Showing posts with label todd mcshay. Show all posts
Showing posts with label todd mcshay. Show all posts

Thursday, December 11, 2008

Tim Tebow. Heisman Winner. H-Back?

Mel Kiper Jr. on Sports Center today (12/11, bottom half of 2 o'clock EST hour) just suggested taking Tebow in the first two rounds, and then converting him to an H-Back. I don't often agree with Todd McShay, but I have to think that he was on to something when he explained that you probably don't draft an H-Back in the first round, especially when "YOU DON'T EVEN KNOW IF HE CAN CATCH".

Kiper countered that no one knew Antawn Randle El could catch "until the Super Bowl". Redskins fans disagree: they still don't think he can catch.

Monday, April 23, 2007

Mel Kiper Schools Todd McShay

Mel Kiper is owning Todd McShay right now on Sportscenters NFL Draft Squareoff. Among his points:

-McShay puts too much value on big game arguments. Troy Smith and Chris Leak were wonderful in big games, but are bad prospects.

-Kiper has Quinn 5 on his board, McShay has him at 7. Kiper is trying to figure our how the fuck you can possibly feel the 7th guy on your board is overvalued. Kiper says that if McShay really thought Quinn was overvalued, he'd have him at 20-25. McShay actually claims that hes compensating for where Brady Quinn is going to be drafted. On his own personal draft board. I'm now convinced that one of the reasons he sucks so much is that he doesn't actually know what his job is.

-Per Kiper, McShay is too worried about the accuracy issues. They happen.

-The money due to each player is not an argument. You are trying to draft the best player. Worry about the money later.

This is why I love Mel Kiper. Look, the guy has Russell overrated, like a lot of other people. But rather than try to conform to conventional logic, like McShay, if he knew that Russell was bound to be the next Grossman--he'd put him down at 20-25. Because he's whats known as an "honorable draft analyst".

Friday, April 13, 2007

A Bonus Article Tonight for all those Loyal Readers

All 4 of ya.

We are probably going to be doing nothing but draft stuff for the next two weeks in this here space because...well, nobody is going to write anything about anything in football but the draft between now and then.

Anyway, I've noticed that most scouts will overvalue a players' physical tools, especially at the wide receiver position, and then when said player fails to meet expectations they write article about how tough it is to pinpoint receivers.

Well, the truth of the matter is, it's not all that hard. You've just got to look for the guys with the most college experience. Receiver is a very mental position and you want a guy who is aware of what is going on around him playing for you. So if you are going to get behind a WR prospect, get behind a guy like Dwayne Bowe, a highly rated 4 year player (3 year starter) at LSU. You'll be right more often than this guy.

But he will learn his lesson eventually. At least, thats what I thought until I read this article. Now I'm convinced he won't ever learn why he sucks at scouting prospects.

You need to be an INsider to access it. Sorry.

Productive NFL wide receivers come in many different sizes, shapes and speeds. Just take a look at the wide receivers who led the NFL in catches last season. Sure, Houston's Andre Johnson fits the mold as the league leader with 103 receptions. After all, the former No. 3 overall pick (2003) checks in at 6-foot-3 and 219 pounds with 4.4 speed. But how do you explain Mike Furrey, a former undrafted free agent in 2000, hauling in the second-most passes (98) in 2006?

Furrey plays the slot receiver in Mike Martz' offense.

Seriously Todd, no position in football is more affected by what their team is doing around them than the WR position. You probably should know this considering the career path you've chosen.

Andre Johnson caught a bunch O hitches from David Carr. That type of offense is only successful if you turn those hitches into TD's sometimes.

Other productive NFL receivers who slipped in recent drafts include Carolina's Steve Smith (third round, 2001), Seattle's Deion Branch (second round, 2002), Arizona's Anquan Boldin (second round, 2003), the N.Y. Jets' Jerricho Cotchery (fourth round, 2004) and New Orleans' Marques Colston (seventh round, 2006). Meanwhile, David Terrell (2001), Ashley Lelie (2002), Charles Rogers (2003) and Reggie Williams (2004) all looked the part as high draft picks coming out of college but haven't come close to matching production for investment.


Steve Smith, 2 years CC + 2 years at Utah, all starting
Deion Branch, 4 years at Louisville
Anquan Boldin, 4 years at Flordia State (correct me if I'm wrong)
Marques Colston, 4 year starter at Hofstra (also a really lucky find)
Jerrico Cotchery, 3 year starter at NC State, additional PT as a Freshman

David Terrell, 2 1/2 year starter
Ashley Lelie, 3 year starter
Charles Rogers, 3 year starter
Reggie Williams, 2 1/2 year starter

Have you learned anything from this trend? I'm guessing not. Okay then, moving on.

The bottom line is that evaluating wide receiver talent from the college ranks has become maddening for NFL front offices. In my estimation, there are a couple reasons for this. First off, I would argue that quarterback is the only position with more outside factors to skew collegiate production. Secondly, the ability to "separate" is the most important skill for a wide receiver. Unfortunately, it also can be the trickiest to properly evaluate.

Todd McShay actually thinks that QB production is the most skewed position on the entire field. He actually wrote this paragraph. This is hilarious. The easist position where a convienient FORMULA exists to project success to the NFL level is the position that Todd McShay believes is the one that gets skewed the most.

Did I read that correctly?

Secondly, the ability to seperate is not really all that meaningful of a quality for a receiver. The fact that you value it so much completely explains why you can't evaluate them properly. I would think the two biggest sticking points for grading a reciever are:

1) How well he plays the ball (the catch)
2) How well he gets yards after the catch (after the catch)

I would say that MOST receivers are relatively identical in the way they seperate. This probably explains why you can't grade a difference accurately. It's also a huge red flag that you are doing this whole scouting thing improperly, but I'm not one to tell you how to do your job.

Or am I?

While catching the ball is the ultimate goal, a receiver with great hands is rendered useless if he can't get open. It's not difficult to evaluate a receiver's hands, top-end speed and leaping ability. The challenge when evaluating a wide receiver's separation skills is to sift through those potentially deceptive variables, which include his supporting cast, the offensive system he plays in and the types of defensive coverage and level of competition he faces.

It's good that its not that hard to evaluate hands, speed, and leaping ability, because those things really don't matter. I mean, you don't want to draft a guy who drops the ball a lot, but those guys stick out like sore thumbs even at the Collegiate level.

Also, why would supporting cast, offensive system, or coverage (well, I can sort of see coverage) have anything to do with how well a guy seperates. You still haven't even told us why getting seperation is important. You have no credibility whatsoever.

Although there's no exact formula that makes up a receiver's ability to separate, here's a look at some of the key ingredients:

There's probably no formula because it doesn't really matter. Let me tell you how the passing game works. The defense, if in a zone, rolls coverage to where most receivers are. Not all receivers are going to seperate on any given play. The QB reads the defense and hits the open guy.

So, seperation, as you call it, is really just the ability to run.

Wonderful. I can see how someone would think that a receiver is defined by his ability to run while playing football. But lets see some of Todd McShay's fancy terms for this skill:

1. Initial burst
2. Recognition/instincts
3. Change-of-direction skills
4. Competitiveness


Initial burst, you mean running Todd?

I personally think recognition and insticts are the most important trait for a successful receiver. Hey kiddies, you know how you develop recognition and insticts? Stay in school. Play your senior year. Learn something. College is fun. Enjoy it. Become a better NFL prospect in the process.

Change of direction skills is completely useless and arbitrary. Unless you are talking about run after catch skills. Then its just arbitrary, but can have a conceivable use.

Competitveness is not a possible criteria to get open. It just isn't.

Jerry Rice will forever be the ultimate example of this attribute. A relentless approach to the craft -- both in practice and in games -- allowed Rice to overcome below-average speed throughout his brilliant 20-year career.


Joe Montana, Steve Young, and Rich Gannon may have had something to do with this too Todd.

This is a nice gritty article from Todd McShay with great upside and a high ceiling to allow for a lot of potential growth. What it's missing in facts and analysis (everything), it makes up for with initial burst and competitiveness.

Thursday, April 12, 2007

The Moment You've All Been Waiting For

Todd McShay and me in a very one sided debate!

I feel like a fighter right before the heavyweight title.

Heeeelllllloooo, Todd.

Todd McShay: Hello, SportsNation. Less than three weeks until the draft and it's still snowing in many parts of the country... We might as well talk shop, right?


Colby (South Jersey): In your latest mock you have Quinn going to the Vikings at the seven spot. I've also heard names like Peterson or Ginn Jr. Sounds like they are focusing on the offense in the draft. What do you think their biggest need is and can they compete if they fill it?

SportsNation Todd McShay: I would rank the Vikings needs as follows: WR, DE, CB, TE, QB. If Quinn falls to them at No. 7 I think they could take advantage of the value. Otherwise, I think they'd be better served addressing some of those other needs. There isn't a WR worth drafting at No. 7 after C. Johnson, and the same can be said for DE after Gaines Adams. My first priority would be to trade out. If they can't get a deal done (which is more likely than not), I think they should take DS LaRon Landry or CB Leon Hall.


Todd, I paid big money to your employer so I could hear you do idiotic and baseless things like deem Brady Quinn overrated, and now I hear some blasphemy like the Vikings could actually get value for him at seven?

For shame, Todd!

But at least you didn't disappoint me with that list of needs. That, my friend, is some freakin horrible analysis. Good work.

The Vikings don't need a DE. They took DEs in the first round in 04 and 05. These guys have turned out to be very good players, but you wouldn't know that because you are too busy getting your panties in a bunch over sack totals. It isn't going to matter who is playing WR if Tavaris Jackson is their QB. You could have gotten away easy if you just said "they could really use a QB (factual statement)", instead of some garbage about how they should be looking for WR, DE, CB, TE, and QB IN THAT ORDER DAMN IT!

Seriously though, if the Vikings land Quinn at 7, it would be the duty of Jerry Angelo, Ted Thompson, and Matt Millen to track down Phil Savage and rip his vocal chords out as punishment for passing on Quinn. Millen would deserve the same treatment, but lets face it, the Bears and Packers are much better off as long as Millen calls the shots in Detroit.

Rob, Somewhere,TN: Am I the only one thinking that the Raiders may be trying to move down to #4 and take Quinn?

SportsNation Todd McShay: That's a bad idea. If you can get an elite WR like Calvin Johnson or an exceptionally gifted QB like Russell, why trade down to take an overrated QB like Quinn?


Oh Todd, no you didn't.

First of all, the correct answer to the question would be yes, Rob from somewhere in Tennessee is the only one thinking the Raiders might do that.

But you, Todd McShay, are bad at your job. See, the whole idea behind a scout is to actively try to do everything necessary to discover who the best prospects really are. Not to try to justify hype by falling in love with skills that Russell shares with Leaf and Akili Smith and Cade McNown and all those busts.

Also, you are getting paid a king's ransom to have a TV/Interweb Chat gig where you answer people's questions with some degree of accuracy. Your job is NOT to perpetuate the hype of Russell/Johnson, it's to dismiss it when it isn't necessary.

Calvin Johnson: 34 NCAA Starts
JaMarcus Russell: 29 NCAA Starts

Dwayne Bowe: 35 NCAA Starts
Brady Quinn: 45 NCAA Starts

Then again, if anyone in the league didn't think Todd McShay was a lazy-ass, worthless scout, he'd be working for a team right now and not ESPN.

Darryl (Oakland, CA):: I've seen that Trent Edwards has moved up to either the Raiders or the Lions in the second round. If the Raiders take Calvin Johnson, will the first pick of the second round be Edwards?

SportsNation Todd McShay: I've heard some of the same rumors, Darryl. There are also rumblings of the Lions' interest in Edwards with the second pick of the second round. I'll be honest; I like Edwards as a developmental type, but not that early. I still think Drew Stanton has better pro potential.


You know, Trent Edwards has college stats, Todd. It really wouldn't be that hard to do some background research since its only your freakin job.

WTF is a developmental type? Is that code for "not a good prospect, but if you let him reach his prime before he reaches the field, he might appear better than he really is"? Because if so, that would be a point worth making.

Somehow, I get the feeling that Todd McShay actually believes that with the right coaching and the same damn amount of practice time as every other player in the league, Trent Edwards will actually exceed his career path! Woot, he developed differently than every other QB in the history of the game! I'm Todd McShay bitches!

Josh (Philly): Todd-This isn't a "why do you hate on Notre Dame" type of question, but what about Quinn's game makes you so quick to slap the "overrated" label on the guy? I know he underperformed in big games in college, but couldn't that just as easily have been a product of the quality of the talent around him when matched up against teams with elite talent?

SportsNation Todd McShay: I think Quinn is a good prospect and he's worth a mid-to-late first round pick in most drafts. But I don't think he's worth a top-five pick. In addition to his big game woes, he's not accurate enough for my liking. I think playing at ND and under Weis, as well as being a part of a 2007 class that lacks a lot of elite prospects, has really skewed Quinn's value.


Josh in Philly, I love you.

Todd, why don't you explain to the nice people why Quinn projects as a mid round pick and Russell as a top 5 pick guy?

Russells Draft Projection Comparibles:

1. Rex Grossman
2. Kellen Clemens
3. Cade McNown

Quinn's Draft Projection Comparibles:

1. Donovan McNabb
2. Carson Palmer
3. Jay Cutler

Todd McShay has access to the same information I do. Either he hates Notre Dame and has a bias against Quinn, or he's a lazy scout who does little actual work and gets paid a lot to be wrong.

I'm betting on the latter.

And WTF does a statement like Charlie Weis "has really skewed Quinn's value" mean? Holy fuckin a Todd McShay, you are both biased AND a moron. Do you really expect Quinn to reject the teachings of Charlie Weis once he hits the pro level?

Kevin (Berkeley): I've heard rumors that because of "character issues" and fumbling issues, Marshawn Lynch's stock has dropped to late-first round status. Is there any truth to this? Also, when exactly will Daymeion Hughes get drafted? I haven't seen two mock drafts where he goes in the same place.

SportsNation Todd McShay: The character stuff is hard to assess on Lynch because he was never charged or convicted with anything, although his ex-girlfriend did get a restraining order against him. I think he could drop to the bottom-half of the first round, but more due to his fumbling issues, nagging back injury and concerns about his inexperience as a fulltime load-carrying back.


You are ignorant. You don't need a conviction to have character issues. You need a conviction to be a criminal. I think you are confusing the two terms.

Someone will draft Marshawn Lynch in the top half of the round for need, I promise you.

J (Maryland): Hey Todd, do the Ravens draft a QB?

SportsNation Todd McShay: At some point in the middle rounds it would be a good idea. Someone with developmental upside such as Beck or Houston's Kevin Kolb. But they have other needs to address early on, including CB, OT and LB.


Developmental, developmental, developmental, upside, upside, upside. I, too, Todd, think that the Ravens would be better off with the next Giovanni Carmazzi or Chris Redman than with someone at another position who can actually play in this league.

Oh wait, no I don't. I just don't like the Ravens all that much.

Aric- Columbus,Oh: Todd, people are saying the Browns should draft Troy in the Second Round because he is a town favorite and compares him to Drew Brees. What do you think?

SportsNation Todd McShay: Most importantly, the Browns aren't going to draft a player because he's a hometown favorite. It just doesn't work that way.


McShay-English translation: Brady Quinn is overrated.

You know what, this debate is over.