd McShay: Hello, SportsNation. Less than three weeks until the draft and it's still snowing in many parts of the country... We might as well talk shop, right?
Colby (South Jersey): In your latest mock you have Quinn going to the Vikings at the seven spot. I've also heard names like Peterson or Ginn Jr. Sounds like they are focusing on the offense in the draft. What do you think their biggest need is and can they compete if they fill it?
SportsNation Todd McShay: I would rank the Vikings needs as follows: WR, DE, CB, TE, QB. If Quinn falls to them at No. 7 I think they could take advantage of the value. Otherwise, I think they'd be better served addressing some of those other needs. There isn't a WR worth drafting at No. 7 after C. Johnson, and the same can be said for DE after Gaines Adams. My first priority would be to trade out. If they can't get a deal done (which is more likely than not), I think they should take DS LaRon Landry or CB Leon Hall.
Todd, I paid big money to your employer so I could hear you do idiotic and baseless things like deem Brady Quinn overrated, and now I hear some blasphemy like the Vikings could actually get value for him at seven?
For shame, Todd!
But at least you didn't disappoint me with that list of needs. That, my friend, is some freakin horrible analysis. Good work.
The Vikings don't need a DE. They took DEs in the first round in 04 and 05. These guys have turned out to be very good players, but you wouldn't know that because you are too busy getting your panties in a bunch over sack totals. It isn't going to matter who is playing WR if Tavaris Jackson is their QB. You could have gotten away easy if you just said "they could really use a QB (factual statement)", instead of some garbage about how they should be looking for WR, DE, CB, TE, and QB IN THAT ORDER DAMN IT!
Seriously though, if the Vikings land Quinn at 7, it would be the duty of Jerry Angelo, Ted Thompson, and Matt Millen to track down Phil Savage and rip his vocal chords out as punishment for passing on Quinn. Millen would deserve the same treatment, but lets face it, the Bears and Packers are much better off as long as Millen calls the shots in Detroit.
Rob, Somewhere,TN: Am I the only one thinking that the Raiders may be trying to move down to #4 and take Quinn?
SportsNation Todd McShay: That's a bad idea. If you can get an elite WR like Calvin Johnson or an exceptionally gifted QB like Russell, why trade down to take an overrated QB like Quinn?
Oh Todd, no you didn't.
First of all, the correct answer to the question would be yes, Rob from somewhere in Tennessee is the only one thinking the Raiders might do that.
But you, Todd McShay, are bad at your job. See, the whole idea behind a scout is to actively try to do everything necessary to discover who the best prospects really are. Not to try to justify hype by falling in love with skills that Russell shares with Leaf and Akili Smith and Cade McNown and all those busts.
Also, you are getting paid a king's ransom to have a TV/Interweb Chat gig where you answer people's questions with some degree of accuracy. Your job is NOT to perpetuate the hype of Russell/Johnson, it's to dismiss it when it isn't necessary.
Calvin Johnson: 34 NCAA Starts
JaMarcus Russell: 29 NCAA Starts
Dwayne Bowe: 35 NCAA Starts
Brady Quinn: 45 NCAA Starts
Then again, if anyone in the league didn't think Todd McShay was a lazy-ass, worthless scout, he'd be working for a team right now and not ESPN.
Darryl (Oakland, CA):: I've seen that Trent Edwards has moved up to either the Raiders or the Lions in the second round. If the Raiders take Calvin Johnson, will the first pick of the second round be Edwards?
SportsNation Todd McShay: I've heard some of the same rumors, Darryl. There are also rumblings of the Lions' interest in Edwards with the second pick of the second round. I'll be honest; I like Edwards as a developmental type, but not that early. I still think Drew Stanton has better pro potential.
You know, Trent Edwards has college stats, Todd. It really wouldn't be that hard to do some background research since its only your freakin job.
WTF is a developmental type? Is that code for "not a good prospect, but if you let him reach his prime before he reaches the field, he might appear better than he really is"? Because if so, that would be a point worth making.
Somehow, I get the feeling that Todd McShay actually believes that with the right coaching and the same damn amount of practice time as every other player in the league, Trent Edwards will actually exceed his career path! Woot, he developed differently than every other QB in the history of the game! I'm Todd McShay bitches!
Josh (Philly): Todd-This isn't a "why do you hate on Notre Dame" type of question, but what about Quinn's game makes you so quick to slap the "overrated" label on the guy? I know he underperformed in big games in college, but couldn't that just as easily have been a product of the quality of the talent around him when matched up against teams with elite talent?
SportsNation Todd McShay: I think Quinn is a good prospect and he's worth a mid-to-late first round pick in most drafts. But I don't think he's worth a top-five pick. In addition to his big game woes, he's not accurate enough for my liking. I think playing at ND and under Weis, as well as being a part of a 2007 class that lacks a lot of elite prospects, has really skewed Quinn's value.
Josh in Philly, I love you.
Todd, why don't you explain to the nice people why Quinn projects as a mid round pick and Russell as a top 5 pick guy?
Russells Draft Projection Comparibles:
1. Rex Grossman
2. Kellen Clemens
3. Cade McNown
Quinn's Draft Projection Comparibles:
1. Donovan McNabb
2. Carson Palmer
3. Jay Cutler
Todd McShay has access to the same information I do. Either he hates Notre Dame and has a bias against Quinn, or he's a lazy scout who does little actual work and gets paid a lot to be wrong.
I'm betting on the latter.
And WTF does a statement like Charlie Weis "has really skewed Quinn's value" mean? Holy fuckin a Todd McShay, you are both biased AND a moron. Do you really expect Quinn to reject the teachings of Charlie Weis once he hits the pro level?
Kevin (Berkeley): I've heard rumors that because of "character issues" and fumbling issues, Marshawn Lynch's stock has dropped to late-first round status. Is there any truth to this? Also, when exactly will Daymeion Hughes get drafted? I haven't seen two mock drafts where he goes in the same place.
SportsNation Todd McShay: The character stuff is hard to assess on Lynch because he was never charged or convicted with anything, although his ex-girlfriend did get a restraining order against him. I think he could drop to the bottom-half of the first round, but more due to his fumbling issues, nagging back injury and concerns about his inexperience as a fulltime load-carrying back.
You are ignorant. You don't need a conviction to have character issues. You need a conviction to be a criminal. I think you are confusing the two terms.
Someone will draft Marshawn Lynch in the top half of the round for need, I promise you.
J (Maryland): Hey Todd, do the Ravens draft a QB?
SportsNation Todd McShay: At some point in the middle rounds it would be a good idea. Someone with developmental upside such as Beck or Houston's Kevin Kolb. But they have other needs to address early on, including CB, OT and LB.
Developmental, developmental, developmental, upside, upside, upside. I, too, Todd, think that the Ravens would be better off with the next Giovanni Carmazzi or Chris Redman than with someone at another position who can actually play in this league.
Oh wait, no I don't. I just don't like the Ravens all that much.
Aric- Columbus,Oh: Todd, people are saying the Browns should draft Troy in the Second Round because he is a town favorite and compares him to Drew Brees. What do you think?
SportsNation Todd McShay: Most importantly, the Browns aren't going to draft a player because he's a hometown favorite. It just doesn't work that way.
McShay-English translation: Brady Quinn is overrated.
You know what, this debate is over.
I feel like a fighter right before the heavyweight title.
Heeeelllllloooo, Todd.
Todd McShay: Hello, SportsNation. Less than three weeks until the draft and it's still snowing in many parts of the country... We might as well talk shop, right?
Colby (South Jersey): In your latest mock you have Quinn going to the Vikings at the seven spot. I've also heard names like Peterson or Ginn Jr. Sounds like they are focusing on the offense in the draft. What do you think their biggest need is and can they compete if they fill it?
SportsNation Todd McShay: I would rank the Vikings needs as follows: WR, DE, CB, TE, QB. If Quinn falls to them at No. 7 I think they could take advantage of the value. Otherwise, I think they'd be better served addressing some of those other needs. There isn't a WR worth drafting at No. 7 after C. Johnson, and the same can be said for DE after Gaines Adams. My first priority would be to trade out. If they can't get a deal done (which is more likely than not), I think they should take DS LaRon Landry or CB Leon Hall.
Todd, I paid big money to your employer so I could hear you do idiotic and baseless things like deem Brady Quinn overrated, and now I hear some blasphemy like the Vikings could actually get value for him at seven?
For shame, Todd!
But at least you didn't disappoint me with that list of needs. That, my friend, is some freakin horrible analysis. Good work.
The Vikings don't need a DE. They took DEs in the first round in 04 and 05. These guys have turned out to be very good players, but you wouldn't know that because you are too busy getting your panties in a bunch over sack totals. It isn't going to matter who is playing WR if Tavaris Jackson is their QB. You could have gotten away easy if you just said "they could really use a QB (factual statement)", instead of some garbage about how they should be looking for WR, DE, CB, TE, and QB IN THAT ORDER DAMN IT!
Seriously though, if the Vikings land Quinn at 7, it would be the duty of Jerry Angelo, Ted Thompson, and Matt Millen to track down Phil Savage and rip his vocal chords out as punishment for passing on Quinn. Millen would deserve the same treatment, but lets face it, the Bears and Packers are much better off as long as Millen calls the shots in Detroit.
Rob, Somewhere,TN: Am I the only one thinking that the Raiders may be trying to move down to #4 and take Quinn?
SportsNation Todd McShay: That's a bad idea. If you can get an elite WR like Calvin Johnson or an exceptionally gifted QB like Russell, why trade down to take an overrated QB like Quinn?
Oh Todd, no you didn't.
First of all, the correct answer to the question would be yes, Rob from somewhere in Tennessee is the only one thinking the Raiders might do that.
But you, Todd McShay, are bad at your job. See, the whole idea behind a scout is to actively try to do everything necessary to discover who the best prospects really are. Not to try to justify hype by falling in love with skills that Russell shares with Leaf and Akili Smith and Cade McNown and all those busts.
Also, you are getting paid a king's ransom to have a TV/Interweb Chat gig where you answer people's questions with some degree of accuracy. Your job is NOT to perpetuate the hype of Russell/Johnson, it's to dismiss it when it isn't necessary.
Calvin Johnson: 34 NCAA Starts
JaMarcus Russell: 29 NCAA Starts
Dwayne Bowe: 35 NCAA Starts
Brady Quinn: 45 NCAA Starts
Then again, if anyone in the league didn't think Todd McShay was a lazy-ass, worthless scout, he'd be working for a team right now and not ESPN.
Darryl (Oakland, CA):: I've seen that Trent Edwards has moved up to either the Raiders or the Lions in the second round. If the Raiders take Calvin Johnson, will the first pick of the second round be Edwards?
SportsNation Todd McShay: I've heard some of the same rumors, Darryl. There are also rumblings of the Lions' interest in Edwards with the second pick of the second round. I'll be honest; I like Edwards as a developmental type, but not that early. I still think Drew Stanton has better pro potential.
You know, Trent Edwards has college stats, Todd. It really wouldn't be that hard to do some background research since its only your freakin job.
WTF is a developmental type? Is that code for "not a good prospect, but if you let him reach his prime before he reaches the field, he might appear better than he really is"? Because if so, that would be a point worth making.
Somehow, I get the feeling that Todd McShay actually believes that with the right coaching and the same damn amount of practice time as every other player in the league, Trent Edwards will actually exceed his career path! Woot, he developed differently than every other QB in the history of the game! I'm Todd McShay bitches!
Josh (Philly): Todd-This isn't a "why do you hate on Notre Dame" type of question, but what about Quinn's game makes you so quick to slap the "overrated" label on the guy? I know he underperformed in big games in college, but couldn't that just as easily have been a product of the quality of the talent around him when matched up against teams with elite talent?
SportsNation Todd McShay: I think Quinn is a good prospect and he's worth a mid-to-late first round pick in most drafts. But I don't think he's worth a top-five pick. In addition to his big game woes, he's not accurate enough for my liking. I think playing at ND and under Weis, as well as being a part of a 2007 class that lacks a lot of elite prospects, has really skewed Quinn's value.
Josh in Philly, I love you.
Todd, why don't you explain to the nice people why Quinn projects as a mid round pick and Russell as a top 5 pick guy?
Russells Draft Projection Comparibles:
1. Rex Grossman
2. Kellen Clemens
3. Cade McNown
Quinn's Draft Projection Comparibles:
1. Donovan McNabb
2. Carson Palmer
3. Jay Cutler
Todd McShay has access to the same information I do. Either he hates Notre Dame and has a bias against Quinn, or he's a lazy scout who does little actual work and gets paid a lot to be wrong.
I'm betting on the latter.
And WTF does a statement like Charlie Weis "has really skewed Quinn's value" mean? Holy fuckin a Todd McShay, you are both biased AND a moron. Do you really expect Quinn to reject the teachings of Charlie Weis once he hits the pro level?
Kevin (Berkeley): I've heard rumors that because of "character issues" and fumbling issues, Marshawn Lynch's stock has dropped to late-first round status. Is there any truth to this? Also, when exactly will Daymeion Hughes get drafted? I haven't seen two mock drafts where he goes in the same place.
SportsNation Todd McShay: The character stuff is hard to assess on Lynch because he was never charged or convicted with anything, although his ex-girlfriend did get a restraining order against him. I think he could drop to the bottom-half of the first round, but more due to his fumbling issues, nagging back injury and concerns about his inexperience as a fulltime load-carrying back.
You are ignorant. You don't need a conviction to have character issues. You need a conviction to be a criminal. I think you are confusing the two terms.
Someone will draft Marshawn Lynch in the top half of the round for need, I promise you.
J (Maryland): Hey Todd, do the Ravens draft a QB?
SportsNation Todd McShay: At some point in the middle rounds it would be a good idea. Someone with developmental upside such as Beck or Houston's Kevin Kolb. But they have other needs to address early on, including CB, OT and LB.
Developmental, developmental, developmental, upside, upside, upside. I, too, Todd, think that the Ravens would be better off with the next Giovanni Carmazzi or Chris Redman than with someone at another position who can actually play in this league.
Oh wait, no I don't. I just don't like the Ravens all that much.
Aric- Columbus,Oh: Todd, people are saying the Browns should draft Troy in the Second Round because he is a town favorite and compares him to Drew Brees. What do you think?
SportsNation Todd McShay: Most importantly, the Browns aren't going to draft a player because he's a hometown favorite. It just doesn't work that way.
McShay-English translation: Brady Quinn is overrated.
You know what, this debate is over.
Sunday, April 1, 2007
Even Pete Prisco can be right sometimes
Keeping with the April 1 theme, check out this article.
Hey, we aren't afraid to give credit where it is due. It's not like theres a lot of it to give.
Some of the comments are hilarious. Gotta love the sportsline posters.
From the article:
Oakland Raiders coach Lane Kiffin made a good point this week. He said Russell's big arm is great and all, but also asked how many times quarterbacks throw the ball 70 yards in a game? Answering his own question, he said twice.
Chances the Raiders make Brady Quinn the first pick: 51%
Chances the Raiders make JaMarcus Russell the first pick: 48%
Chances the Raiders forget when draft day is: Scary
Hey, we aren't afraid to give credit where it is due. It's not like theres a lot of it to give.
Some of the comments are hilarious. Gotta love the sportsline posters.
From the article:
Oakland Raiders coach Lane Kiffin made a good point this week. He said Russell's big arm is great and all, but also asked how many times quarterbacks throw the ball 70 yards in a game? Answering his own question, he said twice.
Chances the Raiders make Brady Quinn the first pick: 51%
Chances the Raiders make JaMarcus Russell the first pick: 48%
Chances the Raiders forget when draft day is: Scary
Turn Off ESPN presents an honest evaluation of JaMarcus Russell!
April Fools!!
Tom Martinez knows better. He knows that an arm does not make a quarterback. He knows that Tom Brady, his most famous protégé, won three Super Bowls because he respects the finer points of the job. And he knows that a quarterback should never, ever be asked to roll to one side of the field and then throw to the other. It's inefficient, mechanically unsound, such a scandalous misuse of momentum that a 10th-grade physics student would flag the play.
Yes, this is all quite accurate.
But Martinez couldn't help himself. JaMarcus Russell's arm is that seductive.
Once again, JaMarcus Russell's arm inspires the ignorance of all general football laws. That is a really special arm that's about to lead him to a Grossman-esque career.
When it came time to create a list of plays for Russell to run in front of dozens of NFL scouts and executives last month, Martinez went with the taboo as their grand finale. Russell rolled right, and his receiver broke that way, too, before switching direction.
"JaMarcus threw it 70 yards and completed it," Martinez said. "It was unbelievable, unbelievable. You could hear this "Ahhhh" coming from all the NFL people."
Read that quote again. Now I want you to tell me that Tom Martinez is not just another fanboy.
He wore a mischievous grin when he described the play, still exhilarated that Russell could do something so wrong so right. In his 32 years as a coach at the College of San Mateo and endless summers tutoring quarterbacks at football camps, Martinez has worked with some of the biggest names in the business -- John Elway, future Heisman winner Gino Torretta, USC's Rob Johnson and Brady, who attended his first Martinez camp at age 13 and still calls on him for help with his mechanics. New Englanders view Martinez as something of a wizard.
Torretta and Johnson. If Russell could only be that good...
But the coach has never seen anyone quite like the 21-year-old favorite to become the No. 1 pick in this month's NFL draft or done anything like the prep work that he performed for Russell.
Remember when Kyle Boller took a knee on the 50 yard line and consistnetly threw balls though the uprights, wowing everyone there with his arm strength. I mean, it seemed at the time that taking a player based solely on physical skills was foolish. Then we saw it all play out for Kyle Boller. So what's going to be the excuse when Russell is predictably average. He was in Oakland? Wrong, wrong, wrong. Scouts have learned that it is foolish to project a QB to the NFL based on the variable of Arm Strength. Yet, they seem to be unable to control their hormones every time a guy like Russell roles around. Who's paying these guys. Quotes like these should be grounds for dismissal so you don't continue to make the same mistakes year after year.
At Athletes' Performance, a specialized training camp in Tempe, Ariz., Martinez joined a team grooming Russell to take his place atop the draft. The chief competition, Brady Quinn of Notre Dame, is more polished and experienced than Russell, with four years as a college starter as opposed to two, yet he showed up in Tempe for some buffing of his own.
YES!! YES!! Four years of college compared to two. THIS IS WHAT MATTERS. This is it. Build on this point. This is the only reason that Brady Quinn will be a better NFL QB then Jamarcus Russell. Gwen Knapp, please oh please don't let throw this point out here without comparing Russell to other first round picks who started less than 30 games in college, and Quinn to other guys who started 45 plus. Just do it, I beg you!
Russell's size makes him both alluring and unnerving, creating doubts about his agility. He can probably absorb a hit very well, but will he lumber around in the pocket, unable to keep up with the speed of the NFL game? At 6-foot-6, he looks more like a tight end than a quarterback, and he reportedly carried as much as 265 pounds when he led LSU past Quinn's Irish in the Sugar Bowl. His fitness advisers in Arizona peeled close to 10 pounds off him, revealing a sleeker model. Martinez immediately went to work on Russell's feet.
GAAHHHHHH!!! NOOOO. Ah, the AGONY!!
I hate bad sportswriting.
In fact, he wanted to put all of Russell's presumed weaknesses on display. Agents create scripts for these events, and they are usually written to obscure areas of doubt. Martinez reasoned that the scouts and coaches would eventually, in private workouts, ask Russell to perform drills that emphasized perceived shortcomings. He wanted the script to answer the big questions, to assure the scouts that Russell had nothing to hide.
Did Martinez find the Denver Broncos' defense and put them out there against the Oakland Raiders offense plus Russell at QB and let JaMarucus strut his stuff. If he didn't do this, I'm really not sure how much of his weaknesses were really on display. JaMarcus' weakness is his inexperience, just like any other QB who has ever come out early. By the time he gets to a point where he makes up the gap between himself and Quinn's college experience, he's probably already going to be a backup somewhere in this league. He's never going to catch Quinn in experience unless Quinn sustaines a multiple year injury.
When you really think about it, making a guy with 2 years of college experience your NFL Quarterback is really no different than a fortune 500 corporation giving a high ranking managerial job to a person who left school half way through his/her college degree to "go pro". I mean, it very well could work out for you. But you try to tell me that the same person would NOT be a more efficent worker if he/she stayed and finished his/her degree.
Now tell me that Russell will be better than Quinn.
By coming out early, Russell already put the sentence on his NFL Career. I'm guessing sometime in his first 4 seasons, he will post a respectable set of numbers, and a bunch of talking heads will talk about how JaMarcus Russell has "arrived". The next year those numbers will completely regress and the only person the mediots won't blame for the regression is Russell himself.
I guess it can be debated if Russell goes number one overall whether or not it was worth it to come out. On one hand, he could have been a bona fide stud QB had he stayed in college another year and produced. On the other, he likely would not be the No. 1 pick in a draft that includes Brian Brohm. Then again, he shouldn't be the No. 1 pick in a draft that involves Quinn, but Brohm could be even better than Quinn.
The Raiders, current owners of the top pick, recently invited Martinez for what was reported to be an interview to become the team's quarterbacks coach. Martinez read it more as "a chance to exchange information," and he filled them in on what he had learned about Russell.
If the Raiders took the opinion of a guy with a clear interest in the matter with any more than a grain of salt, there is no hope for them as an organzation.
Russell's soft-spoken personality? "He's very quiet, very respectful," Martinez said, "He doesn't say much, but he's always taking things in. You can see him sizing things up and figuring people out."
Russell's background? Martinez believes that any NFL executive who meets with Russell's relatives will gain confidence in the decision to draft him. "He has a very grounded family," Martinez said. "They're all squared away. They're not buying into the fanfare around this."
Now, Gwen Knapp, you've discarded all analysis to turn this into a puff piece. Congratulations.
The other information he would like to impart would apply to any 21-year-old. Russell needs stability, continuity on the coaching staff. Martinez once heard Jim Plunkett describe a harrowing period in his career when the quarterbacks coach changed four times in four years. He doesn't want one of the most prodigious talents the game has ever seen to be squandered.
Because Jim Plunkett's career ended just so horribly unfufilled.
Martinez has seen all of Russell's flaws up close, and he still finds himself amazed. He says that Russell, fulfilling a typical scout's request, can stand flat-footed at the goal line and, without moving his body for the necessary torque, throw a ball 77 yards downfield.
That's nothing. Did I tell you about the time that Kyle Boller threw a ball really far from his knees. Russell ain't got nothing on Boller.
He can also sit at the opponent's 40-yard line and throw a ball through the uprights of the goalpost. Cal's Kyle Boller once asserted that he could throw the same pass from the 50 while on his knees. But Russell does it on his backside, relying entirely on his arm. Martinez fondly calls this maneuver "the butt throw."
Shit. This is the most unbelieveable paragraph in professional sportswriting. You are comparing (correctly) JaMarcus Russell to Kyle Boller in a puff piece. DO YOU HAVE ANY IDEA HOW RETARDED THAT IS! How can you make this comparision and NOT REALIZE THAT KYLE BOLLER IS A HORRIBLE QUARTERBACK!!
Martinez is a technical wizard, so he probably shouldn't be so impressed. But he can't help himself. Two weeks as JaMarcus Russell's coach turned him into a fanboy.
Okay, so in reality the article says "fan", not "fanboy". I just thought it rolled off the tounge better this way.
Tom Martinez knows better. He knows that an arm does not make a quarterback. He knows that Tom Brady, his most famous protégé, won three Super Bowls because he respects the finer points of the job. And he knows that a quarterback should never, ever be asked to roll to one side of the field and then throw to the other. It's inefficient, mechanically unsound, such a scandalous misuse of momentum that a 10th-grade physics student would flag the play.
Yes, this is all quite accurate.
But Martinez couldn't help himself. JaMarcus Russell's arm is that seductive.
Once again, JaMarcus Russell's arm inspires the ignorance of all general football laws. That is a really special arm that's about to lead him to a Grossman-esque career.
When it came time to create a list of plays for Russell to run in front of dozens of NFL scouts and executives last month, Martinez went with the taboo as their grand finale. Russell rolled right, and his receiver broke that way, too, before switching direction.
"JaMarcus threw it 70 yards and completed it," Martinez said. "It was unbelievable, unbelievable. You could hear this "Ahhhh" coming from all the NFL people."
Read that quote again. Now I want you to tell me that Tom Martinez is not just another fanboy.
He wore a mischievous grin when he described the play, still exhilarated that Russell could do something so wrong so right. In his 32 years as a coach at the College of San Mateo and endless summers tutoring quarterbacks at football camps, Martinez has worked with some of the biggest names in the business -- John Elway, future Heisman winner Gino Torretta, USC's Rob Johnson and Brady, who attended his first Martinez camp at age 13 and still calls on him for help with his mechanics. New Englanders view Martinez as something of a wizard.
Torretta and Johnson. If Russell could only be that good...
But the coach has never seen anyone quite like the 21-year-old favorite to become the No. 1 pick in this month's NFL draft or done anything like the prep work that he performed for Russell.
Remember when Kyle Boller took a knee on the 50 yard line and consistnetly threw balls though the uprights, wowing everyone there with his arm strength. I mean, it seemed at the time that taking a player based solely on physical skills was foolish. Then we saw it all play out for Kyle Boller. So what's going to be the excuse when Russell is predictably average. He was in Oakland? Wrong, wrong, wrong. Scouts have learned that it is foolish to project a QB to the NFL based on the variable of Arm Strength. Yet, they seem to be unable to control their hormones every time a guy like Russell roles around. Who's paying these guys. Quotes like these should be grounds for dismissal so you don't continue to make the same mistakes year after year.
At Athletes' Performance, a specialized training camp in Tempe, Ariz., Martinez joined a team grooming Russell to take his place atop the draft. The chief competition, Brady Quinn of Notre Dame, is more polished and experienced than Russell, with four years as a college starter as opposed to two, yet he showed up in Tempe for some buffing of his own.
YES!! YES!! Four years of college compared to two. THIS IS WHAT MATTERS. This is it. Build on this point. This is the only reason that Brady Quinn will be a better NFL QB then Jamarcus Russell. Gwen Knapp, please oh please don't let throw this point out here without comparing Russell to other first round picks who started less than 30 games in college, and Quinn to other guys who started 45 plus. Just do it, I beg you!
Russell's size makes him both alluring and unnerving, creating doubts about his agility. He can probably absorb a hit very well, but will he lumber around in the pocket, unable to keep up with the speed of the NFL game? At 6-foot-6, he looks more like a tight end than a quarterback, and he reportedly carried as much as 265 pounds when he led LSU past Quinn's Irish in the Sugar Bowl. His fitness advisers in Arizona peeled close to 10 pounds off him, revealing a sleeker model. Martinez immediately went to work on Russell's feet.
GAAHHHHHH!!! NOOOO. Ah, the AGONY!!
I hate bad sportswriting.
In fact, he wanted to put all of Russell's presumed weaknesses on display. Agents create scripts for these events, and they are usually written to obscure areas of doubt. Martinez reasoned that the scouts and coaches would eventually, in private workouts, ask Russell to perform drills that emphasized perceived shortcomings. He wanted the script to answer the big questions, to assure the scouts that Russell had nothing to hide.
Did Martinez find the Denver Broncos' defense and put them out there against the Oakland Raiders offense plus Russell at QB and let JaMarucus strut his stuff. If he didn't do this, I'm really not sure how much of his weaknesses were really on display. JaMarcus' weakness is his inexperience, just like any other QB who has ever come out early. By the time he gets to a point where he makes up the gap between himself and Quinn's college experience, he's probably already going to be a backup somewhere in this league. He's never going to catch Quinn in experience unless Quinn sustaines a multiple year injury.
When you really think about it, making a guy with 2 years of college experience your NFL Quarterback is really no different than a fortune 500 corporation giving a high ranking managerial job to a person who left school half way through his/her college degree to "go pro". I mean, it very well could work out for you. But you try to tell me that the same person would NOT be a more efficent worker if he/she stayed and finished his/her degree.
Now tell me that Russell will be better than Quinn.
By coming out early, Russell already put the sentence on his NFL Career. I'm guessing sometime in his first 4 seasons, he will post a respectable set of numbers, and a bunch of talking heads will talk about how JaMarcus Russell has "arrived". The next year those numbers will completely regress and the only person the mediots won't blame for the regression is Russell himself.
I guess it can be debated if Russell goes number one overall whether or not it was worth it to come out. On one hand, he could have been a bona fide stud QB had he stayed in college another year and produced. On the other, he likely would not be the No. 1 pick in a draft that includes Brian Brohm. Then again, he shouldn't be the No. 1 pick in a draft that involves Quinn, but Brohm could be even better than Quinn.
The Raiders, current owners of the top pick, recently invited Martinez for what was reported to be an interview to become the team's quarterbacks coach. Martinez read it more as "a chance to exchange information," and he filled them in on what he had learned about Russell.
If the Raiders took the opinion of a guy with a clear interest in the matter with any more than a grain of salt, there is no hope for them as an organzation.
Russell's soft-spoken personality? "He's very quiet, very respectful," Martinez said, "He doesn't say much, but he's always taking things in. You can see him sizing things up and figuring people out."
Russell's background? Martinez believes that any NFL executive who meets with Russell's relatives will gain confidence in the decision to draft him. "He has a very grounded family," Martinez said. "They're all squared away. They're not buying into the fanfare around this."
Now, Gwen Knapp, you've discarded all analysis to turn this into a puff piece. Congratulations.
The other information he would like to impart would apply to any 21-year-old. Russell needs stability, continuity on the coaching staff. Martinez once heard Jim Plunkett describe a harrowing period in his career when the quarterbacks coach changed four times in four years. He doesn't want one of the most prodigious talents the game has ever seen to be squandered.
Because Jim Plunkett's career ended just so horribly unfufilled.
Martinez has seen all of Russell's flaws up close, and he still finds himself amazed. He says that Russell, fulfilling a typical scout's request, can stand flat-footed at the goal line and, without moving his body for the necessary torque, throw a ball 77 yards downfield.
That's nothing. Did I tell you about the time that Kyle Boller threw a ball really far from his knees. Russell ain't got nothing on Boller.
He can also sit at the opponent's 40-yard line and throw a ball through the uprights of the goalpost. Cal's Kyle Boller once asserted that he could throw the same pass from the 50 while on his knees. But Russell does it on his backside, relying entirely on his arm. Martinez fondly calls this maneuver "the butt throw."
Shit. This is the most unbelieveable paragraph in professional sportswriting. You are comparing (correctly) JaMarcus Russell to Kyle Boller in a puff piece. DO YOU HAVE ANY IDEA HOW RETARDED THAT IS! How can you make this comparision and NOT REALIZE THAT KYLE BOLLER IS A HORRIBLE QUARTERBACK!!
Martinez is a technical wizard, so he probably shouldn't be so impressed. But he can't help himself. Two weeks as JaMarcus Russell's coach turned him into a fanboy.
Okay, so in reality the article says "fan", not "fanboy". I just thought it rolled off the tounge better this way.
Tuesday, March 20, 2007
It's Draft Season Everybody!
This time, Chris Low goes down on Jamarcus Russell.
"I've always believed that you measure a quarterback on his bad days, not his good days," said Jimbo Fisher
You're going to get some real shitty numbers if you do that, Jimbo.
"When you're not having your best day, how do you respond? Can you stay into it and manage the game? JaMarcus knew he was a great player with great ability -- and he also knew, if something went wrong or if he messed something up, that he would usually get another chance.
The enormity of it all has yet to sink in, and those who've known him since he was old enough to grip a football aren't a bit surprised.
But, hey, that's vintage JaMarcus Russell.
I, for one, think it's great that Chris Low has such a special, special relationship with JaMarcus Russell. I am sure that Mr. Low will abuse his special relationship to find a fitting definition to the term "vintage JaMarcus Russell" which he will share with us in this piece. I am not completely wasting my time by reading this because this is not going to be just another JaMarcus Russell puff piece.
Ready?
Down two touchdowns or up two touchdowns, he's the same quarterback. Sitting in the pocket with all kinds of time or throwing with guys hanging all over him, he is convinced that his next play will be his best play. Soaking up a record-setting day or suffering through a forgettable day, he still wants the ball at the end.
Basically he does...what every other draft eligible QB does. Good, because for a second there..."I've always believed that you measure a quarterback on his bad days, not his good days," said Jimbo Fisher
You're going to get some real shitty numbers if you do that, Jimbo.
"When you're not having your best day, how do you respond? Can you stay into it and manage the game? JaMarcus knew he was a great player with great ability -- and he also knew, if something went wrong or if he messed something up, that he would usually get another chance.
"If he got that ball at the end of the game, he was going to beat your tail -- and he knew it."
Most QBs strive to lock that game up before that last drive so that they can take a knee. But not JaMarcus Russell. He's got a method already.
Similarly, Russell doesn't flinch at the thought of being the No. 1 overall pick in April's NFL draft. The Oakland Raiders are eyeing him closely with that first selection. Russell has been in Arizona training with some of the best receivers in the draft, including former teammate Dwyane Bowe, Tennessee's Robert Meachem and Southern Cal's Dwayne Jarrett.
I have a sinking feeling that the Raiders no longer eye anyone closely. Because if they did, they probably wouldn't be looking at JaMarcus Russell. But I didn't know he was working out in Arizona with a bunch of other draft prospects! This changes everything!
His take on the whole process?
"I'm just going to chill," said Russell, whose cool demeanor has been mistaken for nonchalance more than a few times during his career.
This is the single greatest piece of information I have ever read.
Never a big talker, Russell really doesn't need to. His teammates say there is a quiet confidence about him that is infectious.
"You just learn to trust that he's going to make big plays," said Bowe, who jokes that his hands are still swollen from catching 95 mph fastballs from the 6-foot-5, 265-pound Russell. "He never talked a whole lot about it. He just went out there and did it. That's why so many respected him. When he's out there, there's no doubt in your mind that we were going to win the game."
You play for LSU. You are going to win the game most of the time because you are almost always the best team on the field. JaMarcus Russell was a part of this equation, but not the entire reason for your success.
Also, way to sneak in a comment about how great his arm is, Chris Low. You'd thought you'd slide that one by us. You dog.
Russell, 25-4 as a starter at LSU, engineered eight comeback victories in the fourth quarter during his career. He capped a scintillating close to the 2006 season by outplaying Brady Quinn and passing for a career-high 332 yards in a 41-14 drubbing of Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl.
1) That was one game. I don't care if it was the Sugar Bowl. One game out of 29 starts (remember this figure, I promise to explain it's significance).
2) Notre Dame's defense blew in 2006. LSU's defense was dominant. JaMarcus Russell should have had the better game. It was to be expected. If Quinn had had the better game, there would have been an upset and JaMarcus Russell would be a 4th round pick right now.
3) The Sugar Bowl was nothing if not a home game for LSU
4) 41-14 is how the game ended, but does not tell the whole story. It was a one TD game at half, tied late in the first half.
The Sugar Bowl is not a great argument as to why JaMarcus Russell should be the first pick in April's draft.
Suddenly, Russell was the most coveted quarterback out there, and the questions about his decision-making and his tendency to rely on his big right arm had been reduced to a murmur.
"What a great QB that Russell is. Look at how he manipulates Terrail Lambert to fall down and Chiedum Ndukwe to completely forget his assignment." Look, he makes one read and throws a touchdown. What decision making! A lot of guys would have passed up that easy touchdown, but not this guy!"
"It's always been my dream to go high in the draft. But to be the first pick in the draft, that's crazy. I still won't believe it until it happens."
You and me both, JaMarcus. You and me both.
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