Tuesday, April 17, 2007

The Next Vince Young?

So I'm watching NFL Live and they tease a segment as "another double threat" like Vince Young. They come back and mention that this player can throw or run. I know a measurable like this might not really be a factor in games, but ...you know, just for shits and giggles: guess what this player's 40 time was?

Now I'm not saying that it's bad for his position...or even that it's relevant to how he will produce. But it may be relevant if you're going to compare his
running ability to Vince Young. They specified running ability. The player in question, by the way, is our old friend JaMarcus Russell. In case you're wondering, Young's 40 time was a disappointing 4.58. ESPN called it disappointing right here.

Ok, now some will think as I do that ESPN feels they got burned by doubting Vince Young last year, when he turned in a solid rookie season by combining mediocre passing stats with some very good rushing stats, and leading a pretty bad team dangerously close to the playoffs. So ESPN saw a quarterback who looks kind of like Young from a nice big, southern, state school that upset an early season favorite in a bowl game and wants to get on the bandwagon early. If so I've done my job.

Others of you will, rightly so, object to me using 40 times as a basis for comparison (oddly enough Brady Quinn's was 4.73). Good, I'm glad. So let's take a look at college stats. Again, this is a rushing comparison because that's the thing that ESPN did that made me cry. I'm only including this year for Russell because this is the only one where it wasn't negative.

Young (2005): 1050 yds / 6.8 ypc / 12 tds
(2004): 1079 yds / 6.5 ypc / 14 tds

Russell (2006): 142 yds / 2.7 ypc / 1 td

Again, I'm not saying that this should greatly impact his ability to be a successful passer...although it would probably help [ALL THINGS EQUAL] if he had Young-esque speed. What I'm saying, asking really is why the fuck can't ESPN see that he doesn't? Do they assume that his athletic ability resembles that of Young solely because of race or what? The whole thing sounds Dusty-Baker dumb to me. Again, for serious discussion of why sample size concerns should play a role in not getting bat-shit crazy excited about Russell compared to Quinn who is at least as appealing see below...but this whole segment irritated me far too much to ignore.


GTripp said...

The QB projection system created by David Lewin does not have any sort of an adjustment for running ability. But if Michael Vick is any evidence, running ability will not make up for a complete passing ineptitude.

Robocats said...

Oh almost definitely not. Young's decent, but if mildly exaggerated success was due because he passed the ball at a level that was decent for a rookie AND ran. Had he been Alex Smith rookie-year bad, he still would have been really bad.

Russell may even turn out to be a better passer than Young, but comparing his KINDS of abilities to Young is straight-up crazy.

GTripp said...

I still think its crazy to give Young the ROY instead of Jones-Drew or Leinart (or even Colston). What were they thinking?