Wednesday, March 21, 2007

Turn Off ESPN Readers, there's someone I'd like you to meet. You'll be working with him a lot.

Pete Prisco!

Matt's welcome, but Texans mistakenly take keys from Carr

Wow. We're not even to the article and Prisco is already wrong.

This may be unprecidented, even for him!

Let me just say that I am a huge Matt Schaub guy. I think he has the tools to be a big-time NFL passer.

Let me just say that I'm really not a huge Pete Prisco guy. I do like that he keeps his opinions seperate from outside influence. It's a remarkable quality, espicially considering today's style of generic sportswriting. However, the outcome is that in most cases, what Prisco thinks ends up being really, really bizarre. I haven't even read the article beyond this point yet, and I can guarentee you this will be a prime example.

Okay Pete, I'm ready for ya.

But I think the Houston Texans are making a mistake by giving up on David Carr.

I know. I read the title of the article.

The Texans agreed to trade a pair of second-round picks to the Atlanta Falcons and swap first-round spots this year -- eight to 10 -- for Schaub, a player many personnel people think can be a 10-year starter in the league.

The deal is contingent on Schaub agreeing to a new deal with the Texans before being traded.

I have to wonder if Schaub, a third-year player, is really a better option than Carr?

I have to wonder right up front if you've ever seen David Carr play. The best pro-Carr argument is that he hasn't been given a chance. This isn't entirely false, as Carr has been under impossible duress since he came into this league. But some of that duress is on Carr.

David Carr's DPARs

Year's above league average in DVOA=0. His 2004 was ever so close (kinda reminds me of JP Losman's 2006), but that regression in 2005 cannot(!!) be completely pinned on his teammates. Certainly it wasn't all him, but the best explination is that he had a lucky 2004 season, and a real unlucky 2005 season. But he also regressed between those years.

Plus the QB Projection System doesn't like him. He's got the potential to be a very efficient veteran caretaker, but that's about it.

Or are the Texans guilty of thinking that somebody outside the organization is better than the incumbent? Have they fallen for the allure of something new just for the sake of having something different when the reality is, they're just missing the good points about the person they have?

I think that's the case.

How DARE they think that they could improve upon DAVID CARR. It's common speculation in league circles that David Carr is, in fact, the messiah! He could show us how dominant of a player he is ANY year now!@#$ How can the Texans pass on this kind of potential!!!111!!11one.

Stupid team. They've fallen for the "allure" of trying to improve their roster. Don't they know that they can draft Adrian Peterson and MAKE UP for David Carr's lack of production elsewhere?! Geez Louis, they are missing the whole point of offense. You can run the ball and play good defense, and pay David Carr $8 million a year to complete 67% of his passes to Dominick Williams and Owen Daniels on a weekly basis. THIS IS WHY THE TEXANS CAN'T WIN. It's not because they couldn't run the ball or play good defense. It's because they didn't believe in David Carr!

But like I said, I like Schaub a lot.

Wait, what? Pete Prisco, pick a damn side!

Some wonder what Schaub has done to deserve his lofty status as a potential quarterback,

Schaub completed 67%(!) over 32 starts at Virginia. The QB projection system would love him...if he qualified. For whatever reason, the scouts did not give Schaub a top 2 round grade, so the projection system tends to be a little less accurate with regards to him. It guarentees nothing about 3rd round picks.

but you need only look at his 2005 start against the New England Patriots to get an idea of how good he can be as a starter.

In that game, Schaub threw for 298 yards, three touchdowns and had a passer rating of 112.1. That's sensational against a Bill Belichick defense.

The doubters will say that it's just one game.

Only Pete Prisco could argue both sides and still fail to be right.

Oh, I forgot, it's just one game.

What happens when opponents really prepare for him on a regular basis? That's fair. Will it be like a pitcher in baseball who excels the first time around the league and then gets figured out the next time around?

Prisco should probably NOT bring baseball into this considering his incomplete mastery of the sport he's paid to write about. Also, STOP TRYING TO "ANSWER" YOUR CRITICS BY MAKING TERRIBLE ARGUMENTS AGAINST YOUR OWN THAT ARE SO BAD THAT EVEN YOU CAN SHOOT THEM DOWN!!!

My opinion is Schaub will be good. The Falcons people I talked to agreed, but they realize that they had to make the deal or they could have lost him next year without getting anything in return. Michael Vick is their quarterback, even if not everybody in-house agrees he should be. His contract, coupled with his buddy-buddy relationship with the owner, makes it that way, which is why Schaub is on his way to Houston where he will take over for Carr.

And because he's an improvement over David Carr.

When the Texans used the first pick in the 2002 draft on Carr, they did so with the obvious intention of having him be their franchise passer for a long, long time. They expected growing pains, and there were.

Playing behind a sieve-like offensive line, he was sacked 76 times as a rookie. In five seasons, he's been sacked 249 times. That's a lot of shots, and it can make a player gun-shy.

If the QB Projection system had existed in 2002, we would have known that Carr wasn't going to be a special player. It's data from players like Carr that helped David Lewin create the system last year.

Not only that, Carr's had few options other than Andre Johnson, who came three years ago. Teams doubled Johnson on a regular basis, which limited the spots for Carr to throw. And the running game never had a real feature back, while the line's still in the bottom third of the league.

Who could have succeeded under those conditions?

Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Hasselbeck, Marc Bulger, and Tom Brady in that order. All would have struggled to some degree behind that level of pressure. But all would have had more success than David Carr.

Carr had his moments. In 2004, he threw for a career-high 3,531 yards and 16 touchdowns. Last season, he had a 68.3 completion percentage. That was better thanPeyton Manning, Tom Brady, Carson Palmer, and Drew Brees. That's impressive.

Sage Rosenfels completed 69% in the same offense. Mark Brunell completed 63.4% in 9 starts this year. His backup, Jason Campbell, completed only 53% in the exact same offense with better pass protection. Brunell's feat is considerably more impressive than Carr's.

Rosenfels, in fact, played much better this year than Carr. He nearly accrued more total value than Carr, posting a 9.6 DPAR in only 38 passes(!) (Carr threw 440). A lot of that was Carr's incomplete passes turning into INTs, a function of luck, but the point is Rosenfels>Carr.

Of course, neither Carr or Rosenfels should be damned for doing their jobs well. High completion % is always good. This, more than anything, says that Gary Kubiak really knows how to call an offense. Neither one of his QB is anything special. Schaub has a chance to be special. That's why he traded for him.

Yet the perception is Carr is a bum. He can't win. He won't make the throws. He won't get rid of the football.

Carr's not a bum. He's a caretaker. I would define a "bum" as a player below replacement level. Carr was a "bum" in 2005, but that was likely a fluke. Those other arguments suck. People are stupid.

Prisco is probably way more stupid than those people.

There is way too much talent there to give up on him.

Some coaches who worked with Carr in the past, including former Texans offensive coordinator Chris Palmer, think he can be a good starter in the league.

Chris Palmer doesn't have a job due in part to this opinion.

Does he have faults? Sure, he does. The word is he's not a great leader. Teammates notice that he leaves the facility early after practice, rather than staying around to watch film. But, according to Palmer, Carr took the film home and did the work. Palmer said he even tested him by putting things on the film that he might not expect just to make sure he watched it. He always passed.

There was also talk that Carr was babied by the Dom Capers regime.

So, you...agree with these aligations then. David Carr sucks because...he was overprotected by his original coaching staff? He sucked because Chris Palmer and Dom Capers were all over his nuts instead of giving him the coaching he needed? He needed tough love to bring out his mystical hidden talent? This is your thesis then, Pete?

That changed last season with new coach Gary Kubiak, and Carr actually played pretty well. Maybe that's what he needs.

Carr posted a DPAR of 10.4 in 2006. His DVOA was significantly below average.

Some other QB's who "played well" last year (according to Prisco):

Kurt Warner
JP Losman
Eli Manning
Jake Delhomme
David Garrard

All of which were better than Carr.

Giving up on Carr is a mistake for the Houston franchise. Whoever gets him will be getting a player who can be a Super Bowl quarterback. The reality is he will probably be better with a change of scenery.

He might post a DPAR in the 20's! He's got league average potential!

Also, "Super Bowl Quarterback" means nothing. Especially if you are David Carr. It means your team won the super bowl. That's it. It's not a compliment to your skill.

He just needs to get to a spot where there is talent around him, a place that will allow him to show the skills that are indeed there.

Schaub will be fine, but the Texans already had a quarterback with winning skills on their roster. And he wouldn't have cost them two second-round picks and two spots in the first round, either.

I don't know where you're proposing he go to showcase his skills, Pete Prisco, but rest assured that any team that fits your criteria already has a better QB on the roster than David Carr.

Yes, that was a hefty price to pay for a 2004 3rd round pick. They could have traded up for Brady Quinn instead. It would have used up thier first round pick that now resides in the 10 hole, but they would have kept at least one of those 2nd rounders, and he's more of a sure thing than Schaub according to the projection system. But I don't see how anyone can fault the Texans for trying to improve their QB situation.

Houston panicked. Why? The allure of something new clouded the Texans' vision.

They'll realize eventually that the one they had wasn't all that bad after all.

Why? How? What?

Since you spent the entire article admitting that Schaub was going to be good, and the rest defending Carr's crapitude as "not getting a chance" and just blatently misevalutating his performance this season, how can you expect the QB situation not to improve there.

Surely you wouldn't have expected Carr's numbers to improve if his protection didn't. And surely you must assume that the Texans' pass pro will improve at some point in the future. So some QB is going to reap benefits that David Carr never had. Chances are this player will be much better than David Carr.

So what the hell are you saying here? They were getting better production from SAGE ROSENFELS than David Carr! What will happen in the future to make them wish they still had David Carr. They win 7 games next year? I bet they'll be killing themselves over this move!

You're shamelessly defending Carr against a move that's going to benefit him when he gets out of Houston. What the crap is your problem?!

That was the long version. Hope you enjoyed it.

Here's the short version: Pete Prisco is always wrong.

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